The rise and fall of tuberculosis in Malawi: associations with HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Since 1985, Malawi has experienced a dual epidemic of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) which has been moderated recently by the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to describe the association over several decades between HIV/AIDS, the scale-up of ART and TB case notifications. METHODS: Aggregate data were extracted from annual reports of the National TB Control Programme, the Ministry of Health HIV Department and the National Statistics Office. ART coverage was calculated using the total HIV population as denominator (derived from UNAIDS Spectrum software). RESULTS: In 1970, there were no HIV-infected persons but numbers had increased to a maximum of 1.18 million by 2014. HIV prevalence reached a maximum of 10.8% in 2000, thereafter decreasing to 7.5% by 2014. Numbers alive on ART increased from 2586 in 2003 to 536 527 (coverage 45.3%) by 2014. In 1985, there were 5286 TB cases which reached a maximum of 28 234 in 2003 and then decreased to 17 723 by 2014 (37% decline from 2003). There were increases in all types of new TB between 1998-2003 which then declined by 30% for extrapulmonary TB, by 37% for new smear-positive PTB and by 50% for smear-negative PTB. Previously treated TB cases reached a maximum of 3443 in 2003 and then declined by 42% by 2014. CONCLUSION: The rise and fall of TB in Malawi between 1985 and 2014 was strongly associated with HIV infection and ART scale-up; this has implications for ending the TB epidemic in high HIV-TB burden countries

Operational research in Malawi: making a difference with cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in patients with tuberculosis and HIV.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, high case fatality rates in patients with tuberculosis, who were also co-infected with HIV, and high early death rates in people living with HIV during the initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adversely impacted on treatment outcomes for the national tuberculosis and ART programmes respectively. This article i) discusses the operational research that was conducted in the country on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, ii) outlines the steps that were taken to translate these findings into national policy and practice, iii) shows how the implementation of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy for both TB patients and HIV-infected patients starting ART was associated with reduced death rates, and iv) highlights lessons that can be learnt for other settings and interventions. DISCUSSION: District and facility-based operational research was undertaken between 1999 and 2005 to assess the effectiveness of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in reducing death rates in TB patients and subsequently in patients starting ART under routine programme conditions. Studies demonstrated significant reductions in case fatality in HIV-infected TB patients receiving cotrimoxazole and in HIV-infected patients about to start ART. Following the completion of research, the findings were rapidly disseminated nationally at stakeholder meetings convened by the Ministry of Health and internationally through conferences and peer-reviewed scientific publications. The Ministry of Health made policy changes based on the available evidence, following which there was countrywide distribution of the updated policy and guidelines. Policy was rapidly moved to practice with the development of monitoring tools, drug procurement and training packages. National programme performance improved which showed a significant decrease in case fatality rates in TB patients as well as a reduction in early death in people with HIV starting ART. SUMMARY: Key lessons for moving this research endeavour through to policy and practice were the importance of placing operational research within the programme, defining relevant questions, obtaining "buy-in" from national programme staff at the beginning of projects and having key actors or "policy entrepreneurs" to push forward the policy-making process. Ultimately, any change in policy and practice has to benefit patients, and the ultimate judge of success is whether treatment outcomes improve or not

Using Touchscreen Electronic Medical Record Systems to Support and Monitor National Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in Malawi

Gerry Douglas and colleagues describe the rationale and their experience with scaling up electronic health records in six antiretroviral treatment sites in Malawi

Random walks on a p-adic tree

We construct a Markov process on the p-adic numbers, which are identified with the ends of an infinite, homogeneous tree. We compute the associated kernel by using the theory of Gelfand pairs and spherical functions on the group of isometries. We show that this process is equivalent to a random walk on p-adics, constructed by Albeverio and Karwowski (1991). (orig.)Available from FIZ Karlsruhe / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Improving data quality and supervision of antiretroviral therapy sites in Malawi: an application of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High quality program data is critical for managing, monitoring, and evaluating national HIV treatment programs. By 2009, the Malawi Ministry of Health had initiated more than 270,000 patients on HIV treatment at 377 sites. Quarterly supervision of these antiretroviral therapy (ART) sites ensures high quality care, but the time currently dedicated to exhaustive record review and data cleaning detracts from other critical components. The exhaustive record review is unlikely to be sustainable long term because of the resources required and increasing number of patients on ART. This study quantifies the current levels of data quality and evaluates Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) as a tool to prioritize sites with low data quality, thus lowering costs while maintaining sufficient quality for program monitoring and patient care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In January 2010, a study team joined supervision teams at 19 sites purposely selected to reflect the variety of ART sites. During the exhaustive data review, the time allocated to data cleaning and data discrepancies were documented. The team then randomly sampled 76 records from each site, recording secondary outcomes and the time required for sampling.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the 19 sites, only 1.2% of records had discrepancies in patient outcomes and 0.4% in treatment regimen. However, data cleaning took 28.5 hours in total, suggesting that data cleaning for all 377 ART sites would require over 350 supervision-hours quarterly. The LQAS tool accurately identified the sites with the low data quality, reduced the time for data cleaning by 70%, and allowed for reporting on secondary outcomes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most sites maintained high quality records. In spite of this, data cleaning required significant amounts of time with little effect on program estimates of patient outcomes. LQAS conserves resources while maintaining sufficient data quality for program assessment and management to allow for quality patient care.</p

Dried Blood Spots for Viral Load Monitoring in Malawi: Feasible and Effective

To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of dried blood spots (DBS) use for viral load (VL) monitoring, describing patient outcomes and programmatic challenges that are relevant for DBS implementation in sub-Saharan Africa.We recruited adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients from five district hospitals in Malawi. Eligibility reflected anticipated Ministry of Health VL monitoring criteria. Testing was conducted at a central laboratory. Virological failure was defined as >5000 copies/ml. Primary outcomes were program feasibility (timely result availability and patient receipt) and effectiveness (second-line therapy initiation).We enrolled 1,498 participants; 5.9% were failing at baseline. Median time from enrollment to receipt of results was 42 days; 79.6% of participants received results within 3 months. Among participants with confirmed elevated VL, 92.6% initiated second-line therapy; 90.7% were switched within 365 days of VL testing. Nearly one-third (30.8%) of participants with elevated baseline VL had suppressed (4 years were more likely to be failing than participants on therapy 1-4 years (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.8); older participants were less likely to be failing (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98). There was no difference in likelihood of failure based on clinical symptoms (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.65-2.11).DBS for VL monitoring is feasible and effective in real-world clinical settings. Centralized DBS testing may increase access to VL monitoring in remote settings. Programmatic outcomes are encouraging, especially proportion of eligible participants switched to second-line therapy