A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity:Active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic setting, is resource intensive, and can carry large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated by combining fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We apply this approach to southern Malawi, near the southern end of the East African Rift, and where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are constraints on strain partitioning between border and intra-basin faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database of 23 active fault traces, and the South Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (SMSSD), in which we apply our systems-based approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals for the faults compiled in the SMAFD. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMSSD and MW 5.6–7.8 for whole-fault ruptures. However, low fault slip rates (intermediate estimates ∼ 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intra-basin faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can best be reduced with improved geodetic constraints in southern Malawi. The SMAFD and SMSSD provide a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterise seismic hazard in regions with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and they could be adapted for use elsewhere in the East African Rift and globally

Geodetic constraints on cratonic microplates and broad strain during rifting of thick Southern African lithosphere

Southern Africa is typically considered to belong to a single tectonic plate, Nubia, despite active faulting along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift System. We analyze regional Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, and find that the “San” microplate, situated south of the southwestern branch of the East African Rift, is statistically distinct from Nubia, with 0.4–0.7 mm/yr of extension across the boundary. Adding nine new campaign GNSS sites, we show that the extension rate across the southern Malawi Rift is 2.2 ± 0.3 mm/yr, with 75% of the relative velocity occurring over 890 km, despite the surface expression of faulting being <150 km wide. Thus, for the first time, we use geodetic measurements to describe the accommodation of strain in broad zones between Archean cratons in southern Africa's thick continental lithosphere

Passive Rifting of Thick Lithosphere in the Southern East African Rift: Evidence from Mantle Transition Zone Discontinuity Topography

To investigate the mechanisms for the initiation and early-stage evolution of the nonvolcanic southernmost segments of the East African Rift System (EARS), we installed and operated 35 broadband seismic stations across the Malawi and Luangwa rift zones over a 2 year period from mid-2012 to mid-2014. Stacking of over 1900 high-quality receiver functions provides the first regional-scale image of the 410 and 660 km seismic discontinuities bounding the mantle transition zone (MTZ) within the vicinity of the rift zones. When a 1-D standard Earth model is used for time-depth conversion, a normal MTZ thickness of 250 km is found beneath most of the study area. In addition, the apparent depths of both discontinuities are shallower than normal with a maximum apparent uplift of 20 km, suggesting widespread upper mantle high-velocity anomalies. These findings suggest that it is unlikely for a low-velocity province to reside within the upper mantle or MTZ beneath the nonvolcanic southern EARS. They also support the existence of relatively thick and strong lithosphere corresponding to the widest section of the Malawi rift zone, an observation that is consistent with strain localization models and fault polarity and geometry observations. We postulate that the Malawi rift is driven primarily by passive extension within the lithosphere attributed to the divergent rotation of the Rovuma microplate relative to the Nubian plate, and that contributions of thermal upwelling from the lower mantle are insignificant in the initiation and early-stage development of rift zones in southern Africa

Under-displaced normal faults: Strain accommodation along an early-stage rift-bounding fault in the Southern Malawi Rift

One of the fundamental problems in continental rift segmentation and propagation is how strain is accommodated along large rift-bounding faults (border faults) since the segmentation of propagating border faults control the expression of rift zones, syn-rift depo-centers, and long-term basin evolution. In the Southern Malawi Rift, where previous studies on the early-stage rifting only assessed border fault structure from surficial and topographic expression, we integrate surface and subsurface data to investigate border fault segmentation, linkage, and growth as proxies for strain accommodation along the Bilila-Mtakataka Fault (BMF) System. We used 30�m-resolution topographic relief maps, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and high-resolution aeromagnetic data to characterize the detailed fault geometry and provide a more robust estimate of along-fault displacement distribution. Our results reveal a discrepancy between sub-aerial segmentation of the BMF geometry (six segments), scarp height (five segments) reflecting the most recent episodes of fault offset, and cumulative throw (three composite segments) reflecting the long-term fault offset. We also observe that although the BMF exhibits continuity of sub-aerial scarps along its length, the throw distribution shows a higher estimate at the Northern-to-Central segment relay zone (423�m absolute, 364�m moving median) compared to the Central-to-Southern segment relay zone (371�m absolute, 297�m moving median). The ERT profiles across the relay zones suggest a shallower basement and a possible canyon-mouth alluvial fan stratigraphy at the Central-to-Southern segment relay zone, contrasting the deeper basement and 'simpler'� electrical stratigraphy at the Northern-to-Central relay. The results suggest a more complex long-term evolution of the BMF than was assumed in previous studies. A comparison of BMF's maximum displacement-vs-length with those of other Malawi Rift border faults and global normal fault populations suggest that although the BMF has possibly reached its maximum length, it remains largely under-displaced as its 580-837�m maximum displacement is significantly lower than that of faults of equivalent length. We suggest that the BMF may continue to accrue significant strain as tectonic extension progresses in the Southern Malawi Rift, thus posing a major seismic hazard in the region.Peer reviewedGeolog

The Malawi Active Fault Database: an onshore-offshore database for regional assessment of seismic hazard and tectonic evolution

We present the Malawi Active Fault Database (MAFD), an open-access (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507190) geospatial database of 113 fault traces in Malawi and neighboring Tanzania and Mozambique. Malawi is located within the East African Rift’s Western Branch where active fault identification is challenging because chronostratigraphic data are rare, and/or faults are buried and so do not have a surface expression. The MAFD therefore includes any fault that has evidence for displacement during Cenozoic East African rifting, or is buried beneath the rift valley and is favorably oriented to the regional stresses. To identify such faults, we consider a multidisciplinary dataset: high resolution digital elevation models, previous geological mapping, field observations, seismic reflection surveys from offshore Lake Malawi, and aeromagnetic and gravity data. The MAFD includes faults throughout Malawi, where seismic risk is increasing because of population growth and its seismically vulnerable building stock. We also investigate the database as a sample of the normal fault population in an incipient continental rift. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that the distribution of fault lengths in the MAFD is described by a power law, which is consistent with Malawi’s relatively thick seismogenic layer (30-40 km), low (<8%) regional extensional strain, and deformation localization (50-75%) across relatively long hard-linked border faults. Cumulatively, we highlight the importance of integrating onshore and offshore geological and geophysical data to develop active fault databases along the East African Rift and similar continental settings, both to understand the regional seismic hazard and tectonic evolution

Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi’s active faults: the Malawi seismogenic source model (MSSM)

Active fault data are commonly used in seismic hazard assessments, but there are challenges in deriving the slip rate, geometry, and frequency of earthquakes along active faults. Herein, we present the open-access geospatial Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (MSSD), which describes the seismogenic properties of faults that have formed during East African rifting in Malawi. We first use empirical observations to geometrically classify active faults into section, fault, and multi-fault seismogenic sources. For sources in the North Basin of Lake Malawi, slip rates can be derived from the vertical offset of a seismic reflector that is estimated to be 75 ka based on dated core. Elsewhere, slip rates are constrained from advancing a ‘systems-based’ approach that partitions geodetically-derived rift extension rates in Malawi between seismogenic sources using a priori constraints on regional strain distribution in magma-poor continental rifts. Slip rates are then combined with source geometry and empirical scaling relationships to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals, and their uncertainty is described from the variability of outcomes from a logic tree used in these calculations. We find that for sources in the Lake Malawi’s North Basin, where slip rates can be derived from both the geodetic data and the offset seismic reflector, the slip rate estimates are within error of each other, although those from the offset reflector are higher. Sources in the MSSD are 5–200 km long, which implies that large magnitude (MW 7–8) earthquakes may occur in Malawi. Low slip rates (0.05–2 mm/yr), however, mean that the frequency of such events will be low (recurrence intervals ~103–104 years). The MSSD represents an important resource for investigating Malawi’s increasing seismic risks and provides a framework for incorporating active fault data into seismic hazard assessment in other tectonically active regions

Ranking and developing ground-motion models for Southeastern Africa

The southern East African Rift System (EARS) is an early-stage continental rift with a deep seismogenic zone. It is associated with a low-to-moderate seismic hazard, but due to its short and sparse instrumental record, there is a lack of ground-motion studies in the region. Instead, seismic hazard assessments have commonly relied on a combination of active crustal and stable continental ground-motion models (GMMs) from other regions without accounting for the unusual geological setting of this region and evaluating their suitability. Here, we use a newly compiled southern EARS ground-motion database to compare six active crustal GMMs and four stable continental GMMs. We find that the active crustal GMMs tend to underestimate the ground-motion intensities observed, while the stable continental GMMs overestimate them. This is particularly pronounced in the high-frequency intensity measures (.5 Hz). We also use the referenced empirical approach and develop a new region-specific GMM for southern EARS. Both the ranked GMMs and our new GMM result in large residual variabilities, highlighting the need for local geotechnical information to better constrain site conditions