The economic consequences of population and urbanization growth in Italy: from the 13th century to 1900. A discussion on the Malthusian dynamics

In this paper we investigate the quantitative relation between population, real wages and urbanization in the Italian economy during the period 1320-1870. In this period the prevailing conditions were those of a poor, mainly agricultural economy with limited human capital and rudimentary technology. However, these centuries witnessed the considerable growth of urban centers, which was not only a significant demographic phenomenon in itself. The multiplication of such agglomerations had a striking influence on mortality and hence on the general course of the economy in this period. We present two main results i) the positive check is strong and statistically significant and it explains an important part of the dynamic of mortality but the other equilibrating mechanism in the Malthusian model -the preventive check- based on the positive relationship between fertility and real wages does not operate; ii) the urbanization process and the flows of rural immigrants which fuelled it, had profound, complex implications on productivity in agriculture and on wages and population dynamics.Malthusian dynamics, Urbanization, Pre-industrial labor productivity, Poulation trend, Demographic changes.

On large deviations for small noise It\^o processes

The large deviation principle in the small noise limit is derived for solutions of possibly degenerate It\^o stochastic differential equations with predictable coefficients, which may depend also on the large deviation parameter. The result is established under mild assumptions using the Dupuis-Ellis weak convergence approach. Applications to certain systems with memory and to positive diffusions with square-root-like dispersion coefficient are included.Comment: 30 page

Entropic repulsion for the occupation-time field of random interlacements conditioned on disconnection

We investigate percolation of the vacant set of random interlacements on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\geq 3$, in the strongly percolative regime. We consider the event that the interlacement set at level $u$ disconnects the discrete blow-up of a compact set $A\subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ from the boundary of an enclosing box. We derive asymptotic large deviation upper bounds on the probability that the local averages of the occupation times deviate from a specific function depending on the harmonic potential of $A$, when disconnection occurs. If certain critical levels coincide, which is plausible but open at the moment, these bounds imply that conditionally on disconnection, the occupation-time profile undergoes an entropic push governed by a specific function depending on $A$. Similar entropic repulsion phenomena conditioned on disconnection by level-sets of the discrete Gaussian free field on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d \geq 3$, have been obtained by the authors in arxiv:1808.09947. Our proofs rely crucially on the `solidification estimates' developed in arXiv:1706.07229 by A.-S. Sznitman and the second author.Comment: 35 pages, 2 figures, accepted in the Annals of Probabilit

Local Central Limit Theorem for diffusions in a degenerate and unbounded Random Medium

We study a symmetric diffusion $X$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ in divergence form in a stationary and ergodic environment, with measurable unbounded and degenerate coefficients. We prove a quenched local central limit theorem for $X$, under some moment conditions on the environment; the key tool is a local parabolic Harnack inequality obtained with Moser iteration technique.Comment: 25 page

Market Consumption and Hidden Consumption: A Test for Substitutability

In this paper we perform an empirical analysis on the relationship between private consumption and underground economy for the Italian case. We find that private market consumption and underground (or hidden) consumption may be defined as ”complementary goods”: an increase in underground consumption tends to rise family market consumption and increase its marginal utility. An implication of this result is that the nonmarket sector does not offer hedging opportunities to the consumer-worker as stressed in Busato and Chiarini (2002) artificial economy. Moreover, wealth effects associated with a change in underground consumption are negative. A statistical model confirms this structural interpretation.-

Discretionary policy, strategic complementarity and tax evasion. A strategic analysis of the Italian audit mechanism

Underlying this work is the idea that there is a problem of strategic complementarity of individuals who choose to evade. Complementarity results from the discretionary policies of governments and the strategic implications of the Studi di Settore (Sector Studies), the mechanism used in Italy to evaluate the income (in reality, the turnover) of professional categories and small firms. In the Italian case, policy discretion and the Sector Studies lead to a failure of the coordination mechanism of taxpayers and confer a strong advantage for the coordination mechanism of tax evaders. The outcome is a coordination failure where individuals converge to the least efficient equilibrium from a social perspective.Tax Evasion; Tax Compliance; Audit Selection Mechanism; Complementarity.

Steady state Laffer curve with the underground economy

This paper studies equilibrium effects of fiscal policy within a dynamic general equilibrium model where tax evasion and underground activities are explicitly incorporated. In particular, we show that a dynamic general equilibrium with tax evasion may give a rational justification for a variant of the Laffer curve for a plausible parameterization. In this respect, the paper also identifies the different parameterization of the model formulation with tax evasion under which a Laffer curve exist. From a revenue maximizing perspective, the key policy messages are that bringing tax payers to compliance would be better than announcing to punish them if convicted, and that an economy without problems of compliance is much more sensitive to myopic behavior.Two-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Models, Fiscal Policy, Tax Evasion and Underground Activities.

Structural and Cyclical Patterns of Underground Labour Input in Italy from 1980 to 2004

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MARKET COMSUMPTION AND HIDDEN CONSUMPTION. A TEST FOR SUBSTITUTABILITY

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