Transmission Potential of Chikungunya Virus and Control Measures: The Case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus – the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country – with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North–Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117–278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%–76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8–6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector–borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high

Aflibercept in clinical practice; visual acuity, injection numbers and adherence to treatment, for diabetic macular oedema in 21 UK hospitals over 3 years

Introduction: Randomised controlled trials provide evidence that a treatment works. Real world evidence is required to assess if proven treatments are effective in practice. Method: Retrospective data collection on patients given aflibercept for diabetic macular oedema over 3 years from 21 UK hospitals: visual acuity (VA); Index of multiple deprivation score (IMD); injection numbers; protocols used, compared as a cohort and between sites. Results: Complete data: 1742 patients (from 2196 eligible) at 1 year, 860 (from 1270) at 2, 305 (from 506) at 3 years. The median VA improved from 65 to 71, 70, 70 (ETDRS letters) at 1, 2 and 3 years with 6, 9 and 12 injections, respectively. Loss to follow-up: 10% 1 year, 28.8% at 3. Centres varied: baseline: mean age 61-71 years (p < 0.0001); mean IMD score 15-37 (p < 0.0001); mean VA 49-68 (p < 0.0001). Only four centres provided a loading course of five injections at monthly intervals and one 6. This did not alter VA outcome at 1 year. Higher IMD was associated with younger age (p = 0.0023) and worse VA at baseline (p < 0.0001) not total number of injections or change in VA. Lower starting VA, higher IMD and older age were associated with lower adherence (p = 0.0010). Conclusions: The data showed significant variation between treatment centres for starting age, VA and IMD which influenced adherence and chances of good VA. Once treatment was started IMD did not alter likelihood of improvement. Loading dose intensity did not alter outcome at one year

Study protocol on prevalence of non-exudative macular neovascularisation and its contribution to prediction of exudation in fellow eyes with unilateral exudative AMD (EYE-NEON)

Abstract Purpose Fellow eyes of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) are at risk of developing macular neovascularisation (MNV). These eyes may first develop subclinical non-exudative MNV (neMNV) before they leak to form exudative MNV (eMNV). The EYE NEON study is a 2-year study aimed at estimating the prevalence and incidence of neMNV and evaluating its role as a predictor for conversion to neovascular AMD. Methods EYE NEON is a multicentre study that will run in retinal clinics across 25 National Health Service with the aim to recruit 800 patients with new onset nAMD in the first eye. The fellow-eye with no evidence of nAMD at baseline will be the study eye. All study eyes will have OCT and OCTA done at first and second year following first anti-VEGF treatment to the first eye (non-study eye), with new onset nAMD. We will estimate the prevalence and incidence of neMNV over 2 years, rate of conversion from neMNV to eMNV and numbers initiated on treatment for neovascular AMD in the study eye will be reported. Predictive models of conversion including neMNV with other demographic and imaging parameters will be developed. Conclusion The study design with proposed target sample size is sufficient to evaluate the retinal imaging characteristics of the study eyes with and without neMNV and develop predictive models to inform risk of conversion to nAMD. </jats:sec

Imaging in Lyme neuroborreliosis

Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB) is a tick-borne spirochetal infection with a broad spectrum of imaging pathology. For individuals who live in or have travelled to areas where ticks reside, LNB should be considered among differential diagnoses when clinical manifestations from the nervous system occur. Radiculitis, meningitis and facial palsy are commonly encountered, while peripheral neuropathy, myelitis, meningoencephalitis and cerebral vasculitis are rarer manifestations of LNB. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis and serology are key investigations in patient workup. The primary role of imaging is to rule out other reasons for the neurological symptoms. It is therefore important to know the diversity of possible imaging findings from the infection itself. There may be no imaging abnormality, or findings suggestive of neuritis, meningitis, myelitis, encephalitis or vasculitis. White matter lesions are not a prominent feature of LNB. Insight into LNB clinical presentation, laboratory test methods and spectrum of imaging pathology will aid in the multidisciplinary interaction that often is imperative to achieve an efficient patient workup and arrive at a correct diagnosis. This article can educate those engaged in imaging of the nervous system and serve as a comprehensive tool in clinical cases

The Collaborative Ocular Tuberculosis Study (COTS) Consensus (CON) Group Meeting Proceedings

An international, expert led consensus initiative was set up by the Collaborative Ocular Tuberculosis Study (COTS) group to develop systematic, evidence, and experience-based recommendations for the treatment of ocular TB using a modified Delphi technique process. In the first round of Delphi, the group identified clinical scenarios pertinent to ocular TB based on five clinical phenotypes (anterior uveitis, intermediate uveitis, choroiditis, retinal vasculitis, and panuveitis). Using an interactive online questionnaires, guided by background knowledge from published literature, 486 consensus statements for initiating ATT were generated and deliberated amongst 81 global uveitis experts. The median score of five was considered reaching consensus for initiating ATT. The median score of four was tabled for deliberation through Delphi round 2 in a face-to-face meeting. This report describes the methodology adopted and followed through the consensus process, which help elucidate the guidelines for initiating ATT in patients with choroidal TB

Collaborative Ocular Tuberculosis Study Consensus Guidelines on the Management of Tubercular Uveitis—Report 1

An international, expert-led consensus initiative organized by the Collaborative Ocular Tuberculosis Study (COTS), along with the International Ocular Inflammation Society and the International Uveitis Study Group, systematically developed evidence- and experience-based recommendations for the treatment of tubercular choroiditis. The diagnosis and management of tubercular uveitis (TBU) pose a significant challenge. Current guidelines and literature are insufficient to guide physicians regarding the initiation of antitubercular therapy (ATT) in patients with TBU. An international expert steering subcommittee of the COTS group identified clinical questions and conducted a systematic review of the published literature on the use of ATT for tubercular choroiditis. Using an interactive online questionnaire, guided by background knowledge from published literature, 81 global experts (including ophthalmologists, pulmonologists, and infectious disease physicians) generated preliminary consensus statements for initiating ATT in tubercular choroiditis, using Oxford levels of medical evidence. In total, 162 statements were identified regarding when to initiate ATT in patients with tubercular serpiginous-like choroiditis, tuberculoma, and tubercular focal or multifocal choroiditis. The COTS group members met in November 2018 to refine these statements by a 2-step modified Delphi process. Seventy consensus statements addressed the initiation of ATT in the 3 subtypes of tubercular choroiditis, and in addition, 10 consensus statements were developed regarding the use of adjunctive therapy in tubercular choroiditis. Experts agreed on initiating ATT in tubercular choroiditis in the presence of positive results for any 1 of the positive immunologic tests along with radiologic features suggestive of tuberculosis. For tubercular serpiginous-like choroiditis and tuberculoma, positive results from even 1 positive immunologic test were considered sufficient to recommend ATT, even if there were no radiologic features suggestive of tuberculosis. Consensus guidelines were developed to guide the initiation of ATT in patients with tubercular choroiditis, based on the published literature, expert opinion, and practical experience, to bridge the gap between clinical need and available medical evidence