Overconfidence and active management: An empirical study across Swiss pension plans

Pension plans in Switzerland favor active management over indexing to implement their strategic asset allocation. Empirical surveys show, however, that their success has been below expectations, as the median performance of Swiss pension plans in domestic and international equities is below market indices even gross of fees. The results of this paper's survey across decisionmakers of Swiss pension plans sheds some light on why active management is still so popular across Swiss pension plans. On average the participants in the sample are prone to the better-than-average-effect. A majority expects their managers and their overall pension plan to outperform the other survey participants in the future. The subjective perceptions of the own skill level relative to the competitors can explain the popularity of active management across Swiss pension plans

Are pension fund managers overconfident?

Empirical studies show that people tend to be overconfident about the precision of their knowledge, leading to miscalibration. Consistent with this, we found that on overage the decision makers of Swiss pension plans provide too narrow confidence intervals when asked to estimate the past return of various assets. Their confidence intervals are also systematically too narrow in their forecast of future returns, in comparison with the historical volatility. They are less miscalibrated, however, than our laymen sample. Individual differences between the participants’ degree of overconfidence are large and stable across those two different tasks. In a linear regression model we present evi-dence that miscalibration is linked to individual characteristics. In our sample younger people with an education from university and with more experience in finance or pension plans are less over-confident than older people without such an education and with less experience

Nonsurgical strategies in patients with NET liver metastases: A protocol of four systematic reviews

Background: Patients diagnosed with neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) with hepatic metastases generally have a worse prognosis as compared with patients with nonmetastasized NETs. Due to tumor location and distant metastases, a surgical approach is often not possible and nonsurgical therapeutic strategies may apply. Objective: The aim of these systematic reviews is to evaluate the role of nonsurgical therapy options for patients with nonresectable liver metastases of NETs. Methods: An objective group of librarians will provide an electronic search strategy to examine the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials [CENTRAL]) databases. There will be no restriction concerning language and publication date. The qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the systematic review will be conducted with randomized controlled trials (RCT), prospective, and retrospective comparative cohort, and case-control studies. Case series will be collected in a separate database and only used for descriptive purposes. Results: This study is ongoing and presents a protocol of four systematic reviews to assess the role of nonsurgical treatment options in patients with neuroendocrine liver metastases. Conclusions: These systematic reviews, performed according to this protocol, will assess the value of noninvasive therapy options for patients with nonresectable liver metastases of NETs in combination with invasive techniques, such as percutaneous liver-directed techniques and local ablation techniques. Trial Registration: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42012002657; http://www.metaxis.com/PROSPERO/full_doc.asp?RecordID=2657 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6NDlYi37O); CRD42012002658; http://www.metaxis.com/PROSPERO/full_doc.asp?RecordID=2658 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6NDlfWSuD); CRD42012002659; www.metaxis.com/PROSPERO/full_doc.asp?RecordID=2659 (Arichived by Webcite at http://www.webcitation.org/6NDlmWAFM); and CRD42012002660; http://www.metaxis.com/PROSPERO/full_doc.asp?RecordID=2660 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6NDmnylzp)

X-ray spectroscopy of current-induced spin-orbit torques and spin accumulation in Pt/3d-transition-metal bilayers

ISSN:1098-0121ISSN:0163-1829ISSN:1550-235XISSN:0556-2805ISSN:2469-9969ISSN:1095-379

X-ray detection of ultrashort spin current pulses in synthetic antiferromagnets

ISSN:0021-8979ISSN:1089-755