Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment

Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability.Seasonal bias; vulnerability to poverty; natural experiment; Nigeria

Child labour and poverty linkages: A micro analysis from rural Malawian data

This study assesses the impact of income and asset poverty on child work using the rural sub-sample of the 2004 Malawi Integrated Household Survey. Instrumenting consumption expenditure with a location dummy variable and interacting consumption expenditure with household land-holding size in probit models, the likelihood of child labour is found to relate negatively with household consumption. On the other hand child labour relates positively with household land-holding size for consumption poor households only and when labour markets are imperfect. These findings do not discourage asset accumulation policies as a remedy against child labour but support policies that aim at increasing returns on the assets.Child labour, Poverty, Assets, Malawi

The role of shocks and risks for the livelihoods of small scale fishing communities of Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands in Nigeria

This paper assesses the impact of risks and shocks on household welfare in the Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands in Nigeria. We use estimated income loss in consumption equations to assess the impact. Our findings identify death of an adult member, drought, and social conflict as important shocks in the area. These shocks are more significant in reducing household food consumption than non-food consumption. Additionally, we find that farming dependent households suffer more from social conflicts; fishing households suffer more from drought; while the impact of death of an adult member does not depend on household livelihood strategies. Since the shocks that significantly reduce household consumption are not specific to such communities, we conclude that fishing communities do not need special social protection policies but these should not be left out in these programs. Further research should consider understanding the roles of off farm activities as ex-ante risk mitigation strategies or ex-post coping strategies. --

Does seasonal vulnerability to poverty matter? A case study from the Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands in Nigeria

Applying research on vulnerability to seasonal data, we assess seasonal vulnerability to poverty using panel data from the Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands in Nigeria involving 260. We find that both observed poverty and vulnerability to poverty vary seasonally and that these variations are related to household livelihood strategies. Basing on our findings policy interventions should aim at increasing crop productivity (both food and cash crops) and returns to crop sales as well as promoting income diversification to off-farm activities. Safety net programs should be implemented only after productivity-enhancing interventions have been implemented. Further research is proposed to particularly assess the influence of seasonal variation on household livelihood choices. --Vulnerability to poverty,Seasonality,Social protection,Nigeria

Child labour and poverty linkages: A micro analysis from rural Malawian data

This study assesses the impact of income and asset poverty on child work using the rural sub-sample of the 2004 Malawi Integrated Household Survey. Instrumenting consumption expenditure with a location dummy variable and interacting consumption expenditure with household land-holding size in probit models, the likelihood of child labour is found to relate negatively with household consumption. On the other hand child labour relates positively with household land-holding size for consumption poor households only and when labour markets are imperfect. These findings do not discourage asset accumulation policies as a remedy against child labour but support policies that aim at increasing returns on the assets

Poverty, vulnerability and livelihoods in small scale fishing communities in Nigeria

[no abstract

Child labour and poverty linkages: A micro analysis from rural Malawian data

This study assesses the impact of income and asset poverty on child work using the rural sub-sample of the 2004 Malawi Integrated Household Survey. Instrumenting consumption expenditure with a location dummy variable and interacting consumption expenditure with household land-holding size in probit models, the likelihood of child labour is found to relate negatively with household consumption. On the other hand child labour relates positively with household land-holding size for consumption poor households only and when labour markets are imperfect. These findings do not discourage asset accumulation policies as a remedy against child labour but support policies that aim at increasing returns on the assets

Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment

Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability

Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment

Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability

Abstracts of the 20th College of Medicine Research Dissemination Conference

No Abstract