Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis

This paper presents a macroeconomic model that is both a completely specified dynamic general equilibrium model and a probabilistic model for time series data. We view the model as a potential competitor to existing ISLM-based models that continue to be used for actual policy analysis. Our approach is also an alternative to recent efforts to calibrate real business cycle models. In contrast to these existing models, the one we present embodies all the following important characteristics: i) It generates a complete multivariate stochastic process model for the data it aims to explain, and the full specification is used in the maximum likelihood estimation of the model; ii) It integrates modeling of nominal variables -- money stock, price level, wage level, and nominal interest rate -- with modeling real variables; iii) It contains a Keynesian investment function, breaking the tight relationship of the return on investment with the capital-output ratio; iv) It treats both monetary and fiscal policy explicitly; v) It is based on dynamic optimizing behavior of the private agents in the model. Flexible-price and sticky-price versions of the model are estimated and their fits are evaluated relative to a naive model of no-change in the variables and to an unrestricted VAR. The paper displays the model's implications for the dynamic responses to structural shocks, including policy shocks, and evaluates the relative importance of various shocks for determining economic fluctuations.

Applications of GIS analyses and ecological approaches to paleolithic sites in Portugal.

Developments in landscape approaches to archaeological research have been greatly advanced by the use of geospatial technologies. Despite this boon, certain questions remain where the spatial distributions of archaeological material are complicated by other factors. Geomorphic processes significantly hinder site survivability and visibility, and complicate fieldwork. Such is the case for Paleolithic archaeological sites in Portugal, where the current landscape has been drastically altered since Paleolithic human occupation at the Last Glacial Maximum. The challenge to landscape-scale approaches is to provide a bridge between long-term environmental factors and smaller-scale evidence for human-ecosystem interaction. This requires that adaptations be made to landscape approaches and applications of geospatial technology, and adjustments to conceptual frameworks regarding site distribution are necessary in order to understand locality patterns. This work focuses on the results of geospatial analysis of data from recent archaeological investigations of the Paleolithic in the coastal region of Estremadura in Portugal, and places them within conceptual frameworks that account for severe environmental changes and limited site survivability

What Does Monetary Policy Do?

macroeconomics, monetary policy

Constructing an advanced software tool for planetary atmospheric modeling

Scientific model building can be an intensive and painstaking process, often involving the development of large and complex computer programs. Despite the effort involved, scientific models cannot be easily distributed and shared with other scientists. In general, implemented scientific models are complex, idiosyncratic, and difficult for anyone but the original scientist/programmer to understand. We believe that advanced software techniques can facilitate both the model building and model sharing process. In this paper, we describe a prototype for a scientific modeling software tool that serves as an aid to the scientist in developing and using models. This tool includes an interactive intelligent graphical interface, a high level domain specific modeling language, a library of physics equations and experimental datasets, and a suite of data display facilities. Our prototype has been developed in the domain of planetary atmospheric modeling, and is being used to construct models of Titan's atmosphere

Investigating the clinical advantages of a robotic linac equipped with a multileaf collimator in the treatment of brain and prostate cancer patients.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of a commercially available CyberKnife system with a multileaf collimator (CK-MLC) for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) and standard fractionated intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) applications. Ten prostate and ten intracranial cases were planned for the CK-MLC. Half of these cases were compared with clinically approved SBRT plans generated for the CyberKnife with circular collimators, and the other half were compared with clinically approved standard fractionated IMRT plans generated for conventional linacs. The plans were compared on target coverage, conformity, homogeneity, dose to organs at risk (OAR), low dose to the surrounding tissue, total monitor units (MU), and treatment time. CK-MLC plans generated for the SBRT cases achieved more homogeneous dose to the target than the CK plans with the circular collimators, for equivalent coverage, conformity, and dose to OARs. Total monitor units were reduced by 40% to 70% and treatment time was reduced by half. The CK-MLC plans generated for the standard fractionated cases achieved prescription isodose lines between 86% and 93%, which was 2%-3% below the plans generated for conventional linacs. Compared to standard IMRT plans, the total MU were up to three times greater for the prostate (whole pelvis) plans and up to 1.4 times greater for the intracranial plans. Average treatment time was 25 min for the whole pelvis plans and 19 min for the intracranial cases. The CK-MLC system provides significant improvements in treatment time and target homogeneity compared to the CK system with circular collimators, while maintaining high conformity and dose sparing to critical organs. Standard fractionated plans for large target volumes (>100 cm3) were generated that achieved high prescription isodose levels. The CK-MLC system provides more efficient SRS and SBRT treatments and, in select clinical cases, might be a potential alternative for standard fractionated treatments. PACS numbers: 87.56.nk, 87.56.bd

Chatter, process damping, and chip segmentation in turning: A signal processing approach

An increasing number of aerospace components are manufactured from titanium and nickel alloys that are difficult to machine due to their thermal and mechanical properties. This limits the metal removal rates that can be achieved from the production process. However, under these machining conditions the phenomenon of process damping can be exploited to help avoid self-excited vibrations known as regenerative chatter. This means that greater widths of cut can be taken so as to increase the metal removal rate, and hence offset the cutting speed restrictions that are imposed by the thermo-mechanical properties of the material. However, there is little or no consensus as to the underlying mechanisms that cause process damping. The present study investigates two process damping mechanisms that have previously been proposed in the machining literature: the tool flank/workpiece interference effect, and the short regenerative effect. A signal processing procedure is employed to identify flank/workpiece interference from experimental data. Meanwhile, the short regenerative model is solved using a new frequency domain approach that yields additional insight into its stabilising effect. However, analysis and signal processing of the experimentally obtained data reveals that neither of these models can fully explain the increases in stability that are observed in practice. Meanwhile, chip segmentation effects were observed in a number of measurements, and it is suggested that segmentation could play an important role in the process-damped chatter stability of these materials

Mars rover sample return: An exobiology science scenario

A mission designed to collect and return samples from Mars will provide information regarding its composition, history, and evolution. At the same time, a sample return mission generates a technical challenge. Sophisticated, semi-autonomous, robotic spacecraft systems must be developed in order to carry out complex operations at the surface of a very distant planet. An interdisciplinary effort was conducted to consider how much a Mars mission can be realistically structured to maximize the planetary science return. The focus was to concentrate on a particular set of scientific objectives (exobiology), to determine the instrumentation and analyses required to search for biological signatures, and to evaluate what analyses and decision making can be effectively performed by the rover in order to minimize the overhead of constant communication between Mars and the Earth. Investigations were also begun in the area of machine vision to determine whether layered sedimentary structures can be recognized autonomously, and preliminary results are encouraging