Agent-Based Modeling of a Non-tâtonnement Process for the Scarf Economy: The Role of Learning

In this paper, we propose a meta-learning model to hierarchically integrate individual learning and social learning schemes. This meta-learning model is incorporated into an agent-based model to show that Herbert Scarf’s famous counterexample on Walrasian stability can become stable in some cases under a non-tâtonnement process when both learning schemes are involved, a result previously obtained by Herbert Gintis. However, we find that the stability of the competitive equilibrium depends on how individuals learn—whether they are innovators (individual learners) or imitators (social learners), and their switching frequency (mobility) between the two. We show that this endogenous behavior, apart from the initial population of innovators, is mainly determined by the agents’ intensity of choice. This study grounds the Walrasian competitive equilibrium based on the view of a balanced resource allocation between exploitation and exploration. This balance, achieved through a meta-learning model, is shown to be underpinned by a behavioral/psychological characteristic

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data

Agent-Based Prediction Market: Market Mechanism, Social Network, and Social Intelligence

[[sponsorship]]The Society for Computational Economics[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20120627~20120629[[booktype]]電子版[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Prague, Czech Republi

Personality and Preference: A Laboratory Study

[[abstract]]This paper attempts to explain the relationship between personality traits and commodity preferences. The norm-referenced test of personality has been used so as to infer economic behavior with a limited sample size. In this study, we use Lai’s Personality Inventory to measure introversion, extroversion, mental health, emotional stability and social adaptability of subjects.In addition to existing psychological measurements, we have also developed measurements for the rationale of decision-making over various commodities, based on the subjects’ behavior of selectivity and utility maximization. The results have shown that the behavior in the pursuit of utility is associated with a person's emotional stability and mental health. Emotional instability and poor mental health often result in a deviation from utility maximization.[[notice]]補正完畢[[journaltype]]國外[[ispeerreviewed]]Y[[booktype]]紙本[[countrycodes]]US

Innovation Behavior and Market Selection: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

[[abstract]]In this study, the simple genetic programming has been modified by the automatically defined terminals. An agent-based two-firm competition market is build to test firms' survivabilities. Through the simulation, we discover the significance of genetic operator rates in product designs by observing its impact on consumer satisfaction and firms' competitiveness.[[sponsorship]]Department of Industrial Economics, Tamkang University[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencetkucampus]]淡水校園[[conferencedate]]20090313~20090314[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Taipei, Taiwa

Market Power and the Hayek Hypothesis: An Experimental Investigation

The inconsistency in the literature regarding price behavior in markets with market power suggested that traders are heterogeneous in their ability to discover and exercise their influences on market price. To examine whether inequality in subjects’ market performance can be attributed to the heterogeneity of their cognitive capacity, we adopt a single-subject experimental design and inspect whether subjects can discover and exercise their market power by withholding part of their units. We use the Cognitive Reflection Test to gauge subjects’ cognitive ability and investigate whether subjects with higher cognitive abilities will be better at exercising their market power to influence the price to gain extra profits. We observe heterogenous price behavior. However, there is no evidence that higher CRT scores were associated with better price convergence to the competitive equilibrium. Further, the revelation of information only altered some subjects’ behavior.補正完

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.補正完畢GB

Does ownership structure matter for overshooting manipulation of hospitality and tourism stocks?

We investigate whether the function of ownership structure influences stock price overshooting manipulation for Taiwan Stock Exchange-listed tourism and hospitality firms because stock price overshooting occurs frequently for these firms after Chinese authorities relax restrictions on tourists visiting Taiwan. As a result, we demonstrate that some of these firms with a poorly functioning ownership structure may manipulate their share prices, resulting in overshooting phenomena, especially for stock price overbought phenomena. Following that, we discover that the directors and managers of these firms reduce their shareholdings, implying that such firms are likely to have corporate governance issues補正完畢US

Efficiency of the Experimental Prediction Market: Public Information, Belief Evolution, and Personality Traits

[[abstract]]This paper examines the ability of markets to aggregate information so that the price generated from the market contains the best estimate of all the available information. The paper investigates how individuals “update” their initial beliefs from their public and private information in light of market prices. In particular, the paper looks at individuals' weighting of public information versus private information. Also, the volume of information in the market via an increased number of traders with private information has a positive impact on the quality of the market price. Lastly, the personality traits of the traders seem to provide some positive impact if the traders are diverse in terms of the proportion of "efficient and organized" traders in the market.[[notice]]補正完