THE TRADE IMBALANCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION

The pattern of trade between the United States and China has dramatically changed during the past 15 years. Until 1992, the commodity trade volume between the two countries was around $10 billion per year, but it grew to$60 billion in 1999. Because China has kept its currency (yuan or renminbi) pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1994, its current large trade surplus with the United States has led some critics to claim that the yuan is undervalued. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of the U.S.-China bilateral exchange rate on the pattern of trade between the two countries after controlling for alternative factors influencing U.S.-Chinese bilateral trade flows. The results suggested that the U.S-China bilateral exchange rate does not have an important role in explaining bilateral trade between the two countries, while the relative exchange rate between the United States and the South-East Asian countries are more important in explaining the trade imbalance between the United States and China.International Relations/Trade,

RELATIVE AGRICULTURAL PRICE CHANGES IN DIFFERENT TIME HORIZONS

Using a monthly data covering from 1974:1 to 2002:12, this paper explores the linkage between changes in macroeconomic variables (real exchange rate and inflation rate) and changes in relative agricultural prices in different time horizons (1, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months). Controlling for factors likely to determine the long run trend of relative agricultural prices, the results show that long-term changes in real exchange rate has had a significant negative correlation with the long-term changes in relative agricultural prices. Conversely, changes of the general price have a role in explaining short-term changes in relative agricultural price at best.Demand and Price Analysis,

Macro Effects on Agricultural Prices in Different Time Horizons

Using monthly data covering 1974:1 to 2002:12, this paper explores the linkage between changes in macroeconomic variables (real exchange rate and inflation rate) and changes in relative agricultural prices in different time horizons (1, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months). By controlling factors that determine the long-run trend of relative agricultural prices, the results show that long-term changes in real exchange rates have had a significant negative correlation with the long-term changes in relative agricultural prices. Conversely, changes in the general price significantly affect short-term changes in the relative agricultural price.Relative agricultural price, exchange rates, inflation rates, unit root test, canonical cointegration regression, money neutrality, Demand and Price Analysis,

DOES EXCHANGE RATE MATTER TO AGRICULTURAL BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANAD?

This study examines the effects of the U.S.-Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of agricultural goods between the two countries and on U.S. farm income. Special attention is given to agricultural trade between the two countries under the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). This study utilizes two time series models: the vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector moving average model (VMA) with quarterly time series data from 1983 to 2000. This study found that exchange rates have a significant impact on U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and that the exchange rate between the two currencies is weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector, indicating that it is not influenced by U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and U.S. farm income.cointegration, VECM, VMA, exchange rate impacts, weak exogeneity, over-identification, short- and long-run impulse response, International Relations/Trade,

DETERMINING BILATERAL TRADE PATTERNS USING A DYNAMIC GRAVITY EQUATION

Using a dynamic gravity equation, we show that the national product differentiation model explains food and agricultural trade more properly, while the product differentiation model is more appropriate to explain large-scale manufacturing trade. In this context, our result is not consistent with the one found by Head and Ries (2001) in the short-run. The intuitive explanation for this result is that inward foreign direct investment can occur through either merger or acquisition in the short-run. Second, the pattern of bilateral trade could quickly adjust to changes in relative income between countries. Furthermore, we illustrate the positive impacts of world income growth on bilateral trade, which is in sharp contrast with the conventional analysis. This reveals yet another way to test the pattern of bilateral trade.dynamic gravity equation, national product differentiation, product differentiation, world income growth, International Relations/Trade,

THIRD COUNTRY EFFECTS ON U.S. WHEAT EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

This study examines third country effects on U.S. wheat export performance in Asian countries. An import demand model is developed to analyze the impacts of price competitiveness, exchange rates, and exchange rate volatilities on U.S. wheat market shares. The United States competes with Australia and Canada in the Asian wheat market. Empirical results show that two factors, Australian wheat price and U.S. dollar values against the Asian countries' currencies, have significant effects on U.S. market shares in this region. Furthermore, exchange rate risks between the exporting and importing countries are found to be important.international grain trade, market share, exchange rate, panel analysis., International Relations/Trade,

THE CAUSES OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA:TIME-SERIES APPROACH WITH A GRAVITY MODEL

This study proposes alternative reasons to explain an asymmetric intra-industry trade for agricultural products between Canada and the United States after the free trade agreement became effective. Using time-series data, a gravity model is developed which enables us to examine the significance of exchange rates and different trade patterns on bilateral trade.International Relations/Trade,

THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WHEAT TRADE WORLDWIDE

A modified gravity-type model was employed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate volatility on wheat exports worldwide. Special attention was given to the econometric properties of the gravity model within panel framework. Short and long-term measures of exchange rate volatility were constructed and compared. Both measures of exchange rate volatility have exhibited a negative effect on world wheat trade and the long-term effect was even larger. This result implies that exchange rate volatility is an important factor in explaining the trade pattern of wheat trade worldwide. Keywords: wheat, export, exchange rate, volatility, gravity model, and panel data.wheat, export, exchange rate, volatility, gravity model, and panel data., International Relations/Trade,

NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT: IS IT PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO AGRICULTURAL TRADE?

This paper examines whether exchange rate misalignment negatively affects agricultural trade, compared to other industry sectors. Nominal exchange rate misalignment is obtained from the percentage deviation of real exchange rates from their long-run equilibrium based on the theory of purchasing power parity. In order to explore this issue, a bilateral trade matrix involving trade flows between 10 developed countries is constructed. Using panel data analysis, a gravity model is estimated for 4 industry sectors over the period 1974-1999. The study finds that over-valuation (under-valuation) of the nominal exchange rate negatively (positively) affects export performance of the agricultural sector in particular. In the large-scale manufacturing sectors considered in this paper, exports are not significantly affected by exchange rate misalignment.exchange rate misalignment, agricultural trade, gravity model, International Relations/Trade,

EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE

Using a sample consisting of bilateral trade flows across 10 developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this paper explores the effect of exchange rate misalignment on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Controlling for other factors likely to determine the growth in bilateral agricultural trade, the results show that long-run real exchange rate variability has had a significant negative effect on the growth of agricultural trade over this period. Keywords: Exchange rates, misalignment, agricultural tradeExchange rates, misalignment, agricultural trade, International Relations/Trade,