Euroland: Strong upswing, risks to price level stability

The Euroland economy is in a strong upswing. Last year, real GDP increased at a rate roughly equal to that of potential output in spite of the export losses in the wake of the crises in various countries of the world. There have been considerable impulses from monetary policy. Because of the strength of the economy, the ECB has started to tighten its policy. Nevertheless, monetary conditions in the euro area are still favorable. In 2000, real GDP is likely to increase by 3.2 percent; this is the highest rate in the past ten years. After a weak start, the economy gained considerable momentum in the course of 1999. While the strong export performance was responsible for the turnaround, domestic demand growth also accelerated somewhat. In the second half of 1999, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, and capacity utilization should have reached its normal level by now. Inflation picked up in the course of 1999 with rates between 1.5 and 2.0 percent, thus coming close to the upper limit of the target range tolerated by the ECB. The driving force so far were higher import prices. Since November, the ECB has raised key interest rates by 100 basis points to 3.50 percent. This is the first tightening of monetary policy since the fall of 1997. The expansion of M3, however, indicates that monetary policy continues to be expansionary. Last year, the reference value for money growth was exceeded considerably. The interest rate hikes must be seen against this background. They were the logical consequence in the concept which is based on money growth. In the present situation, rules for monetary policy also suggest a tightening. The McCallum Rule pertains to the growth rate of the money stock M3 that is compatible with the inflation target and the trend changes in output and velocity. Since early 1999, money growth has been higher than the rate implied by the rule. If this tendency continued, inflation would exceed 2 percent. In order to avoid this, interest rates have to go up. Similarly, the Taylor Rule suggests that interest rates need to be higher because capacity utilization is at its normal level and will rise further. The countries in the euro area have come closer to the target of the Stability and Growth Pact as budget deficits have declined. Next year, fiscal policy will be characterized by tax cuts in a number of countries. The strongest impulse will come from the tax reform in Germany. For Euroland as a whole, the stance of fiscal policy will thus become expansionary. In general, there appears to be a shift in the strategy of fiscal policy: While deficits were reduced on the road to EMU also by increases in taxes and contributions, the revenue/GDP ratio will decline in the coming three years according to the plans of governments. Spending is supposed to decline even more so that deficits will shrink. Such a strategy can be highly recommended. According to empirical estimates, fiscal policy has contributed to the decline in the potential growth rate in the past 30 years by expanding the share of government spending in GDP. While leading indicators point to a strong expansion of economic activity in the near future, several factors will lead to a moderate slowdown of the upswing later this year and in 2001. The recovery in the world economy will lose some momentum and the effect of the weaker euro will gradually fade. Furthermore, the ECB will raise interest rates again. An impulse for the upswing, however, will result from the turnaround of fiscal policy. All in all, real GDP growth will amount to 3.2 percent this year and will go down to 2.8 percent in 2001. The unemployment rate will continue to fall; next year, it'will drop to below 9 percent for the first time since 1992. Consumer prices will rise a lot faster than in 1999. Although the inflation rate will decline somewhat in the course of this year because import prices will moderate, the core rate of inflation will go up due to the marked rise in capacity utilization. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will increase by 1.9 percent this year and by 1.8 percent next year. The weakness of the euro has a stimulating effect on output in the euro area which is equivalent to roughly half a percentage point of GDP. If the trade links of the individual EMU countries with the dollar area are taken into account, it can be shown that the effects are spread more or less symmetrically across the economies. --

Moderate upswing in Euroland

Economic activity in the euro area is recovering. In the second half of 2003, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of roughly 1½ percent. In contrast with other large industrialized countries, economy-wide capacity utilization has not yet increased. Private consumption has remained the major weak point. However, private investment has increased for the first time since 2½ years and exports have risen rapidly, stimulated by the strong upswing in the rest of the world. A number of leading indicators suggest that the recovery in Euroland has gained some momentum since the turn of the year. Despite an expansionary monetary policy and the dynamic world economy, real GDP in the euro area will rise only moderately in comparison with earlier upswings. This is due to two factors. First, potential output growth in the euro area has apparently decelerated. Second, fiscal policy especially in the large euro-area economies is not sustainable. As governments do not have a credible consolidation strategy, the tax burden is likely to increase in the coming years. Against this background private households? income prospects are subdued and, as a consequence, private consumption will remain comparatively weak. The appreciation of the euro has had a considerable effect on economic activity, but it will not stop recovery. The results of our macroeconometric model imply also that the effects will be small in 2005 if, as we assume, the euro/ dollar exchange rate remains unchanged. Some observers urge the ECB to react to the strength of the euro by cutting interest rates. Whether the ECB should do so depends solely on the way in which the appreciation of the euro impacts the targets embedded in its monetary policy strategy. The main issue is whether the appreciation of the euro will push the inflation rate considerably below the target value. Past experience suggests that it would be unwise to assume it will have a strong dampening effect on consumer prices. Since the beginning of monetary union inflation forecasts have usually been too optimistic. All in all, the ECB is well advised not to cut interest rates in response to recent exchange rate developments. Interest rates in the euro area are already unusually low and stimulate economic activity. The Stability and Growth Pact requires the governments in euro-area countries to achieve a balanced budget or a budget surplus in the medium run. The main problem at present is not that budget deficit to GDP ratios are higher than 3 percent in some countries, but that structural deficits are also very high. Seven years after the adoption of the Pact the large countries still have made no progress on the way to a balanced budget. In Germany and France the structural deficits are even higher than before the monetary union. The recent Stability Programs of these countries suggest that the balanced- budget target has been given up altogether. This is eroding the credibility of fiscal policy and constitutes a heavy blow to economic stability in the euro area. Unsound fiscal policy negatively affects expectations in the private sector and is likely to result in a further deceleration of potential output growth. --

Euroland: recovery will slowly gain momentum

Economic activity in the euro area has weakened since last summer. In the second half of 2002, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of around 1 percent only. Economy-wide capacity utilization has further declined and the situation on labor markets has worsened. The increase in consumer prices has calmed down somewhat after an acceleration at the beginning of last year. Still, the inflation rate remains surprisingly high against the background of weak economic activity that has already lasted for two years. Monetary policy in the euro area is clearly expansionary. With only about 0.5 percent, the real interest rate is currently quite low by historical standards. Moreover, the nominal interest rate is well below the rate implied by the standard Taylor rule, even when low estimates of the current size of the output gap and the equilibrium real interest rate are employed in the calculation of the rule. Still, monetary policy is probably not too expansionary. According to theory, the equilibrium real interest rate may be substantially below the long-run average real interest rate in situations such as the current one with depressed income and profit expectations. However, these considerations also imply that the ECB should bring the real interest rate back towards the long-run average once the depressing factors will have vanished. The situation of public finances in the euro area deteriorated further in the course of last year, with the aggregated budget in the countries of the euro area approaching a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP in 2002. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit in the euro area was as high as in 1998, the year immediately before the beginning of the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union. Whereas most countries have in the meantime complied with the goal of the Stability and Growth Pact to at least balance the budget over the medium term, the budget deficit in Germany, France, Italy and Portugal remained high both in actual and in structural terms. The governments of the three largest countries of the euro area are not likely to switch towards a policy of fiscal consolidation based on cuts in primary spending in 2003 and 2004. Moderate wage settlements would be appropriate in the current cyclical situation. However, wage increases have not slowed down over the past year, and are not expected to do so to any meaningful extent this year and next, reflecting the judgment that labor market rigidities will remain significant over the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, as employment is likely to be slow in responding to a recovery in production, the rise in unit labor costs will decelerate considerably, improving the chances that inflation will fall persistently below 2 percent. The leading indicators suggest that economic activity in the euro area will remain weak in the first half of this year. Under the assumption that the war in the Gulf region is of short duration and that the global political situation calms down afterwards, dampening factors from the Iraq conflict are expected to wane. Impulses from expansionary monetary policy will then increasingly take effect and domestic driving forces will gain the upper hand. We expect real GDP to increase by 1.0 percent and by 2.6 percent in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The situation on the labor market will start to improve towards the end of this year only. Inflation will be moderate over the forecast horizon. In 2004, consumer prices will probably rise by 1.9 percent on average, after 2.2 percent this year. --

Mercury (Hg) in meteorites: variations in abundance, thermal release profile, mass-dependent and mass-independent isotopic fractionation

We have measured the concentration, isotopic composition and thermal release profiles of Mercury (Hg) in a suite of meteorites, including both chondrites and achondrites. We find large variations in Hg concentration between different meteorites (ca. 10 ppb to 14'000 ppb), with the highest concentration orders of magnitude above the expected bulk solar system silicates value. From the presence of several different Hg carrier phases in thermal release profiles (150 to 650 {\deg}C), we argue that these variations are unlikely to be mainly due to terrestrial contamination. The Hg abundance of meteorites shows no correlation with petrographic type, or mass-dependent fractionation of Hg isotopes. Most carbonaceous chondrites show mass-independent enrichments in the odd-numbered isotopes 199Hg and 201Hg. We show that the enrichments are not nucleosynthetic, as we do not find corresponding nucleosynthetic deficits of 196Hg. Instead, they can partially be explained by Hg evaporation and redeposition during heating of asteroids from primordial radionuclides and late-stage impact heating. Non-carbonaceous chondrites, most achondrites and the Earth do not show these enrichments in vapor-phase Hg. All meteorites studied here have however isotopically light Hg ({\delta}202Hg = ~-7 to -1) relative to the Earth's average crustal values, which could suggest that the Earth has lost a significant fraction of its primordial Hg. However, the late accretion of carbonaceous chondritic material on the order of ~2%, which has been suggested to account for the water, carbon, nitrogen and noble gas inventories of the Earth, can also contribute most or all of the Earth's current Hg budget. In this case, the isotopically heavy Hg of the Earth's crust would have to be the result of isotopic fractionation between surface and deep-Earth reservoirs.Comment: 43 Pages, 9 Figures. Accepted for publication in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Act

Wachstum des Produktionspotentials in Deutschland bleibt schwach

Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist in Deutschland in den zurückliegenden zehn Jahren durchschnittlich nur um 1,4 Prozent pro Jahr gestiegen, im Zeitraum von 2001 bis 2003 sogar nur um 0,3 Prozent pro Jahr. Die geringen Zuwächse sind nicht allein Ausdruck einer schwachen Auslastung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials, sondern signalisieren auch, dass sich das Wachstum des Produktionspotentials selbst verlangsamt hat. Unseren Schätzungen zufolge lag es am aktuellen Rand nur noch bei etwa 1 Prozent. Vor zehn Jahren hatte es noch 2 Prozent betragen. Die drastische Abnahme des Potentialwachstums ist im Wesentlichen die Folge einer Verlangsamung des Wachstums der Arbeitsproduktivität. Das Arbeitsvolumen nahm zwar in den vergangenen zehn Jahren deutlich ab, der Rückgang vollzog sich aber, lässt man konjunkturell bedingte Schwankungen unberücksichtigt, mit weitgehend konstanter Rate. Rückläufig waren vor allem die geleisteten Arbeitsstunden je Erwerbstätigen. Seit Beginn des laufenden Jahrzehnts sinkt zudem die Bevölkerung im arbeitsfähigen Alter. Der Produktivitätsfortschritt wird von der Quantität und der Qualität des Humankapitals, den Anstrengungen in Forschung und Entwicklung sowie den Regulierungen auf den Güter- und Arbeitsmärkten beeinflusst. Anreize für die Akkumulation von Human- und Sachkapital werden zudem von der Finanzpolitik gesetzt, insbesondere von der Steuerpolitik und durch die Bereitstellung von Infrastruktur. In all diesen Bereichen weist Deutschland Defizite auf. Stimuliert wird der Produktivitätsfortschritt durch die IuK-Technologien. Zwar ist Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich auf die Produktion von IuK-Gütern wenig spezialisiert; die hohen Produktivitätszuwächse bei deren Produktion fallen somit hier in geringerem Umfang an. Es gibt aber erste Anzeichen dafür, dass mit dem Einsatz von IuK-Technologien auch die Produktivität in anderen Wirtschaftszweigen steigt, wobei das Ausmaß allerdings auch vom Regulierungsumfeld abhängt. Angesichts der zunehmenden Verbreitung der Technologien in Deutschland ist zu erwarten, dass sich das Wachstum der Arbeitsproduktivität insgesamt auf dem derzeitigen Niveau stabilisiert. Die Reformen im Rahmen der ?Agenda 2010? dürften in den kommenden Jahren zu einem Abbau der strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit beitragen. Dem damit tendenziell verbundenen Anstieg des Arbeitsvolumens steht allerdings entgegen, dass die Bevölkerung im arbeitsfähigen Alter voraussichtlich etwas rascher sinkt. Zudem wird sich die Arbeitszeit je Beschäftigten wahrscheinlich weiter verringern, denn der voraussichtlichen Erhöhung der durchschnittlichen Wochenarbeitszeit bei Vollzeitbeschäftigten steht die Zunahme geringfügiger Beschäftigungsverhältnisse gegenüber. Alles in allem dürfte das Produktionspotential in den kommenden Jahren weiter nur mit der jetzt erreichten Rate von etwa 1 Prozent wachsen. --

Population dynamics of two antilisterial cheese surface consortia revealed by temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surface contamination of smear cheese by <it>Listeria </it>spp. is of major concern for the industry. Complex smear ecosystems have been shown to harbor antilisterial potential but the microorganisms and mechanisms involved in the inhibition mostly remain unclear, and are likely related to complex interactions than to production of single antimicrobial compounds. Bacterial biodiversity and population dynamics of complex smear ecosystems exhibiting antilisterial properties <it>in situ </it>were investigated by Temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TTGE), a culture independent technique, for two microbial consortia isolated from commercial Raclette type cheeses inoculated with defined commercial ripening cultures (F) or produced with an old-young smearing process (M).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>TTGE revealed nine bacterial species common to both F and M consortia, but consortium F exhibited a higher diversity than consortium M, with thirteen and ten species, respectively. Population dynamics were studied after application of the consortia on fresh-produced Raclette cheeses. TTGE analyses revealed a similar sequential development of the nine species common to both consortia. Beside common cheese surface bacteria (<it>Staphylococcus equorum, Corynebacterium </it>spp., <it>Brevibacterium linens, Microbacterium gubbeenense</it>, <it>Agrococcus casei</it>), the two consortia contained marine lactic acid bacteria (<it>Alkalibacterium kapii</it>, <it>Marinilactibacillus psychrotolerans</it>) that developed early in ripening (day 14 to 20), shortly after the growth of staphylococci (day 7). A decrease of <it>Listeria </it>counts was observed on cheese surface inoculated at day 7 with 0.1-1 × 10²CFU cm^-2, when cheeses were smeared with consortium F or M. <it>Listeria </it>counts went below the detection limit of the method between day 14 and 28 and no subsequent regrowth was detected over 60 to 80 ripening days. In contrast, <it>Listeria </it>grew to high counts (10⁵CFU cm^-2) on cheeses smeared with a defined surface culture.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This work reports the first population dynamics study of complex smear ecosystems exhibiting <it>in situ </it>antilisterial activity. TTGE revealed the presence of marine lactic acid bacteria that are likely related to the strong <it>Listeria </it>inhibition, as their early development in the smear occurred simultaneously with a decrease in <it>Listeria </it>cell count.</p

Progress Toward Sustainable Reversible Deactivation Radical Polymerization

The recent focus of media and governments on renewability, green chemistry, and circular economy has led to a surge in the synthesis of renewable monomers and polymers. In this review, focussing on renewable monomers for reversible deactivation radical polymerizations (RDRP), it is highlighted that for the majority of the monomers and polymers reported, the claim to renewability is not always accurate. By closely examining the sustainability of synthetic routes and the renewability of starting materials, fully renewable monomers are identified and discussed in terms of sustainability, polymerization behavior, and properties obtained after polymerization. The holistic discussion considering the overall preparation process of polymers, that is, monomer syntheses, origin of starting materials, solvents used, the type of RDRP technique utilized, and the purification method, allows to highlight certain topics which need to be addressed in order to progress toward not only (partially) renewable, but sustainable monomers and polymers using RDRPs

Recovery of actinides from actinide–aluminium alloys by chlorination: Part II

A chlorination route is being investigated for recovery of actinides from actinide–aluminium alloys, which originate from pyrochemical recovery of actinides from spent metallic nuclear fuel by electrochemical methods in molten LiCl–KCl. In the present work, the most important steps of this route were experimentally tested using U–Pu–Al alloy prepared by electrodeposition of U and Pu on solid aluminium plate electrodes. The investigated processes were vacuum distillation for removal of the salt adhered on the electrode, chlorination of the alloy by chlorine gas and sublimation of the AlCl3 formed. The processes parameters were set on the base of a previous thermochemical study and an experimental work using pure UAl3 alloy. The present experimental results indicated high efficiency of salt distillation and chlorination steps, while the sublimation step should be further optimised

Delayed maintenance modelling considering speed restriction for a railway section

The deterioration of track geometry depends on several factors of which the speed of the train is one. Imposing a speed restriction can slow down the track deterioration and allows a longer survival time before a serious condition is achieved. Preventive maintenance delays can be authorized during the survival time. However, speed restrictions also reduce the system throughput. On the other hand, a longer interval between preventive maintenance activities has a lower maintenance action cost and it also enables grouping the maintenance activities to save set-up costs as well as system down time. If the repair delay is too long, it may cause unacceptable conditions on the track and lead to higher maintenance costs and accidents. Therefore, it is interesting to assess the effect of a speed restriction on the delayed maintenance strategies for a railway track section. We want to solve a maintenance optimization problem to find the optimal tuning of the maintenance delay time and imposition of a speed restriction. To this aim, a delayed maintenance model is developed, in which track deterioration depends on the train speed and the number of passing trains. The model is used to determine an optimal speed restriction strategy and a preventive repair delay for the optimization of the system benefit and unavailability. Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) are adopted to model the maintenance and operation of the railway track section. The CPN model describes the gradual track deterioration as a stochastic process. Different speed restriction policies and maintenance delay strategies are modelled and activated by the observed component states. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to estimate the maintenance cost, the system benefit and the system downtime under different policies. Numerical results show the maintenance decision variable trade-off

Kindesvertretung: Konkret, partizipativ, transdisziplinär

Gute Kindesvertretung hat zum Ziel, die Partizipation von Kindern, die in ein juristisches Verfahren involviert sind, zu ermöglichen und mitzugestalten. Die Autor*innen des Bandes stellen diesen Prozess erstmals transdisziplinär dar - als Synthese juristischer, psychologischer, (behinderten-)pädagogischer und sozialarbeiterischer Theorie und Praxis. Sie zeichnen die Lage der Kindesvertretung in den deutschsprachigen Ländern nach und entwickeln Standards für alle Phasen der Vertretung, konkretisiert anhand von Fallbeispielen aus der Schweiz. Dabei kommen nicht nur Fachpersonen und Entscheidungsträger*innen zu Wort, sondern auch betroffene Kinder und Jugendliche