Seasonal migration and networks : evidence on Moldova's labour exodus.

Seasonal migration is an ever more important phenomenon worldwide, but has received little attention in empirical research. This paper investigates the choice of seasonal versus longer-term migration on a household level. We use data from Moldova, a country that is witnessing a massive emigration shock. Surprisingly, neither children nor marital status appear to influence the decision to leave seasonally or for longer periods. This suggests high social and emotional costs of emigration. We also find that existing local networks of seasonal migrants are unrelated to permanent migration choice. Generally, networks appear to have a stronger influence on migration probabilities in urban settings.Saisonarbeitskräfte; Auswanderung; Armut; Soziales Netzwerk; Soziale Lage; Motivation; Migranten; Schätzung; Moldawien;Migration; Seasonal Migration; Migration Network; Poverty; Moldova;

Economic governance

Das vorliegende Papier definiert und diskutiert das Konzept der Economic Governance. Die Kernfrage des Papiers ist, in welcher Form wirtschaftliche Akteure Governance-Leistungen – wie etwa Vertragssicherheit oder Eigentumsrechte – bereitstellen können. Außerdem werden Beispiele aufgeführt, wie der Marktmechanismus gezielt bei politischer Steuerung eingesetzt wird. Dabei wird die aktuelle ökonomische Literatur zu Governance und Institutionen gezielt für die deutsche Governance-Debatte zusammengefasst. Das Papier zeigt, dass private Akteure gerade in Entwicklungsländern fehlende Staatlichkeit durch eigene Governance-Formen ersetzen. Sie schaffen sich selbst die nötigen Rahmenbedingungen ihrer wirtschaftlichen Transaktionen. Auch in entwickelten Ländern gibt es eine Vielzahl solch privater Steuerungsformen wirtschaftlicher Akteure. Diese können als Economic Governance verstanden werden, allerdings nur, wenn sie intentional auf die Ordnungsbildung der Wirtschaft Einfluss nehmen. Die „spontane“ Bereitstellung von Gütern und Dienstleistungen durch Märkte kann nicht zu Governance gezählt werden

Kurzgutachten zu Staatsschuldenkrisen

Das vorliegende Gutachten umfasst drei Teile. Zunächst befasse ich mich mit dem Argument, dass ein Insolvenzverfahren zwingend zu höheren Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen führen würde. Im Anschluss daran beschreibe ich den Kontext und Ablauf der Restrukturierungen von Staatsanleihen in (i) Griechenland 2012 und (ii) Zypern 2013

The Economic Drivers of Human Trafficking: Micro-Evidence from Five Eastern European Countries..

Human trafficking is a humanitarian problem of global scale, but quantitative research on the issue barely exists. This paper is a first attempt to explore the economic drivers of human trafficking and migrant exploitation using micro data. We argue that migration pressure combined with informal migration patterns and incomplete information are the key determinants of human trafficking. To test our argument, we use a unique new dataset of 5513 households from Belarus, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. The main result is in line with our expectations: Migrant families in high-migration areas and with larger migrant networks are much more likely to have a trafficked victim among their members. Our results also indicate that illegal migration increases trafficking risks and that awareness campaigns and a reduction of information asymmetries might be an effective strategy to reduce the crime.Human Trafficking; Migrant Exploitation; Illegal Migration; Migration Networks; Eastern Europe;

Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Should we really blame the creditors?

Disorderly debt restructurings can be detrimental for debtor countries and creditors alike. This paper investigates delays in sovereign debt restructurings using a comprehensive new dataset since 1980. Why are some debt crises settled in just a few months, while others take many years? Have creditor coordination problems become more cumbersome in recent years? To answer these and other questions, the study provides ample case study evidence. Moreover, I apply semi-parametric duration models. The results indicate that holdouts, inter-creditor disputes and litigation explain some of the observed restructuring delays. However, government behaviour and political instability appear far more important in explaining lengthy restructurings. The volume of IMF credits has no systematic influence on the speed of crisis resolution

The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy

The Greek debt restructuring of 2012 stands out in the history of sovereign defaults. It achieved very large debt relief—over 50 percent of 2012 GDP—with minimal financial disruption, using a combination of new legal techniques, exceptionally large cash incentives, and official sector pressure on key creditors. But it did so at a cost. The timing and design of the restructuring left money on the table from the perspective of Greece, created a large risk for European taxpayers, and set precedents—particularly in its very generous treatment of holdout creditors—that are likely to make future debt restructurings in Europe more difficult

Use of socio-economic criteria for intergovernmental transfers: The case of India.

Intergovernmental fiscal relations

ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds

This paper analyses the determinants and effects of ECB interventions in times of severe distress. We focus on the Greek government bond market in mid-2010 and use a unique new dataset to show, for the first time, what type of bonds the ECB bought. We then explore the short-term effects of ECB purchases at the bond-level. The results show a large impact of the interventions on the targeted instruments. Bonds bought by the ECB see a much steeper drop in yields than those not bought. This is consistent with theories of “local supply effects” in segmented or illiquid bond markets

Seasonal migration and networks: Evidence on Moldova's labour exodus

Seasonal migration is an ever more important phenomenon worldwide, but has received little attention in empirical research. This paper investigates the choice of seasonal versus longer-term migration on a household level. We use data from Moldova, a country that is witnessing a massive emigration shock. Surprisingly, neither children nor marital status appear to influence the decision to leave seasonally or for longer periods. This suggests high social and emotional costs of emigration. We also find that existing local networks of seasonal migrants are unrelated to permanent migration choice. Generally, networks appear to have a stronger influence on migration probabilities in urban settings