Predicting Patterns of Distant Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients following Local Regional Therapy Using Machine Learning

Up to 30% of breast cancer (BC) patients will develop distant metastases (DM), for which there is no cure. Here, statistical and machine learning (ML) models were developed to estimate the risk of site-specific DM following local-regional therapy. This retrospective study cohort included 175 patients diagnosed with invasive BC who later developed DM. Clinicopathological information was collected for analysis. Outcome variables were the first site of metastasis (brain, bone or visceral) and the time interval (months) to developing DM. Multivariate statistical analysis and ML-based multivariable gradient boosting machines identified factors associated with these outcomes. Machine learning models predicted the site of DM, demonstrating an area under the curve of 0.74, 0.75, and 0.73 for brain, bone and visceral sites, respectively. Overall, most patients (57%) developed bone metastases, with increased odds associated with estrogen receptor (ER) positivity. Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) positivity and non-anthracycline chemotherapy regimens were associated with a decreased risk of bone DM, while brain metastasis was associated with ER-negativity. Furthermore, non-anthracycline chemotherapy alone was a significant predictor of visceral metastasis. Here, clinicopathologic and treatment variables used in ML prediction models predict the first site of metastasis in BC. Further validation may guide focused patient-specific surveillance practices.</jats:p

Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model

We constructed a decision-analytic and cost-minimization model to compare monthly maternal serological screening for congenital toxoplasmosis, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. We use sensitivity analysis to evaluate robustness of results. We find that universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French (Paris) protocol, leads to savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, incidence of primary T. gondii infection during pregnancy, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of$12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities

Search of the Orion spur for continuous gravitational waves using a loosely coherent algorithm on data from LIGO interferometers

We report results of a wideband search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars within the Orion spur towards both the inner and outer regions of our Galaxy. As gravitational waves interact very weakly with matter, the search is unimpeded by dust and concentrations of stars. One search disk (A) is 6.87° in diameter and centered on 20h10m54.71s+33°33′25.29′′, and the other (B) is 7.45° in diameter and centered on 8h35m20.61s-46°49′25.151′′. We explored the frequency range of 50-1500 Hz and frequency derivative from 0 to -5×10-9 Hz/s. A multistage, loosely coherent search program allowed probing more deeply than before in these two regions, while increasing coherence length with every stage. Rigorous follow-up parameters have winnowed the initial coincidence set to only 70 candidates, to be examined manually. None of those 70 candidates proved to be consistent with an isolated gravitational-wave emitter, and 95% confidence level upper limits were placed on continuous-wave strain amplitudes. Near 169 Hz we achieve our lowest 95% C.L. upper limit on the worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h0 of 6.3×10-25, while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.4×10-24 for all polarizations and sky locations. © 2016 American Physical Society

Pitfalls in machine learning‐based assessment of tumor‐infiltrating lymphocytes in breast cancer: a report of the international immuno‐oncology biomarker working group

The clinical significance of the tumor-immune interaction in breast cancer (BC) has been well established, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) have emerged as a predictive and prognostic biomarker for patients with triple-negative (estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 negative) breast cancer (TNBC) and HER2-positive breast cancer. How computational assessment of TILs can complement manual TIL-assessment in trial- and daily practices is currently debated and still unclear. Recent efforts to use machine learning (ML) for the automated evaluation of TILs show promising results. We review state-of-the-art approaches and identify pitfalls and challenges by studying the root cause of ML discordances in comparison to manual TILs quantification. We categorize our findings into four main topics; (i) technical slide issues, (ii) ML and image analysis aspects, (iii) data challenges, and (iv) validation issues. The main reason for discordant assessments is the inclusion of false-positive areas or cells identified by performance on certain tissue patterns, or design choices in the computational implementation. To aid the adoption of ML in TILs assessment, we provide an in-depth discussion of ML and image analysis including validation issues that need to be considered before reliable computational reporting of TILs can be incorporated into the trial- and routine clinical management of patients with TNBC

Search of the Orion spur for continuous gravitational waves using a loosely coherent algorithm on data from LIGO interferometers

We report results of a wideband search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars within the Orion spur towards both the inner and outer regions of our Galaxy. As gravitational waves interact very weakly with matter, the search is unimpeded by dust and concentrations of stars. One search disk (A) is 6.87° in diameter and centered on 20[superscript h]10[superscript m]54.71[superscript s] + 33°33[superscript ′]25.29[superscript ′′], and the other (B) is 7.45° in diameter and centered on 8[superscript h]35[superscript m]20.61[superscript s] - 46°49[superscript ′]25.151[superscript ′′]. We explored the frequency range of 50–1500 Hz and frequency derivative from 0 to -5 × 10[superscript -9]  Hz/s. A multistage, loosely coherent search program allowed probing more deeply than before in these two regions, while increasing coherence length with every stage. Rigorous follow-up parameters have winnowed the initial coincidence set to only 70 candidates, to be examined manually. None of those 70 candidates proved to be consistent with an isolated gravitational-wave emitter, and 95% confidence level upper limits were placed on continuous-wave strain amplitudes. Near 169 Hz we achieve our lowest 95% C.L. upper limit on the worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h[subscript 0] of 6.3 × 10[superscript -25], while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.4 × 10[superscript -24] for all polarizations and sky locations.National Science Foundation (U.S.)United States. National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationCarnegie TrustDavid & Lucile Packard FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Search for intermediate mass black hole binaries in the first observing run of Advanced LIGO

During their first observational run, the two Advanced LIGO detectors attained an unprecedented sensitivity, resulting in the first direct detections of gravitational-wave signals produced by stellar-mass binary black hole systems. This paper reports on an all-sky search for gravitational waves (GWs) from merging intermediate mass black hole binaries (IMBHBs). The combined results from two independent search techniques were used in this study: the first employs a matched-filter algorithm that uses a bank of filters covering the GW signal parameter space, while the second is a generic search for GW transients (bursts). No GWs from IMBHBs were detected; therefore, we constrain the rate of several classes of IMBHB mergers. The most stringent limit is obtained for black holes of individual mass 100 M ⊙, with spins aligned with the binary orbital angular momentum. For such systems, the merger rate is constrained to be less than 0.93 Gpc−3yr−1 in comoving units at the 90% confidence level, an improvement of nearly 2 orders of magnitude over previous upper limits

First low-frequency Einstein@Home all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves in Advanced LIGO data

We report results of a deep all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars in data from the first Advanced LIGO observing run. This search investigates the low frequency range of Advanced LIGO data, between 20 and 100 Hz, much of which was not explored in initial LIGO. The search was made possible by the computing power provided by the volunteers of the Einstein@Home project. We find no significant signal candidate and set the most stringent upper limits to date on the amplitude of gravitational wave signals from the target population, corresponding to a sensitivity depth of 48.7 [1/root Hz]. At the frequency of best strain sensitivity, near 100 Hz, we set 90% confidence upper limits of 1.8 x 10(-25). At the low end of our frequency range, 20 Hz, we achieve upper limits of 3.9 x 10(-24). At 55 Hz we can exclude sources with ellipticities greater than 10(-5) within 100 pc of Earth with fiducial value of the principal moment of inertia of 10(38) kg m(2)

First low frequency all-sky search for continuous gravitational wave signals

In this paper we present the results of the first low frequency all-sky search of continuous gravitational wave signals conducted on Virgo VSR2 and VSR4 data. The search covered the full sky, a frequency range between 20 and 128 Hz with a range of spin-down between −1.0×10−10 and +1.5×10−11  Hz/s, and was based on a hierarchical approach. The starting point was a set of short fast Fourier transforms, of length 8192 s, built from the calibrated strain data. Aggressive data cleaning, in both the time and frequency domains, has been done in order to remove, as much as possible, the effect of disturbances of instrumental origin. On each data set a number of candidates has been selected, using the FrequencyHough transform in an incoherent step. Only coincident candidates among VSR2 and VSR4 have been examined in order to strongly reduce the false alarm probability, and the most significant candidates have been selected. The criteria we have used for candidate selection and for the coincidence step greatly reduce the harmful effect of large instrumental artifacts. Selected candidates have been subject to a follow-up by constructing a new set of longer fast Fourier transforms followed by a further incoherent analysis, still based on the FrequencyHough transform. No evidence for continuous gravitational wave signals was found, and therefore we have set a population-based joint VSR2-VSR4 90% confidence level upper limit on the dimensionless gravitational wave strain in the frequency range between 20 and 128 Hz. This is the first all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves conducted, on data of ground-based interferometric detectors, at frequencies below 50 Hz. We set upper limits in the range between about 10−24 and 2×10−23 at most frequencies. Our upper limits on signal strain show an improvement of up to a factor of ∼2 with respect to the results of previous all-sky searches at frequencies below 80 H

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10–500 s in a frequency band of 40–1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10[superscript -5] and 9.4×10[superscript -4]  Mpc[superscript -3] yr[superscript -1] at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves.Carnegie TrustDavid & Lucile Packard FoundationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationNational Science Foundation (U.S.

Search of the Orion spur for continuous gravitational waves using a loosely coherent algorithm on data from LIGO interferometers

We report results of a wideband search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars within the Orion spur towards both the inner and outer regions of our Galaxy. As gravitational waves interact very weakly with matter, the search is unimpeded by dust and concentrations of stars. One search disk (A) is 6.87° in diameter and centered on 20[superscript h]10[superscript m]54.71[superscript s] + 33°33[superscript ′]25.29[superscript ′′], and the other (B) is 7.45° in diameter and centered on 8[superscript h]35[superscript m]20.61[superscript s] - 46°49[superscript ′]25.151[superscript ′′]. We explored the frequency range of 50–1500 Hz and frequency derivative from 0 to -5 × 10[superscript -9]  Hz/s. A multistage, loosely coherent search program allowed probing more deeply than before in these two regions, while increasing coherence length with every stage. Rigorous follow-up parameters have winnowed the initial coincidence set to only 70 candidates, to be examined manually. None of those 70 candidates proved to be consistent with an isolated gravitational-wave emitter, and 95% confidence level upper limits were placed on continuous-wave strain amplitudes. Near 169 Hz we achieve our lowest 95% C.L. upper limit on the worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h[subscript 0] of 6.3 × 10[superscript -25], while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.4 × 10[superscript -24] for all polarizations and sky locations.National Science Foundation (U.S.)United States. National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationCarnegie TrustDavid & Lucile Packard FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundatio