Domestic Value Added and Employment Generated by Chinese Exports: A Quantitative Estimation

We develop an input-output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affect the country’s total domestic value added (DVA) and employment for 1995 and 2002. Total DVA generated by exports is obtained by subtracting all direct and indirect imported intermediate goods from the gross value of exports, and total employment is obtained by adding all direct and indirect employment generated by exports. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input-output table with separate input-output and employment-output coefficients for processing and non-processing exports. In 2002 (1995), for every US$1,000 dollar of Chinese exports, DVA and employment are estimated to be US$466 (US$545) and 0.242 (0.375) person-year, respectively.Input-output tables, Chinese exports, employment, domestic value added

Association of healthy lifestyle with incident cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive and normotensive Chinese adults

Background: Whether lifestyle improvement benefits in reducing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) events extend to hypertensive patients and whether these benefits differ between hypertensive and normotensive individuals is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the associations of an overall healthy lifestyle with the subsequent development of CVD among participants with hypertension and normotension. Methods: Using data from the Suzhou subcohort of the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 51,929 participants, this study defined five healthy lifestyle factors as nonsmoking or quitting for reasons other than illness; nonexcessive alcohol intake; relatively higher physical activity level; a relatively healthy diet; and having a standard waist circumference and body mass index. We estimated the associations of these lifestyle factors with CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and ischemic stroke (IS). Results: During a follow-up of 10.1 years, this study documented 6,151 CVD incidence events, 1,304 IHD incidence events, and 2,243 IS incidence events. Compared to those with 0–1 healthy lifestyle factors, HRs for those with 4–5 healthy factors were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.81) for CVD, 0.56 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.75) for IHD, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.51, 0.79) for IS among hypertensive participants. However, we did not observe this association among normotensive participants. Stratified analyses showed that the association between a healthy lifestyle and IHD risk was stronger among younger participants, and the association with IS risk was stronger among hypertensive individuals with lower household incomes. Conclusion: Adherence to a healthy lifestyle pattern is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive patients, but this benefit is not as pronounced among normotensive patients

Association between physical activity and cancer risk among Chinese adults: a 10-year prospective study

Background: In China, the quantity of physical activity differs from that in Western countries. Substantial uncertainty remains about the relevance of physical activity for cancer subtypes among Chinese adults. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the association between total daily physical activity and the incidence of common types of cancer. Methods: A total of 53,269 participants aged 30–79 years were derived from the Wuzhong subcohort of the China Kadoorie Biobank study during 2004–2008. We included 52,938 cancer-free participants in the final analysis. Incident cancers were identified through linkage with the health insurance system and death registries. Cox proportional hazard models were introduced to assess the associations of total daily physical activity with the incidence of 6 common types of cancer. Results: During a follow-up of 10.1 years, 3,674 cases of cancer were identified, including 794 (21.6%) from stomach cancer, 722 (19.7%) from lung cancer, 458 (12.5%) from colorectal cancer, 338 (9.2%) from liver cancer, 250 (6.8%) from breast cancer, and 231 (6.3%) from oesophageal cancer. Compared to the participants in the lowest quartile of physical activity levels, those in the highest quartile had an 11% lower risk for total cancer incidence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81–0.99), 25% lower risk for lung cancer incidence (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.60–0.94), and 26% lower risk for colorectal cancer incidence (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55–1.00). There were significant interactions of physical activity with sex and smoking on total cancer (both P for interaction  Conclusions: Higher physical activity levels are associated with a reduced risk of total, lung, and colorectal cancer

Domestic Value Added and Employment Generated by Chinese Exports: A Quantitative Estimation

We develop an input-output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affect the country’s total domestic value added (DVA) and employment for 1995 and 2002. Total DVA generated by exports is obtained by subtracting all direct and indirect imported intermediate goods from the gross value of exports, and total employment is obtained by adding all direct and indirect employment generated by exports. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input-output table with separate input-output and employment-output coefficients for processing and non-processing exports. In 2002 (1995), for every US$1,000 dollar of Chinese exports, DVA and employment are estimated to be US$466 (US$545) and 0.242 (0.375) person-year, respectively

Methods for Approximating the Shadow Price of Water in China

Using the input-output tables for water conservancy for the nine major river basins in China in combination with linear programming techniques, we calculate the shadow prices of industrial water and productive water in the nine river basins. After the results are subjected to factor analysis, the shadow prices of industrial water and productive water are obtained for each Chinese province in 1999. Then, nonlinear models for calculating the shadow price of water in specific counties are given. They appear to be valuable tools for setting reasonable water prices and establishing a market for water in China.Water resources, shadow price, input-output model, linear programming, nonlinear models,

An Extended Input-Output Model on Education and the Shortfall of Human Capital in China

This paper proposes an extended input-output model on education. Production is divided into two subsystems, the education sector and the non-education sector. The education sector is reflected by both 'monetary flows' and 'student flows.' Second, static and dynamic extended input-output models, including human capital production and allocation, are built. Third, the 1999 Chinese extended input-output table on education is compiled. Based on this table, the relation between human capital production and national economic development is analyzed. In particular, it is found that too few university graduates are 'produced', while a surplus of young people with only primary-school education go into industry.Extended input-output model with assets, human capital, education,

Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004

China has a population of 1.3 billion and grain accordingly plays a crucial role in the Chinese economy. In this paper we suggest predicting grain output mainly by factor inputs and asset holding, and present a Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA). The key elements of SIPA are an extended input-output model with assets, nonlinear variable coefficient forecasting equations, and using the minimum sum of the absolute values. Since 1980 we have used the approach to predict the yearly national grain output of China. The prediction lead time is more than half a year. The bumper, average, and poor harvests are accurately predicted every year. The average error rate over the period 1980-2004 is 1.9%.Grain output prediction, Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA), extended input-output model with assets, nonlinear forecasting,

A Method to Optimize Gross Fixed Capital Investments for Water Conservancy in China

A major concern of policymakers and researchers in China is finding an appropriate size of the gross fixed capital investments for water conservancy (GFCIWC). This paper determines the optimal proportion of GFCIWC to GDP. Unlike engineering economics, we investigate the benefits of GFCIWC at a macro-economic level, using the 1999 input-output table extended for water conservancy. Different kinds of impacts are induced by GFCIWC. These include forward benefits (flood control, water supply, irrigation, hydroelectric power, soil and water conservation, environmental protection) and backward benefits for GDP; negative social effects; and opportunity costs of GFCIWC. The results are put into a set of regression equations between total benefits of GFCIWC and the proportion of GFCIWC to GDP, from which the optimal proportion - or a desirable range - can be determined. The results may provide policymakers with guidelines for allocating investments.Water conservancy, gross fixed capital investments, input-output analysis, China,