The mathematical modelling of the Ross River Virus transmission

Ross River virus is one of the most severe communicable diseases in Australia. During the 1995/96 outbreak of Ross River virus in south-western Australia, over 1 ,300 human cases were reported. Since the symptoms of the disease are sometimes too weak to be diagnosed, it is important to determine the number of humans who actually contracted the virus during outbreaks. To do this, several mathematical models with different hypotheses are constructed and analysed mathematically. The threshold mathematical conditions of these models suggest that as well as the size of the vector mosquito population, the population size and length of viraemia periods; of host populations and the infection rates between the hosts and vectors play the main roles in the transmission. Several parameters in the transmission are currently unknown, so only simple models of RRV transmission are computer-simulated. Some of the unknown parameters are extrapolated from published studies of other arboviruses. The sensitivities of the models to some of the unknown parameters are also examined. Simulation results indicate the sero-conversion rates and ratios of clinical to subclinical human infections during the outbreaks which occurred in the Peel and Leschenault districts in Southwestern Australia

Effect of Ag nanoparticle concentration on the electrical and ferroelectric properties of Ag/P(VDF-TrFE) composite films

We investigated the effect of the Ag nanoparticles on the ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties of Ag/poly(vinylidenefluoride-trifluoroethylene) (P(VDF-TrFE)) composite films. We found that the remanent polarization and direct piezoelectric coefficient increased up to 12.14 μC/cm^2 and 20.23 pC/N when the Ag concentration increased up to 0.005 volume percent (v%) and decreased down to 9.38 μC/cm^2 and 13.45 pC/N when it increased up to 0.01 v%. Further increase in Ag concentration resulted in precipitation of Ag phase and significant leakage current that hindered any meaningful measurement of the ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties. 46% increase of the remanent polarization value and 27% increase of the direct piezoelectric coefficient were observed in the film with the 0.005 v% of the Ag nanoparticles added without significant changes to the crystalline structure confirmed by both X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) experiments. These enhancements of both the ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties are attributed to the increase in the effective electric field induced by the reduction in the effective volume of P(VDF-TrFE) that results in more aligned dipoles

A Literature Review of Implementing Response to Intervention for English Language Learners

Response to intervention (RTI) has actively been used for identifying reading difficulties and providing supplemental instructions for students with disabilities. Recent developments of RTI show that the method expands its applicability to other areas and populations. In particular, it is difficult to distinguish learning disability (LD) from English as a second language acquisition. RTI could successfully be implemented for English language learners (ELLs). A systematic literature review has been conducted to delineate various components, strategies, and implications of RTI for ELL students. Twenty six articles that meet the criteria are analyzed for themes and important findings. The result of the literature review along with the implications of the identified studies is reported. It is identified that direct instruction used in tier 2 is an effective technique when infusing linguistic and cultural aspects of ELL with diverse needs

Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model

Objectives To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity

Comparison of two dose and three dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules: cost effectiveness analysis based on transmission model.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incremental cost effectiveness of two dose human papillomavirus vaccination and of additionally giving a third dose. DESIGN: Cost effectiveness study based on a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus vaccination. Two dose schedules for bivalent or quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines were assumed to provide 10, 20, or 30 years' vaccine type protection and cross protection or lifelong vaccine type protection without cross protection. Three dose schedules were assumed to give lifelong vaccine type and cross protection. SETTING: United Kingdom. POPULATION: Males and females aged 12-74 years. INTERVENTIONS: No, two, or three doses of human papillomavirus vaccine given routinely to 12 year old girls, with an initial catch-up campaign to 18 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Costs (from the healthcare provider's perspective), health related utilities, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Giving at least two doses of vaccine seems to be highly cost effective across the entire range of scenarios considered at the quadrivalent vaccine list price of £86.50 (€109.23; $136.00) per dose. If two doses give only 10 years' protection but adding a third dose extends this to lifetime protection, then the third dose also seems to be cost effective at £86.50 per dose (median incremental cost effectiveness ratio £17,000, interquartile range £11,700-£25,800). If two doses protect for more than 20 years, then the third dose will have to be priced substantially lower (median threshold price £31, interquartile range £28-£35) to be cost effective. Results are similar for a bivalent vaccine priced at £80.50 per dose and when the same scenarios are explored by parameterising a Canadian model (HPV-ADVISE) with economic data from the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS: Two dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules are likely to be the most cost effective option provided protection lasts for at least 20 years. As the precise duration of two dose schedules may not be known for decades, cohorts given two doses should be closely monitored

Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: a mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES: In January 2020, the UK moved to a 1+1 schedule for the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) with a single priming dose at 3-month and a 12-month booster. We modelled the impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) out to 2030/2031 of reductions in PCV13 coverage and population mixing associated with restrictions on non-essential healthcare visits and social distancing measures introduced in 2020/2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. DESIGN: Using an existing model of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales, we simulated the impact of a 40% reduction in coverage and a 40% reduction in mixing between and within age groups during two lockdowns in spring 2020 and autumn/winter 2020/2021. More and less extreme reductions in coverage and mixing were explored in a sensitivity analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predicted annual numbers of IPD cases under different coverage and mixing reduction scenarios with uncertainty intervals (UIs) generated from minimum and maximum values of the model predictions using 500 parameter sets. RESULTS: The model predicted that any increase in IPD cases resulting from a reduction in PCV13 coverage would be more than offset by a reduction in pneumococcal transmission due to social distancing measures and that overall reductions in IPD cases will persist for a few years after resumption of normal mixing. The net reduction in cumulative IPD cases over the five epidemiological years from July 2019 was predicted to be 13 494 (UI 12 211, 14 676) all ages. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 lockdowns are predicted to have had a profound effect on pneumococcal transmission resulting in a reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence and IPD incidence for up to 5 years after the end of the lockdown period. Carriage studies will be informative in confirming the predicted impact of the lockdown measures after they have been lifted

Active Visual Search in the Wild

In this paper, we focus on the problem of efficiently locating a target object described with free-form language using a mobile robot equipped with vision sensors (e.g., an RGBD camera). Conventional active visual search predefines a set of objects to search for, rendering these techniques restrictive in practice. To provide added flexibility in active visual searching, we propose a system where a user can enter target commands using free-form language; we call this system Active Visual Search in the Wild (AVSW). AVSW detects and plans to search for a target object inputted by a user through a semantic grid map represented by static landmarks (e.g., desk or bed). For efficient planning of object search patterns, AVSW considers commonsense knowledge-based co-occurrence and predictive uncertainty while deciding which landmarks to visit first. We validate the proposed method with respect to SR (success rate) and SPL (success weighted by path length) in both simulated and real-world environments. The proposed method outperforms previous methods in terms of SPL in simulated scenarios with an average gap of 0.283. We further demonstrate AVSW with a Pioneer-3AT robot in real-world studies