PUTTING THE "ECON" INTO ECONOMETRICS

Should econometricians always incorporate economic theory in their models or only when unrestricted estimators are found to violate an inviolable theory? Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that econometricians should use economic theory to the fullest extent possible. To paraphrase Leamer's classic article, we should put the "econ" into econometrics.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.Commodity prices, Forecast evaluation, Value of information, Consumer/Household Economics,

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS ON ACREAGE RESPONSE OVER TIME: THE CASE OF CORN PRODUCTION IN IOWA

Corn acreage response in Iowa is examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Separate estimates of the permanent portion of the parameter vector are obtained for each year over the period 1957-82. The estimated elasticities are grouped into “program” and “nonprogram” periods. The results indicate corn acreage response is more own-price elastics, and the elasticity is less variable under government acreage control programs than under a “nonprogram” regime. The assumption of parameter constancy is shown to be inappropriate for modeling Iowa corn acreage response over time.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

A controlled study of cold dust content in galaxies from z=0−2z=0-2

At $z=1-3$, the formation of new stars is dominated by dusty galaxies whose far-IR emission indicates they contain colder dust than local galaxies of a similar luminosity. We explore the reasons for the evolving IR emission of similar galaxies over cosmic time using: 1) Local galaxies from GOALS $(L_{\rm IR}=10^{11}-10^{12}\,L_\odot)$; 2) Galaxies at $z\sim0.1-0.5$ from the 5MUSES ($L_{\rm IR}=10^{10}-10^{12}\,L_\odot$); 3) IR luminous galaxies spanning $z=0.5-3$ from GOODS and Spitzer xFLS ($L_{\rm IR}>10^{11}\,L_\odot$). All samples have Spitzer mid-IR spectra, and Herschel and ground-based submillimeter imaging covering the full IR spectral energy distribution, allowing us to robustly measure $L_{\rm IR}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}$, $T_{\rm dust}$, and $M_{\rm dust}$ for every galaxy. Despite similar infrared luminosities, $z>0.5$ dusty star forming galaxies have a factor of 5 higher dust masses and 5K colder temperatures. The increase in dust mass is linked with an increase in the gas fractions with redshift, and we do not observe a similar increase in stellar mass or star formation efficiency. $L_{160}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}/L_{70}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}$, a proxy for $T_{\rm dust}$, is strongly correlated with $L_{\rm IR}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}/M_{\rm dust}$ independently of redshift. We measure merger classification and galaxy size for a subsample, and there is no obvious correlation between these parameters and $L_{\rm IR}^{\rm \scriptscriptstyle SF}/M_{\rm dust}$ or $L_{160}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}/L_{70}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}$. In dusty star forming galaxies, the change in $L_{\rm IR}^{\rm\scriptscriptstyle SF}/M_{\rm dust}$ can fully account for the observed colder dust temperatures, suggesting that any change in the spatial extent of the interstellar medium is a second order effect.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 21 pages, 11 figure

Enantioselective Intramolecular C-H Amination Catalyzed by Engineered Cytochrome P450 Enzymes In Vitro and In Vivo

Nitrogen activation: Though P450 enzymes are masters of oxygen activation and insertion into C-H bonds, their ability to use nitrogen for the same purpose has so far not been explored. Engineered variants of cytochrome P450_(BM3) have now been found to catalyze intramolecular C-H aminations in azide substrates. Mutations to two highly conserved residues significantly increased this activity

CANDELS Observations Of The Structural Properties Of Cluster Galaxies At Z=1.62

We discuss the structural and morphological properties of galaxies in a z = 1.62 proto-cluster using near-IR imaging data from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 data of the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). The cluster galaxies exhibit a clear color-morphology relation: galaxies with colors of quiescent stellar populations generally have morphologies consistent with spheroids, and galaxies with colors consistent with ongoing star formation have disk-like and irregular morphologies. The size distribution of the quiescent cluster galaxies shows a deficit of compact (less than or similar to 1 kpc), massive galaxies compared to CANDELS field galaxies at z = 1.6. As a result, the cluster quiescent galaxies have larger average effective sizes compared to field galaxies at fixed mass at greater than 90% significance. Combined with data from the literature, the size evolution of quiescent cluster galaxies is relatively slow from z similar or equal to 1.6 to the present, growing as (1 + z)(-0.6 +/- 0.1). If this result is generalizable, then it implies that physical processes associated with the denser cluster region seem to have caused accelerated size growth in quiescent galaxies prior to z = 1.6 and slower subsequent growth at z < 1.6 compared to galaxies in the lower density field. The quiescent cluster galaxies at z = 1.6 have higher ellipticities compared to lower redshift samples at fixed mass, and their surface-brightness profiles suggest that they contain extended stellar disks. We argue that the cluster galaxies require dissipationless (i.e., gas-poor or "dry") mergers to reorganize the disk material and to match the relations for ellipticity, stellar mass, size, and color of early-type galaxies in z < 1 clusters.NASA NAS5-26555HST GO-12060NASA through from the Space Telescope Science Institute GO-12060European Research CouncilRoyal SocietyTexas AM UniversityGeorge P. and Cynthia Woods Institute for Fundamental Physics and AstronomyAstronom

Bar Evolution Over the Last Eight Billion Years: A Constant Fraction of Strong Bars in GEMS

One third of present-day spirals host optically visible strong bars that drive their dynamical evolution. However, the fundamental question of how bars evolve over cosmological times has yet to be addressed, and even the frequency of bars at intermediate redshifts remains controversial. We investigate the frequency of bars out to z~1.0 drawing on a sample of 1590 galaxies from the GEMS survey, which provides morphologies from HST ACS two-color images, and highly accurate redshifts from the COMBO-17 survey. We identify spiral galaxies using the Sersic index, concentration parameter, and rest-frame color. We characterize bars and disks by fitting ellipses to F606W and F850LP images, taking advantage of the two bands to minimize bandpass shifting. We exclude highly inclined (i>60 deg) galaxies to ensure reliable morphological classifications, and apply completeness cuts of M_v <= -19.3 and -20.6. More than 40% of the bars that we detect have semi major axes a<0.5" and would be easily missed in earlier surveys without the small PSF of ACS. The bars that we can reliably detect are fairly strong (with ellipticities e>=0.4) and have a in the range ~1.2-13 kpc. We find that the optical fraction of such strong bars remains at ~(30% +- 6%) from the present-day out to look-back times of 2-6 Gyr (z~0.2-0.7) and 6-8 Gyr (z~0.7-1.0); it certainly shows no sign of a drastic decline at z>0.7. Our findings of a large and similar bar fraction at these three epochs favor scenarios in which cold gravitationally unstable disks are already in place by z~1, and where on average bars have a long lifetime (well above 2 Gyr). The distributions of structural bar properties in the two slices are, however, not statistically identical and therefore allow for the possibility that the bar strengths and sizes may evolve over time.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, to appear in Nov 2004 issue. Minor revisions,updated reference

A GIP Receptor Agonist Exhibits β-Cell Anti-Apoptotic Actions in Rat Models of Diabetes Resulting in Improved β-Cell Function and Glycemic Control

The gastrointestinal hormone GIP promotes pancreatic islet function and exerts pro-survival actions on cultured beta-cells. However, GIP also promotes lipogenesis, thus potentially restricting its therapeutic use. The current studies evaluated the effects of a truncated GIP analog, D-Ala(2)-GIP(1-30) (D-GIP(1-30)), on glucose homeostasis and beta-cell mass in rat models of diabetes.The insulinotropic and pro-survival potency of D-GIP(1-30) was evaluated in perfused pancreas preparations and cultured INS-1 beta-cells, respectively, and receptor selectivity evaluated using wild type and GIP receptor knockout mice. Effects of D-GIP(1-30) on beta-cell function and glucose homeostasis, in vivo, were determined using Lean Zucker rats, obese Vancouver diabetic fatty rats, streptozotocin treated rats, and obese Zucker diabetic fatty rats, with effects on beta-cell mass determined in histological studies of pancreatic tissue. Lipogenic effects of D-GIP(1-30) were evaluated on cultured 3T3-L1 adipocytes.Acutely, D-GIP(1-30) improved glucose tolerance and insulin secretion. Chronic treatment with D-GIP(1-30) reduced levels of islet pro-apoptotic proteins in Vancouver diabetic fatty rats and preserved beta-cell mass in streptozotocin treated rats and Zucker diabetic fatty rats, resulting in improved insulin responses and glycemic control in each animal model, with no change in body weight. In in vitro studies, D-GIP(1-30) exhibited equivalent potency to GIP(1-42) on beta-cell function and survival, but greatly reduced action on lipoprotein lipase activity in 3T3-L1 adipocytes.These findings demonstrate that truncated forms of GIP exhibit potent anti-diabetic actions, without pro-obesity effects, and that the C-terminus contributes to the lipogenic actions of GIP