Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Mortality in OECD Countries

The major contribution of this study is to combines both climatic and macroeconomic factors simultaneously in the estimation of mortality using the capital city of 22 OECD countries from the period 1990 to 2008. The empirical results provide strong evidences that higher income and a lower unemployment rate could reduce mortality rates, while the increases in precipitation and temperature variation have significantly positive impacts on the mortality rates. The effects of changing average temperature on mortality rates in summer and winter are asymmetrical and also depend on the location. Combining the future climate change scenarios with the estimation outcomes show that mortality rates in OECD countries in 2100 will be increased by 3.77% to 5.89%.Climate change; mortality; panel data model

Globalization and Knowledge Spillover: International Direct Investment, Exports and Patents

This paper examines the impact of the three main channels of international trade on domestic innovation, namely outward direct investment, inward direct investment (IDI) and exports. The number of Triadic patents serves as a proxy for innovation. The data set contains 37 countries that are considered to be highly competitive in the world market, covering the period 1994 to 2005. The empirical results show that increased exports and outward direct investment are able to stimulate an increase in patent output. In contrast, IDI exhibits a negative relationship with domestic patents. The paper shows that the impact of IDI on domestic innovation is characterized by two forces, and the positive effect of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by foreigners is less than the negative effect of the remaining IDI.International direct investment; Export; Triadic Patent; Outward Direct Investment; Inward Direct Investment; R&D; negative binomial model

The Wider Spatial-Economic Impacts of High-Speed Trains: A Comparative Case Study of the Lille and Manchester Sub-Regions

This paper will present empirical evidence on the wider spatial-economic impacts of High Speed Trains (HSTs) at the intra-regional level. It represents follow-up research to a previous empirical study at inter-regional level, based on UKIC125- an upgraded HST system. The findings suggest that HST has had substantial and demonstrable effects in aiding this transition within a 2-hour travel limit of London, but that the effects have not been automatic or universal. The need for integrated planning combining transport, economic, and spatial issues to promote dynamic city-region development should not be overlooked. Particularly, the UK is currently situated at the critical turning point considering a long-term commitment to High Speed Two (HS2): whether, to what extent, and how the arrival of a HST hub in a city could act as the agent of change for transforming surrounding sub-regions. Thus, a finer-grained and deeper-probing analysis at the intra-regional scale is needed, in the form of comparative case studies of two post-industrial city-regions. Lille/Pas-de-Calais and the Manchester city-region are chosen, the first to examine the effects of the TGV after its arrival in 1994, the second to provide a prognosis for Manchester and its neighbouring towns after the projected arrival of HS2. In the Lille Métropole, the TGV brought about a dramatic change in economic fortunes. But, within the wider Nord-Pas de Calais region, two divergent developmental trajectories of traditional manufacturing industries have increasingly manifested themselves: Lille Métropole has increasingly strengthened its service-based growth, whereas the former coal area and coastal region seems not to have attracted knowledge-based development. In the Manchester city-region, the new generation of 300 k/hr HST lines will undoubtedly in their turn have major spatial-economic impacts as Manchester is brought closer to London with the dramatic shrinking of critical time-distance. The relationship between Manchester and its neighbouring towns may however be negative to poorly connected towns like Burnley which is reflected in its weak economic performance. Overall, this research aims to fill in the gap with empirical evidence of intra-regional impacts of HSTs and disentangle the complex forces and the developmental phases in the dynamic process of city-region regeneration

Price Stabilization in the Taiwan Hog and Broiler Industries: Evidence from a STAR Approach

The paper examines the effectiveness of the price stabilization mechanism for the broiler and poultry industry in Taiwan during the period 1999 to 2008. After presenting some background information on the domestic marketing system and price stabilization mechanisms for the broiler and pork industry in Taiwan, the paper discusses the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) methodology. Monthly hog and broiler price data from 1999 to 2008 at farm, import and retail levels are analyzed using the nonlinear, non-asymmetric logistic STAR model in order to determine price transmission structure. A price threshold parameter is used so that price transmission levels can vary, thereby allowing an examination of the efficacy with which the hog and broiler price stabilization mechanisms take effect.Broiler industry, Pork industry, Price stabilization, Domestic marketing system, Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) methodology

Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets

This paper examines the long- and short-run asymmetric adjustments for nine pairs of spot and futures prices, itemized as three own pairs for three different bio-fuel ethanol types, three own pairs for three related agricultural products, namely corn, soybeans and sugar, and three cross pairs that included hybrids of the spot price of each of the agricultural products and an ethanol futures price. Most of the spreads’ asymmetric adjustments generally happen during narrowing. The three ethanol pairs that contain the eCBOT futures with each of Chicago spot, New York Harbor spot and Western European (Rotterdam) spot show different long-run adjustments, arbitrage profitable opportunities and price risk hedging capabilities. The asymmetric spread adjustments for the three grains are also different, with corn spread showing the strongest long-run widening adjustment, and sugar showing the weakest narrowing adjustment. Among others, the empirical analysis indicates the importance of potentially hedging the spot prices of agricultural commodities with ethanol futures contracts, which sends an important message that the ethanol futures market is capable of hedging price risk in agricultural commodity markets. The short-run asymmetric adjustments for individual prices in the nine pairs (with exception of the corn own pair underscore the importance of futures prices in the price discovery and hedging potential, particularly for ethanol futures.Long-run and short-run asymmetric adjustments; ethanol; agricultural products; arbitrage opportunities; hedging; widening and narrowing adjustment

Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analyzed. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price, which explains why global fertilizer prices reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship between oil price and global fertilizer prices and their associated volatility is important for public policy relating to the development of optimal energy use, global agricultural production, and financial integration.Volatility; Global fertilizer price; Crude oil price; Non-renewable fertilizers; Structural breakpoint unit root test