Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions

Biotic homogenization or riparian refugia? Urban and wild land snail assemblages along a subtropical precipitation gradient

A noted impact of urbanization is the tendency for biotic homogenization, or the increase of similarity of geographically disparate communities. On the other hand, some urban habitats harbor biodiversity native to their region, a role potentially important in xeric landscapes, with irrigation increasing the coverage and availability of mesic habitats in an otherwise water-limited landscape. We assessed the relative importance of urban yards as agents of biotic homogenization or riparian refugia by characterizing community composition of Tamaulipan thornforest land snail assemblages across a pronounced precipitation gradient in far south Texas, USA. We quantified α- and β-diversity and assessed whether the land snail fauna of urban yards are more similar to each other across a precipitation gradient than they are to their wild counterparts, as well as determined the significance of moisture in driving Tamaulipan thornforest β-diversity, both in terms of turnover (changing species composition) and nestedness (species loss). Sites with both the wild and wet conditions had the highest values of species richness and abundance. Urban land snail communities were significantly homogenized, outweighing the influence of the precipitation gradient. We did not find urban yards served as a refuge for native, moisture-dependent, riparian snails. Our analyses find that turnover, not nestedness, is the largest contributor to β-diversity in these assemblages. Studies of urbanization should address regional spatial scales to quantify how urbanization modifies regional biodiversity arising from background environmental gradients. Such an approach could lead to improved understanding of how large metroplex areas could be used to maintain and even promote biodiversity

Linking plant hydraulics and beta diversity in tropical forests

This article is a Commentary on Cosme et al., 215: 113–125

Local adaptation to continuous mowing makes the noxious weed Solanum elaeagnifolium a superweed candidate by improving fitness and defense traits

The role of disturbance in accelerating weed growth is well understood. While most studies have focused on soil mediated disturbance, mowing can also impact weed traits. Using silverleaf nightshade (Solanum elaeagnifolium), a noxious and invasive weed, through a series of field, laboratory, and greenhouse experiments, we asked whether continuous mowing influences growth and plant defense traits, expressed via different avenues, and whether they cascade into offspring. We found that mowed plants produced significantly less number of fruits, and less number of total seeds per plant, but had higher seed mass, and germinated more and faster. When three herbivores were allowed to feed, tobacco hornworm (Manduca sexta) caterpillars, gained more mass on seedlings from unmowed plants, while cow pea aphid (Aphis craccivora), a generalist, established better on mowed seedlings; however, leaf trichome density was higher on unmowed seedlings, suggesting possible negative cross talk in defense traits. Texas potato beetle (Leptinotarsa texana), a co-evolved specialist on S. elaeagnifolium, did not show any differential feeding effects. We also found that specific root length, an indicator of nutrient acquisition, was significantly higher in first generation seedlings from mowed plants. Taken together, we show that mowing is a selective pressure that enhances some fitness and defense traits and can contribute to producing superweeds

Bayesian inference of hydraulic properties in and around a white fir using a process-based ecohydrologic model

We present a parameter estimation study of the Soil-Tree-Atmosphere Continuum (STAC) model, a process-based model that simulates water flow through an individual tree and its surrounding root zone. Parameters are estimated to optimize the model fit to observations of sap flux, stem water potential, and soil water storage made for a white fir (Abies concolor) in the Sierra Nevada, California. Bayesian inference is applied with a likelihood function that considers temporal correlation of the model errors. Key vegetation properties are estimated, such as the tree\u27s root distribution, tolerance to drought, and hydraulic conductivity and retention functions. We find the model parameters are relatively non-identifiable when considering just soil water storage. Overall, by utilizing multiple processes (e.g. sap flow, stem water potential, and soil water storage) during the parameter estimation, we find the simulations of the soil and tree water properties to be more accurate when compared to observed data

Effects of Scarification, Phytohormones, Soil Type, and Warming on the Germination and/or Seedling Performance of Three Tamaulipan Thornscrub Forest Species

The Tamaulipan thornforests of south Texas and northeast Mexico are an ecologically and economically important conservation hotspot. Thornforest restoration is limited by native tree and shrub seedling availability for planting. Seedling shortages arise from low seed availability and knowledge gaps regarding best practices for germinating and growing the 70+ thornforest species desired for restoration plantings. To fill key knowledge gaps, we investigated three ecologically important thornforest species with low or highly variable germination or seedling survival rates: Ebenopsis ebano, Cordia boissieri, and Zanthoxylum fagara. For each, we quantified the effects of different dosages of chemical seed treatments used to promote germination (sulfuric acid, SA; gibberellic acid, GA; indole-3-butyric acid, IBA) on germination likelihood and timing. We also quantified the effects that these chemical seed treatments, soil media mixture type, and soil warming had on seedling survival, growth, and root morphology. Ebenopsis germination peaked (\u3e90%) with 40–60 min SA treatment. Cordia germination peaked (40%) with 100 mg/L GA treatment. Zanthoxylum germination was negligible across all treatments. Seed molding was rare but stirring during SA treatment reduced Ebenopsis molding by 4%. Ebenopsis seedling survival, height, leaf count, and root morphology were minimally affected by seed treatments, generally reduced by warming, and influenced by soil mix, which also mediated responses to warming. These results suggest improvements to existing practices that could increase Ebenopsis germination by 10–20% and potentially double Cordia germination

Do early-successional weeds facilitate or compete with seedlings in forest restoration? Disentangling abiotic versus biotic factors

Semi-arid forests need cost-effective restoration strategies to address their severe degradation. Tree shelters are often used to minimize abiotic and biotic stress during seedling establishment. We asked if early-successional weeds act as a natural shelter by facilitating native seedlings, contingent on abiotic and biotic stressors and seedling ecological strategy. We conducted a manipulative weed exclusion experiment at a semi-arid site in South Texas targeted for large-scale forest restoration to discern the net effect of weeds on the growth and survival of target thornscrub tree and shrub seedlings. We assessed the roles of contrasting seedling ecological strategies (fast vs. slow growth habit), temporal variation in abiotic stress, microclimate and mammalian herbivory in modulating weed–seedling interactions. Ungulate herbivory on seedlings was common, of similar frequency across most species, but not diminished by the presence of weed neighbours. On average, seedlings growing adjacent to weed neighbours experienced modest but non-significant increases in both height and mortality after 6 months, relative to weed-excluded areas. However, seedlings without significant herbivory and adjacent to weed neighbours grew more vigorously (increased height and branching) during hot and dry periods, particularly those species with a fast growth habit. Although seedling light-saturated photosynthetic capacity (Asat) and air temperature were unaffected by weed presence during hot and dry periods, afternoon light levels were reduced by approximately 50%, possibly indicative of lower leaf temperatures and improved seedling water status. Our results show that realizing the facilitative potential of weeds in semi-arid forest restoration requires minimizing mammalian herbivory and temporally separating competition for resources. Managing for intermediate but not excessive levels of forb canopy cover is likely required to reduce high radiation loads and reduce transpiration without adverse competitive effects. Longer-term experiments manipulating cover crop identity, cover and mammalian herbivory will inform whether forbs can be effectively exploited to enhance restoration success at large scales

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions