Medium-term Outcomes of Myocarditis and Pericarditis following BNT162b2 Vaccination among Adolescents in Hong Kong

In this study, we examined the clinical and electrophysiological outcomes of adolescents in Hong Kong who developed myocarditis or pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination for COVID-19, and followed-up for 60 to 180 days after their initial diagnosis. Clinical assessments included electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram at the initial admission and follow-up were compared. Treadmill testing was also performed in some cases. Between 14 June 2021 and 16 February 2022, 53 subjects were approached to participate in this follow-up study, of which 28 patients were followed up for >60 days with a median follow-up period of 100 days (range, 61-178 days) and were included in this study. On admission, 23 patients had ECG abnormalities but no high-grade atrioventricular block. Six patients had echocardiogram abnormalities, including reduced contractility, small rim pericardial effusions, and hyperechoic ventricular walls. All patients achieved complete recovery on follow-up. After discharge, 10 patients (35.7%) reported symptoms, including occasional chest pain, shortness of breath, reduced exercise tolerance, and recurrent vasovagal near-syncope. At follow-up, assessments, including ECGs, were almost all normal. Among the three patients with possible ECG abnormalities, all their echocardiograms or treadmill testings were normal. Sixteen patients (57.1%) underwent treadmill testing at a median of 117 days post-admission, which were also normal. However, at follow-up, there was a significant mean bodyweight increase of 1.81kg (95%CI 0.47-3.1 kg, p=0.01), possibly due to exercise restriction. In conclusion, most adolescents experiencing myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination achieved complete recovery. Some patients developed non-specific persistent symptoms, and bodyweight changes shall be monitored

Validation of Statistical Models for Estimating Hospitalization Associated with Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

BACKGROUND: Reliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons <18 years residing in Hong Kong Island. Here we used this dataset to validate two commonly used models for estimation of influenza disease burden, namely the rate difference model and Poisson regression model, and also explored the applicability of these models to estimate the disease burden of other respiratory viruses. The Poisson regression models with different link functions all yielded estimates well correlated with the virologically confirmed influenza associated hospitalization, especially in children older than two years. The disease burden estimates for RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus were less reliable with wide confidence intervals. The rate difference model was not applicable to RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus and grossly underestimated the true burden of influenza associated hospitalization. CONCLUSION: The Poisson regression model generally produced satisfactory estimates in calculating the disease burden of respiratory viruses in a subtropical region such as Hong Kong

Seasonal effects of influenza on mortality in a subtropical city

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza has been associated with a heavy burden of mortality. In tropical or subtropical regions where influenza viruses circulate in the community most of the year, it is possible that there are seasonal variations in the effects of influenza on mortality, because of periodic changes in environment and host factors as well as the frequent emergence of new antigenically drifted virus strains. In this paper we explored this seasonal effect of influenza.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A time-varying coefficient Poisson regression model was fitted to the weekly numbers of mortality of Hong Kong from 1996 to 2002. Excess risks associated with influenza were calculated to assess the seasonal effects of influenza.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the effects of influenza were higher in winter and late spring/early summer than other seasons. The two-peak pattern of seasonal effects of influenza was found for cardio-respiratory disease and sub-categories pneumonia and influenza, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart disease as well as for all-cause deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results provide insight into the possibility that seasonal factors may have impact on virulence of influenza besides their effects on virus transmission. The results warrant further studies into the mechanisms behind the seasonal effect of influenza.</p

Predicting Exchange Rates in Asia: New Insights on the Accuracy of Survey Forecasts

This paper evaluates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar using common forecast accuracy measures. Additionally, the rationality of the exchange rate predictions are assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency. All investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. However, these results are inconsistent with an alternative measure of rationality based on methods of applied time series analysis. Investigating the order of integration of the time series and using cointegration analysis, empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are less convincing, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one important evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security

Presentation and Outcome of Acute Necrotizing Encephalopathy of Childhood: A 10-Year Single-Center Retrospective Study From Hong Kong

Acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE) is a rare disease in childhood. We reviewed the 10-year data from a local pediatric department, reported the clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, neuroimaging findings, and outcome of the acute necrotizing encephalopathy cases and identified the potential factors affecting the outcome. Eight episodes of acute necrotizing encephalopathy among 7 patients were recorded, in which all of them had an initial presentation of fever and seizure. We identified that acute necrotizing encephalopathy patients with a severe score of Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on presentation, brainstem involvement in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain, and higher MR imaging scores were associated with worse outcome. Association of outcome with acute necrotizing encephalopathy severity score, platelet count, and serum alanine aminotransferase level did not reach a statistically significant level. These results highlight the importance of combined clinical, laboratory, and neuroimaging findings in determining the prognostic outcome of acute necrotizing encephalopathy patients. </jats:p

Beyond the Gates of Euclidean Space: Temporal-Discrimination-Fusions and Attention-based Graph Neural Network for Human Activity Recognition

Human activity recognition (HAR) through wearable devices has received much interest due to its numerous applications in fitness tracking, wellness screening, and supported living. As a result, we have seen a great deal of work in this field. Traditional deep learning (DL) has set a state of the art performance for HAR domain. However, it ignores the data's structure and the association between consecutive time stamps. To address this constraint, we offer an approach based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for structuring the input representation and exploiting the relations among the samples. However, even when using a simple graph convolution network to eliminate this shortage, there are still several limiting factors, such as inter-class activities issues, skewed class distribution, and a lack of consideration for sensor data priority, all of which harm the HAR model's performance. To improve the current HAR model's performance, we investigate novel possibilities within the framework of graph structure to achieve highly discriminated and rich activity features. We propose a model for (1) time-series-graph module that converts raw data from HAR dataset into graphs; (2) Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNs) to discover local dependencies and correlations between neighboring nodes; and (3) self-attention GNN encoder to identify sensors interactions and data priorities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work for HAR, which introduces a GNN-based approach that incorporates both the GCN and the attention mechanism. By employing a uniform evaluation method, our framework significantly improves the performance on hospital patient's activities dataset comparatively considered other state of the art baseline methods

KCNQ2 Encephalopathy and Responsiveness to Pyridoxal-5′-Phosphate

Abstract KCNQ2 mutations encompass a wide range of phenotypes, ranging from benign familial neonatal seizure to a clinical spectrum of early-onset epileptic encephalopathy that occurs in the early neonatal period. We report an infant with KCNQ2 encephalopathy presenting as neonatal seizure, initially controlled by two anticonvulsants. Electroencephalogram (EEG) showed repetitive multifocal epileptiform discharges, which remained similar after administration of intravenous pyridoxine injection. Seizure recurred at the age of 3 months preceded by an episode of minor viral infection, which occurred multiple times per day. No significant change in seizure frequency was observed after 5-day oral pyridoxine trial, but subsequently, there was dramatic seizure improvement with oral pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP). We hope to alert clinicians that in patients with neonatal epileptic encephalopathy, particularly with known KCNQ2 mutations, intravenous injection of pyridoxine (preferably with EEG monitoring), followed by both oral trial of pyridoxine and PLP should be considered. KCNQ2 mutations should also be considered in vitamin B6-responsive patients.</jats:p