Risky Choice and Type-Uncertainty in 'Deal or No Deal?'

This paper uses data from the popular television game-show, "Deal or No Deal?", to analyse the way individuals make choices under risk. In a unique approach to the problem, I present a formal game-theoretical model of the show in which both the contestant and the banker are modelled as strategic players. I use standard techniques to form hypotheses of how rational expected utility-maximisers would behave as players in the game and I test these hypotheses with the relevant choice data. The main result is that an increasing offer function is the result of optimal behaviour when the banker is uncertain about the contestant’s risk attitudes. This result provides a theoretical foundation to the empirical model of the banker that pervades the literature. Estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion are consistent with estimates from other studies and estimates of the discernment parameter suggest contestants have difficulty making choices

School-Based Telemedicine Interventions for Asthma: A Systematic Review.

BackgroundSchool health systems are increasingly investing in telemedicine platforms to address acute and chronic illnesses. Asthma, the most common chronic illness in childhood, is of particular interest given its high burden on school absenteeism.ObjectiveConduct a systematic review evaluating impact of school-based telemedicine programs on improving asthma-related outcomes.Data sourcesPubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, ERIC, PsycINFO, Embase, and Google Scholar.Study eligibility criteriaOriginal research, including quasi-experimental studies, without restriction on the type of telemedicine.ParticipantsSchool-aged pediatric patients with asthma and their families.InterventionsSchool-based telemedicine.Study appraisal and synthesis methodsTwo authors independently screened each abstract, conducted full-text review, assessed study quality, and extracted information. A third author resolved disagreements.ResultsOf 371 articles identified, 7 were included for the review. Outcomes of interest were asthma symptom-free days, asthma symptom frequency, quality of life, health care utilization, school absences, and spirometry. Four of 7 studies reported significant increases in symptom-free days and/or decrease in symptom frequency. Five of 6 reported increases in at least one quality-of-life metric, 2 of 7 reported a decrease in at least 1 health care utilization metric, 1 of 3 showed reductions in school absences, and 1 of 2 reported improvements in spirometry measures.LimitationsVariability in intervention designs and outcome measures make comparisons and quantitative analyses across studies difficult. Only 2 of 7 studies were randomized controlled trials.Conclusions and implications of key findingsHigh-quality evidence supporting the use of school-based telemedicine programs to improve patient outcomes is limited. While available evidence suggests benefit, only 2 comparative trials were identified, and the contribution of telemedicine to these studies' results is unclear

Review: Delivering mental health support within schools and colleges – a thematic synthesis of barriers and facilitators to implementation of indicated psychological interventions for adolescents

Background: Increasing the role of schools and colleges in the provision of mental health services for young people has the potential to improve early intervention and access to treatment. We aimed to understand what factors influence the successful implementation of indicated psychological interventions within schools and colleges to help guide increased provision of mental health support within education settings. Methods: Systematic search for studies that have reported barriers or facilitators to the implementation of indicated interventions for adolescent emotional disorders delivered within schools and further education/sixth form colleges (CRD42018102830). Databases searched were EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, British Nursing Index, ASSIA, ERIC and British Education Index. A thematic synthesis of factors reported to impact implementation was conducted. Results: Two thousand five hundred and sixty-nine records and 177 full texts were screened. Fifty studies were identified for inclusion, all of which were of school-based interventions. Eleven analytic themes were developed encompassing intervention characteristics, organisational capacity, training and technical assistance, provider characteristics and community-level factors. Findings indicate the need to select appropriate interventions, consider logistical challenges of the school context and provide training and supervision to enable staff to deliver interventions with fidelity. However, structural and environmental support is required for these facilitators to have the greatest impact on successful implementation. Conclusions: Implementing indicated school-based mental health interventions is challenging. Those involved in planning school-based mental health initiatives must be alert to the impact of factors on multiple interacting levels. There is a lack of research on implementing mental health support within further education and sixth form colleges

Dynamic Simulation Probabalistic Risk Assessment Model for an Enceladus Sample Return Mission

Enceladus, a moon of Saturn, has geyser-like jets that spray plumes of material into orbit. These jets could enable a free-flying spacecraft to collect samples and return them to Earth for study to determine if they contain the building blocks of life. The Office of Planetary Protection at NASA requires containment of any unsterilized samples and prohibits destructive impact of the spacecraft upon return to Earth, with a sample release probability of less than 1 in 1,000,000 as a recommended goal. This paper describes a probabilistic risk assessment model that uses dynamic simulation techniques to capture the physics-based, time- and state-dependent interactions between the sample return system and the environment, which drive the risk of sample release. The dynamic approach uses a Monte Carlo-style simulation to integrate the many phases and sources of risk for a sample return mission. The model is used to assess the achievability of the planetary protection reliability goal. This is accomplished by performing sensitivity studies assessing the impact of modeling assumptions to identify where uncertainties drive the risk. These results, in turn, are used to examine the feasibility of meeting key design and performance parameters that are needed to achieve the reliability goal for a given architecture with existing technologies

The political constitution at 40

The constitution ‘is no more and no less than what happens’. So wrote Professor John Griffith in the 1978 Chorley Lecture, which was later republished in the Modern Law Review in 1979. It was not the first time that Griffith dangled this tantalizing aphorism before his readers, but it was this lecture that saw it melt into the vocabulary of public law. It might seem trite to spotlight this aphorism from what is a rich and intricate lecture full of important insights as well as memorable phrases. However, as we see it, and writing at the end of March 2019, constitutional practice over the last three years —or, for that matter, the last three months, the last three weeks, or even the last three days—underscores the continuing relevance of Griffith’s insights into the complex and contingent nature of the relationship between law, politics and the constitution

Structural Studies of Bacterioferritin B (BfrB) from Pseudomonas aeruginosa Suggest a Gating Mechanism for Iron Uptake via the Ferroxidase Center

The structure of recombinant P. aeruginosa bacterioferritin B (Pa BfrB) has been solved from crystals grown from protein devoid of core mineral iron (as-isolated) and from protein mineralized with ~ 600 iron atoms (mineralized). Structures were also obtained from crystals grown from mineralized BfrB after soaking them in FeSO4 solution (Fe soak) and in separate experiments after soaking them in FeSO4 solution followed by soaking in crystallization solution (double soak). Although the structures consist of a typical bacterioferritin fold comprised of a nearly spherical 24-mer assembly that binds 12 heme molecules, comparison of microenvironments observed in the distinct structures provided interesting insights: The ferroxidase center in the as-isolated, mineralized and double soak structures is empty. The ferroxidase ligands (except His130) are poised to bind iron with minimal conformational changes. The His130 side chain, on the other hand, must rotate toward the ferroxidase center to coordinate iron. In comparison, the structure obtained from crystals soaked in an FeSO4 solution display a fully occupied ferroxidase center and iron bound to the internal, Fe(in), and external, Fe(out), surfaces of Pa BfrB. The conformation of His130 in this structure is rotated toward the ferroxidase center and coordinates an iron ion. The structures also revealed a pore on the surface of Pa BfrB that likely serves as an entry port for Fe2+ to the ferroxidase center. On its opposite end the pore is capped by the side chain of His130 when it adopts its “gate closed” conformation that enables coordination to a ferroxidase iron. A change to its “gate-open”, non-coordinative conformation, creates a path for the translocation of iron from the ferroxidase center to the interior cavity. These structural observations, together with findings obtained from iron incorporation measurements in solution suggest that the ferroxidase pore is the dominant entry route for the uptake of iron by Pa BfrB. These findings, which are clearly distinct from those made with E. coli Bfr (Crow, A. C., Lawson, T. L., Lewin, A., Moore, G. R., and Le Brun, N. E. (2009) J. Am. Chem. Soc. 131, 6808–6813) indicate that not all bacterioferritins operate in the same manner

Dont Mess with Texas: Getting the Lone Star State to Net-Zero by 2050

The world is decarbonizing. Many countries, companies, and financial institutions have committed to cutting their emissions. Decarbonization commitments have been issued by: 136 countries including Canada, China, and the UK, at least 16 U.S. states including New York, Louisiana, and Virginia, and a third of the largest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the world, including Apple, Amazon, and Walmart, and numerous Texas companies like ExxonMobil, American and Southwest Airlines, Baker Hughes, and AT&T.1–9 These decarbonizing countries, states, cities, and companies are Texas's energy customers. If Texas ignores the challenge to decarbonize its economy, it may eventually face the more difficult challenge of selling carbon-intensive products to customers around the world who do not want them. We are already seeing this scenario beginning to play out with France canceling a liquified natural gas deal from Texas gas producers and both U.S. and international automakers announcing shifts to electric vehicles. Proactive net-zero emissions strategies might allow Texas to maintain energy leadership and grow the economy within a rapidly decarbonizing global marketplace.Thankfully, Texas is uniquely positioned to lead the world in the transition to a carbon-neutral energy economy. With the second highest Gross State Product in the US, the Texas economy is on par with countries like Canada, Italy, or Brazil. Thus, Texas's decisions have global implications. Texas also has an abundant resource of low-carbon energy sources to harness and a world-class workforce with technical capabilities to implement solutions at a large-scale quickly and safely. Texas has a promising opportunity to lead the world towards a better energy system in a way that provides significant economic benefits to the state by leveraging our renewable resources, energy industry expertise, and strong manufacturing and export markets for clean electricity, fuels, and products. The world is moving, with or without Texas, but it is likely to move faster--and Texas will be more prosperous--if Texans lead the way.There are many ways to fully decarbonize the Texas economy across all sectors by 2050. In this analysis, we present a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and four possible pathways to Texas achieving state-wide net-zero emissions by 2050. Figure ES-1 provides a visual comparison of scenario conditions

Judicial Review, Irrationality, and the Legitimacy of Merits-Review

The definition of the irrationality ground of judicial review recognises the constitutional principle of the separation of powers, in allowing for judicial control of the executive only very rarely. The author in a previous article in this study found that the courts, on occasions, had intervened in circumstances where administrative decisions arguably were not irrational. To this end, the purpose of this article is to assess the constitutionality of these seemingly low standards of irrationality. The author does so by reference either to the manner of review employed—the use of the proportionality principle, for example—or the context of the administrative decision under scrutiny, such as the infringement of the applicant’s fundamental rights. The author finds that the cases from the previous article where low standards of irrationality were arguably adopted were, in fact, legitimate according to these chosen methods of evaluation. However, this is an interim conclusion because, for reasons of word length, the author is unable to complete a full assessment here. It is therefore proposed that a subsequent article will continue to examine the constitutionality of these cases. Furthermore, the author will also try and establish a zone of executive decision-making, for reasons of democracy, where the courts are excluded from irrationality review. If the author is unsuccessful in this regard, the final conclusion of this study will inevitably be that low standards of judicial intervention exist without limit—a clear assault on the constitutional principle stated above