Why Does Sweden Have Higher Levels of Voter Turnout Than Finland?

Voter turnout is considered the “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to assessing the health of civic participation in a democracy; low turnout in particular is indicative of broader problems. Although voter turnout is quite high in both Sweden and Finland, turnout is notably higher in Sweden despite a long list of similarities between the two countries. Why is there this puzzling discrepancy? This paper employs a “most similar systems” research design to consider a wide variety of factors that can affect voter turnout and ultimately concludes that the difference lies in several different features of the two countries’ electoral systems. These features include the method used to translate votes into seats, constituency size, the number of political parties, type of ballot used, and presence or absence of compulsory voting laws

The 2016 Fortenbaugh Lecture: Individual Responses to Lincoln’s Assassination

Every year on November 19th, the anniversary of the Gettysburg Address, a distinguished scholar of the Civil War Era is invited to speak as part of the Robert Fortenbaugh Memorial Lecture and present an aspect of the Civil War in a format that the general public can understand. This year, the 55th annual Fortenbaugh Memorial Lecture was delivered by Dr. Martha Hodes of New York University. Dr. Hodes’ lecture was based on her book Mourning Lincoln and argued, based on personal primary sources from the immediate aftermath of Abraham Lincoln’s assassination, that Americans’ responses were by no means consistent. Not everyone mourned, nor was everyone totally focused on the assassination, partly because there were differing visions for the nation’s future. [excerpt

Hadamard States and Two-dimensional Gravity

We have used a two-dimensional analog of the Hadamard state-condition to study the local constraints on the two-point function of a linear quantum field conformally coupled to a two-dimensional gravitational background. We develop a dynamical model in which the determination of the state of the quantum field is essentially related to the determination of a conformal frame. A particular conformal frame is then introduced in which a two-dimensional gravitational equation is established.Comment: 7 pages, no figur

“This Is War”: The Construction of the Laird Rams

By the spring of 1863, American ambassador to England Charles Francis Adams had a much bigger problem than the activities of British-built Confederate raiders on his hands: the construction of two 230-foot long ironclad rams in the Laird shipyard at Birkenhead that evidence suggested were destined for the Confederacy. At 230 feet long and 40 feet wide, with 6-7 foot iron spears at the front, rotating turret batteries, full iron plating, and a top speed of 10 knots, these ships were the Americans’ worst nightmare. Lincoln’s cabinet even considered blatantly ignoring Britain’s “neutrality” and sending a U.S. Navy squadron to destroy the rams, which had been under construction since the previous summer

First In the Nation’s History: Gettysburg From Battlefield Memorial Association to National Park

Just over a month after the Battle of Gettysburg turned the town on its head, local attorney David McConaughy sent a letter to several prominent citizens suggesting that “there could be no more fitting and expressive memorial of the heroic valor and signal triumphs of our army…than the battle-field itself.” He had already purchased some of the ground, and in order to keep the effort going, he suggested trying to get Pennsylvania citizens to contribute money to purchase and preserve more. In order to manage this fund and the battlefield, McConaughy proposed the formation of a preservation association and made a plan to seek its formal incorporation by the State Legislature. The idea went over well with the local citizens, and on September 5, 1863, they and McConaughy met to consider the matter of battlefield preservation. What they established was Gettysburg’s first preservation organization and the nation’s earliest attempt to preserve a Civil War battlefield. [excerpt

Something Must Be Done: The Construction and Dedication of the Soldiers’ National Cemetery at Gettysburg

Not only did the armies leave something of a state of chaos behind them after the battle of Gettysburg; they also left their dead buried poorly almost everywhere. Within days, the combination of rain and pigs rooting around the battlefield had exposed multiple skeletons and partially-decomposed bodies. The smell was horrendous, and residents and visitors alike were shocked by the state of the burials. [excerpt

The Corwin Amendment: The Last Last-Minute Attempt to Save the Union

At around 5:20AM on March 4, 1861—Inauguration Day—the Senate voted 24-12 to pass a proposed amendment to the Constitution that would permanently preserve slavery in the states where it currently existed. If successfully ratified, it would become the 13th Amendment to the United States Constitution—and hopefully avert the secession crisis and the impending Civil War. However, only six states had ratified the amendment by early 1862, and the amendment died soon after. The last attempt to stop the Civil War, an attempt which had been in the works since shortly after the presidential election, had failed

On the choice of parameters in solar structure inversion

The observed solar p-mode frequencies provide a powerful diagnostic of the internal structure of the Sun and permit us to test in considerable detail the physics used in the theory of stellar structure. Amongst the most commonly used techniques for inverting such helioseismic data are two implementations of the optimally localized averages (OLA) method, namely the Subtractive Optimally Localized Averages (SOLA) and Multiplicative Optimally Localized Averages (MOLA). Both are controlled by a number of parameters, the proper choice of which is very important for a reliable inference of the solar internal structure. Here we make a detailed analysis of the influence of each parameter on the solution and indicate how to arrive at an optimal set of parameters for a given data set.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication on MNRA

Optimal Sup-norm Rates and Uniform Inference on Nonlinear Functionals of Nonparametric IV Regression

This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a structural function $h_0$ and its functionals. First, we derive sup-norm convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series 2SLS) estimators of $h_0$ and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that describes the best possible (minimax) sup-norm rates of estimating $h_0$ and its derivatives, and show that the sieve NPIV estimator can attain the minimax rates when $h_0$ is approximated via a spline or wavelet sieve. Our optimal sup-norm rates surprisingly coincide with the optimal root-mean-squared rates for severely ill-posed problems, and are only a logarithmic factor slower than the optimal root-mean-squared rates for mildly ill-posed problems. Third, we use our sup-norm rates to establish the uniform Gaussian process strong approximations and the score bootstrap uniform confidence bands (UCBs) for collections of nonlinear functionals of $h_0$ under primitive conditions, allowing for mildly and severely ill-posed problems. Fourth, as applications, we obtain the first asymptotic pointwise and uniform inference results for plug-in sieve t-statistics of exact consumer surplus (CS) and deadweight loss (DL) welfare functionals under low-level conditions when demand is estimated via sieve NPIV. Empiricists could read our real data application of UCBs for exact CS and DL functionals of gasoline demand that reveals interesting patterns and is applicable to other markets.Comment: This paper is a major extension of Sections 2 and 3 of our Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper CFDP1923, Cemmap Working Paper CWP56/13 and arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.0412 [math.ST]. Section 3 of the previous version of this paper (dealing with data-driven choice of sieve dimension) is currently being revised as a separate pape