Spatial Dependence in International Office Markets

This paper investigates spatial dependence in the prices of office buildings in Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York City, Paris, and Tokyo for 2007 to 2013. Compared to prior literature, we find low economic impact from spatial dependence in all six markets, and spatial and spatial-temporal dependence do not moderate the effects of hedonic characteristics statistically or economically. However, investor and seller types as well as neighborhood location have a significant impact on the economic and statistical significance of the spatial and spatial-temporal parameters. Spatial office price indices for London, Paris and Tokyo decline somewhat more than do hedonic indices during the crisis

The London commercial property price index

Of the top ten global commercial property markets, London's has had the highest transaction turnover for the past decade according to Real Capital Analytics. Its prime real estate is part of every major European and US institutional investor's portfolio and London's market has the most developed commercial property derivatives market outside of the US. Yet, no transaction-based index exists for the London office market. The aim of this study is to fill that gap. Using a comprehensive dataset of transactions from Estates Gazette interactive and Real Capital Analytics, this paper analyzes different repeat-sales estimation strategies and noise filters to produce a quarterly index series from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2011. In addition, the index series is measured against IPD's London capital valuation series and the MIT Center for Real Estate New York office market repeat sales index series. Results show that the market turn of the first financial crisis is clearly visible in the transactions-based indices, and that this index leads the capital valuation series by about a year. London's office market seems to have been affected by the crisis considerably earlier than New York's market and correlations between the two markets are low