The Economic Impact of Olympic Games: Evidence from Stock Markets

By means of an event study of stock market reactions to the announcement of the Olympic Games host cities, we find a significant and positive announcement effect of hosting the Summer Games, with a cumulative abnormal return of about 2% within a few days. We do not find any significant results for the Winter Games. Neither do we detect a significant impact when bidders lose the competition. Our results differ from those of a similar study by Mirman and Sharma (2008), who find that the Winter Games are subject to a significantly negative announcement impact, while the Summer Games are not. Our results, however, rely on a larger sample of 15 Olympic events and are obtained by assessing the abnormal returns after the announcement against a ?business?as?usual" situation (instead of testing the difference between winner group and loser group). Our findings are in line with economic intuition, since the Summer Games represent a larger event and are thus more likely to have a significant impact. We also find that among the winners, small economies tend to have greater cumulative abnormal returns than their large peers. --Olympic Games,economic impact,event study,stock markets

Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relation is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, this relation is stronger during obvious fundamental misalignment. This occurs when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values, when interest rate differentials are high and when exchange rates are less influenced by strong momentum. --Exchange Rate Determination,Individual Expectations,Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends. In line with non-linear exchange rate-modeling, professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate much from PPP. Chartists survive in FX markets as they forecast equally accurately as fundamentalists. Unexpected from an effcient market viewpoint, chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons. Overall, these findings clearly support the chartist-fundamentalist approach

The Economic Impact of Olympic Games : Evidence from Stock Markets

By means of an event study of stock market reactions to the announcement of the Olympic Games host cities, we find a significant and positive announcement effect of hosting the Summer Games, with a cumulative abnormal return of about 2% within a few days. We do not find any significant results for the Winter Games. Neither do we detect a significant impact when bidders lose the competition. Our results differ from those of a similar study by Mirman and Sharma (2008), who find that the Winter Games are subject to a significantly negative announcement impact, while the Summer Games are not. Our results, however, rely on a larger sample of 15 Olympic events and are obtained by assessing the abnormal returns after the announcement against a “business–as–usual" situation (instead of testing the difference between winner group and loser group). Our findings are in line with economic intuition, since the Summer Games represent a larger event and are thus more likely to have a significant impact. We also find that among the winners, small economies tend to have greater cumulative abnormal returns than their large peers

Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, e.g., when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values. Finally, forecasters largely agree that an interest rate increase relates to a currency appreciation, but only good forecasters get expected interest rates right

Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relation is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, this relation is stronger during obvious fundamental misalignment. This occurs when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values, when interest rate differentials are high and when exchange rates are less influenced by strong momentum

Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth and inflation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year

Studie zu Dispozinsen / Ratenkrediten - Forschungsvorhaben zur Bereitstellung wissenschaftlicher Entscheidungshilfe für das Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz (BMELV)

Studie zu Dispozinsen / Ratenkrediten Aktenzeichen: 514-06.01-2810HS034 Laufzeit 8/2011 – 5/2012 - Zusammenfassung – In Deutschland verfügen etwa 80 Prozent der Haushalte über einen Dispositionskredit. Bei beträchtlicher Variation liegt der eingeräumte Kreditrahmen bei knapp dem 3-fachen des Nettoeinkommens. Arbeitslose, Alleinerziehende, Paare mit Kindern und Selbständige nutzen den Dispositionskredit häufiger. Einer Stichprobe unter Banken zufolge wurde bei 29 Prozent der Konten mit Dispositionsrahmen der Kredit zum Befragungstag in Anspruch genommen. Insgesamt werden die Zinssätze für Überziehungskredite von Experten der Verbraucherorganisationen als zu hoch angesehen. Die im Vergleich zu Ratenkrediten höheren Zinsen für Dispositionskredite erscheinen nicht durch höhere Ausfallquoten gerechtfertigt. Das Fortbestehen hoher Zinsen wird dadurch begünstigt, dass Konsumenten ihre Kontenwahl nur in geringem Maße von den Preisen der Dispokredite abhängig machen. Raten- und Abrufkredite sind nach Meinung von Experten der Verbraucherorganisationen und Schuldnerberatung selten als Alternative für einen kurzfristigen Liquiditätsausgleich geeignet. Anders sei dies bei dauerhafter Nutzung des Dispositionskredits als Ersatz für einen Ratenkredit zu beurteilen. Teilweise werden dadurch die Schutzvorschriften des Verzugs ausgehebelt. Die Studie diskutiert die Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener rechtlicher Regelungen, die darauf abzielen, die Höhe der Dispozinsen zu begrenzen und Fehlnutzungen zu vermeiden: hierzu gehören eine klare Wucher- bzw. Preisobergrenze und eine hervorgehobene Preisangabe in der Werbung, Hinweisschreiben bei exzessiver Nutzung, die Begrenzung preistreibender Faktoren und eine jährlichen Berichtspflicht. Erfahrungen im Ausland und in anderen Rechtsgebieten zeigen, dass solche Mittel wirkungsvoll sein können. Je nach Stärke des Eingriffs besteht für die Politik hierbei ein Zielkonflikt zwischen der Versorgung mit Dispositionskrediten und günstigen Konditionen. Es ist möglich, dass klare Wucher- bzw. Preisobergrenzen zu einer Kostenverlagerung führen; dies kann anhand dieser Studie jedoch nicht abschließend beurteilt werden. Ein Ende der Quersubventionierung der Kontoführung durch Dispozinsen kann aus Verteilungs- und Preisgerechtigkeitsgründen politisch gewollt sein. Es würde die betroffenen Haushalte entlasten und zu mehr Preisgerechtigkeit führen. Aktuelle Beispiele aus der Praxis zeigen, dass günstigere Konditionen auf dem Niveau von Konsumentenkrediten und ein fairer Umgang mit dem Verbraucher bei Überziehungskrediten grundsätzlich möglich sind.Study on Overdraft and Instalment Credit Reference No: 514-06.01-2810HS034 Duration 8/2011 – 5/2012 - Executive Summary - In Germany, about 80 per cent of private households dispose of a bank account with an overdraft facility. On average, the authorised credit limit on a facility amounts to a multiple of three times an individual’s net monthly income, a figure that is subject to large variation. Unemployed persons, lone parents, couples with children and the self-employed use the credit offered by the overdraft facility more frequently than the average household. From the research sample of banks covered by the study, approximately 29 per cent of all personal bank accounts with an authorised credit line were overdrawn at the time of the survey. Experts from consumer organisations consider interest rates charged for overdraft credit as too expensive. In comparison with instalment credit, the high interest rates do not appear to be justified by a high default rate. According to the same experts instalment credit and callable loans are only a better alternative to the use of the overdraft facility in cases when the funds from the overdraft are used exhaustively. The study discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different legal rules, among such possible regulations are clear usury ceilings, prominent price disclosure in advertisements, the obligation to inform the consumer in instances of excessive use of overdraft credit, rules to constrain other price determinant factors, and the duty of a governmental report on overdraft credit on an annual basis. Experiences from abroad and from other jurisdictions show the effectiveness such measures can have. Depending on the level of constraint exercised, policy may face a trade-off between the extent of consumer access to overdraft credit and reasonable prices. It is possible that usury ceilings or other limitations lead to cost transfers; however, a final assessment of such effects is beyond the scope of this study. Measures aimed at reducing the cross-subsidisation of the costs of current accounts by high interest on overdrafts may be desirable from a policy point of view to establish fair pricing and to grant relief to vulnerable households. Examples of better practice from credit markets show that more favourable pricing conditions for overdrafts (i.e. at a more similar level of interest rate to those observed for a consumer loan) and a fairer treatment of consumers are possible

The prismatic Sigma 3 (10-10) twin bounday in alpha-Al2O3 investigated by density functional theory and transmission electron microscopy

The microscopic structure of a prismatic $\Sigma 3$ $(10\bar{1}0)$ twin boundary in \aal2o3 is characterized theoretically by ab-initio local-density-functional theory, and experimentally by spatial-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy in a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM), measuring energy-loss near-edge structures (ELNES) of the oxygen $K$-ionization edge. Theoretically, two distinct microscopic variants for this twin interface with low interface energies are derived and analysed. Experimentally, it is demonstrated that the spatial and energetical resolutions of present high-performance STEM instruments are insufficient to discriminate the subtle differences of the two proposed interface variants. It is predicted that for the currently developed next generation of analytical electron microscopes the prismatic twin interface will provide a promising benchmark case to demonstrate the achievement of ELNES with spatial resolution of individual atom columns