A Way from Renewable Energy Sources to Urban Sustainable Development: Empirical Evidences from Taichung City

Taiwan pursues economic growth, but the environment also faces major threats. How to balance economic growth and environmental maintenance has become a priority for sustainable development. This study analyzes this issue from a regional perspective. Taichung City is a scaled-down version of Taiwan's economic development. This case study will help to think about how the economy and the environment can achieve a win-win situation in the future. This study analyzes the economic effects of investments in solar systems and then analyzes the differences in CO2 emissions between electricity consumption and electricity sources. As a source of electricity needed to provide economic activities in Taichung, solar power systems will avoid the large-scale CO2 emissions generated by economic growth and achieve a win-win goal of economic growth and environmental maintenance, which will help to achieve the possibility of sustainable urban development. Keywords: Solar power, Investment, Economic growth, CO2 emissions, Sustainable urban development. JEL Classifications: C67, Q01, Q58, R58 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.722

Economic Growth, Oil Consumption and Import Intensity: Factor Decomposition of Imported Crude Oil Model Approach

Taiwan became a member of the WTO in 2002. Trade is the engine of growth in Taiwan, accounting for nearly 96.41% of GDP in 2016. Taiwan's economy is highly export-oriented. On the other hand, Taiwan depends on imports for near 98 percent of its energy consumption. This paper analyzes the changes in the intensity of crude oil imports between 1981 and 2016. This research sets several main topics: i) Estimating the imported crude oil intensity of final demand for a quantity analysis. ii) Measure of imported crude oil intensity of final demand. iii) Factor decomposition model for the imported crude oil intensity of final demand. iv) The study could provide an understanding of the properties and production technologies of various industries. The result shows that imported goods intensity is the largest in the crude oil and gas sector. Changes in imported crude oil intensity factors mainly from domestic production structure and final demand structure. Keywords: Economic growth, Imported Crude Oil intensity, Factor Decomposition JEL Classifications: C51, F14, Q4

The Application of Genetic Programming on the Stock Movement Forecasting System

The financial tsunami is a crisis that happened in 2007. It broke out in the United States, and then spread to the whole world. Taiwanese economy exhibited a negative growth of 7.53%, and the fluctuation is manifest in Taiwan stock index. It has been even dramatically losing 60%. Now, TAIEX has exceeded the level before the financial crisis. TAIEX closed at 10,383.94 on September 30, 2017. The establishment of the Stock Movement Forecasting System has become an important issue. This paper intends to demonstrate the application of an artificial intelligence system named GPLAB on the prediction of stock price movement in TWSE. GPLAB was built on biological evolutionary concept to realize fittest surviving rules in the natural selection process. This concept has been applied on the field of finance to build up forecasting models predicting future price movement within one day, one month and one season. The empirical results of this inter-discipline study has revealed this bio-financial hybrid system successfully predicted the stock price movement in a one-month forecasting range by 23% and 22% lower than the appointed benchmark during a random chosen period and a bear market period respectively. This empirical evidence suggests the market efficiency in TWSE is a semi-strong form market that stock price movement could be predicted with the analysis of historical data. This paper also further indicates the credibility of different technical and fundamental factors regarding to the prediction of future price movement in four different market situations including non-specific, static, bull and bear market period. At the end of this paper also revealed the strength and weakness of GPLAB as a financial forecasting tool. A short discussion concerning the system improvements regarding to the application of GPLAB is also included. Keywords: Stock Movement Forecasting, GP , Genetic Programming JEL Classifications: G1, C9, C

The Spillover Effects of Investment, Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption: An Application Mathematical Dynamic Industry-Related Models Approach

The economic growth pattern of investment has been proved in Asian countries, but it often falls into development bottleneck after the economy develops to a certain extent, especially in countries with lack of resources. One of the important reasons is the supply of energy and electricity. Establishing a sustainable development path requires thinking about economic development and environmental protection at the same time. This will face how to establish a balanced industrial structure and a stable electricity supply system, and investment in production equipment and R&D will be an indispensable factor. R & D investment and equipment investment contribute to economic growth. This study employs a dynamic industry-related model to estimate the economic spillover effect from both R&D investment and equipment investment. The present study attempts to measure (1) the difference in the investment multiplier of R&D investment and equipment investment, (2) the difference in the employment creation effect of investment R&D and equipment investment. Analysis of future industrial development strategies needs to consider energy and electricity consumption. This study will estimate (3) the impact of equipment investment and R&D investment on power consumption, and compare the differences between the two on the industry. This study uses mathematical dynamic industry-related models to estimate (1) ~ (3) and found that different investment methods will make the inter-industry economy have different spillover effects, and also show different demand in power consumption. Keywords: R&D investment; equipment investment; dynamic industry-related model; electricity consumption JEL Classifications: C60ï¼›O30ï¼›Q43ï¼›Q56 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.758

Factor Decomposition of Responsiveness of the Domestic Price to Crude Oil Price

Taiwan is an economy that is highly dependent on energy imports. Changes in oil price affect not only the cost of production but also economic growth. Since 2000, the crude oil price has risen and become an unstable factor for economic development. Due to the rapid rise of emerging economies and the competitive international economic environment, Taiwan is facing a moment of industrial restructuring. Energy-saving technologies and improved efficiency may play an important role. Taiwan must improve its industrial productivity and production technology to contribute to the alleviation of the global warming problem. From the crude oil intensity and the change in spillover effects of the crude oil price, we may detect whether industrial production efficiency and adaptability to energy and production technology improves or not. Based on the input-output table during the period of 1981 to 2016, the present study employs the industry-related price model and factor decomposition model to investigate the change in Taiwan's reliance on crude oil through the oil intensity index. Although efforts have been made to advance technology and improve energy dependence, the results of this study indicate that imported crude oil intensity and price responsiveness have actually increased and that the negative effects of the structural efficiency of production and domestic market demand have substantially increased imported crude oil intensity and price responsiveness, again emphasizing the vulnerability of Taiwan's production. Thus, the speed of improvement in energy technology is insufficient to keep up with economic growth. Keywords: Factor Decomposition, Crude Oil Price, Industry-related Price Model JEL Classifications :Q42,Q43,C

Rebound effect with energy efficiency determinants: a two-stage analysis of residential electricity consumption in Indonesia

This study aims to estimate the economy-wide rebound effect using the determinants of household energy demand in Indonesia. Identifying the size of the rebound effect is essential for the government's energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction programs. The estimation of the rebound effect uses a two-stage analysis with panel data of every province in Indonesia from 2002 to 2018. We employ the Input Demand Function of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis to measure the energy efficiency of residential aggregate in Indonesia. In the second stage, we adopt the dynamic panel data model to estimate the economy-wide rebound effect. The estimated dynamic panel data model reveals that the magnitudes of the short-run and long-run rebound effects were 87.2% and -45.5%, respectively. In other words, a 1% increase in household energy efficiency results in a reduction in energy consumption of 0.13% in the short term and 1.45% in the long term. Our research also discovers that a backfire rebound effect exists in provinces with high energy efficiency. Therefore, we prove to backfire claims that improving energy efficiency will increase energy use. Henceforth, energy efficiency programs in the household sector still need to be implemented, followed by increasing technological innovation and improving housing policy

Sources of Economic Growth and Changes in Energy Consumption: Empirical Evidence for Taiwan (2004-2016)

Since the 1990s, Taiwan has promoted the upgrading of industrial structure, and the financial crisis has brought about major economic shocks. After Taiwan became a WTO member in 2002, the total trade volume increased significantly under the trade liberalization economic system. The trade sector has become the main source of Taiwan's economic growth. As energy consumption expands with economic growth, the instability of international energy prices has become an important factor hindering Taiwan's future economic development. Taiwan's energy demand is over 99% dependent on imports, making Taiwan's economic growth and energy consumption really closely related. This study has found that the source of growth has transformed from domestic final demand effect and exports effect to technical coefficients effect and self-sufficiency Coefficients effect. The financial crisis has increased the “self-sufficiency” coefficient effect and the technical coefficient effect, and all other industries except the “agricultural sector” have shown significant growth. On the other hand, the source of energy consumption has changed after the financial crisis. This also confirms that Taiwan's economic growth is closely related to energy consumption, indicating that energy shortage has indeed had an important impact on Taiwan's economic development. Keywords: source of economic growth, energy consumption, technical coefficient JEL Classifications: Q43, C6, E2, E210 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.745

Investment, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: An Analysis on the Strategy of Industry Development

This study employs a Dynamic Environmental Industry-related Model to estimate the economic spillover effect and the CO2 emissions from both R&D of government and private equipment investment. We classify the industries into four subgroups which are the high economic effect with high emission coefficient, low economic effect with high emission coefficient, low economic effect with low emission coefficient and high economic effect with low emission coefficient. The present study attempts to measure the CO2 emission of both governmental R&D and private equipment investment, and further to propose the direction of Taiwan's industrial development. Keywords: Investment, CO2 Emission Coefficient, Dynamic Environmental Industry-related Model JEL Classifications: C6, Q50, Q5

ICT, carbon emissions, climate change, and energy demand nexus: the potential benefit of digitalization in Taiwan

The global rise in energy consumption makes managing energy demands a priority. Here, the potential of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in controlling energy consumption is still debated. Within this context, the main objective of the current study is to measure the impact of ICT, its potential benefit, and environmental factors on household electricity demand in Taiwan. A panel of data from 20 cities in Taiwan was collected during the period 2004-2018. We adopted PMG estimation and applied the DH-causality test for analysis. The estimation results show that ICT, carbon emissions, and climate change will drive household electricity demand in Taiwan in the long term. However, ICT has a higher potential to reduce electricity demand in the short-term period. In addition, the results of the causality test reveal a two-way interrelationship between ICT and electricity demand. Our study also found that climate change indirectly affects the use of electricity through household appliances. We also presented several policy implications at the end of this paper

Environmental Tax Reform, R&D Subsidies and CO2 Emissions: View Double Dividend Hypothesis

This study investigated whether environmental taxes achieve the double dividend of coexistence of economic growth and environmental protection. The research method used dynamic industrial relations models to estimate the influence of environmental taxes influence on the economy and environment. The goal was to conduct an objective analysis with scientific data. The conclusions provide a clue indicating that environmental taxes could only be used to facilitate short-term coexistence between economic growth and environmental protection. Once entering the mid-term and long term, the lack of innovation and technical progress would eventually cause economic development and environmental protection to diverge, which is why studies are yet to reach a consensus. The results suggest that although using environmental taxes to promote economic development and environmental protection can achieve the double dividend in the short term, in the midterm, the first dividend disappears unless a solution for improved energy efficiency and technical innovation can be determined immediately. Furthermore, to sustain its economic development and environmental protection efforts, Taiwan must first optimize its industrial structure, which can only be achieved through advanced research and development. Keywords: Environmental Tax Reform, R&D Subsidies, CO2 Emissions, Double Dividend Hypothesis JEL Classifications: C67, D57, Q50, Q5