Pakistan’s Agricultural Development since Independence: Intertemporal Trends and Explanations

The main objective of this paper has been to review Pakistan’s historical experience in agricultural development in terms of growth, income distribution, and rural poverty. While the long-term growth rates between 1949-50 and 1994-95 were satisfactory, the variations around the average have been rather too large over the various decades. Beginning with a stagnating sector of the 1950s, agriculture witnessed record growth rates during the Sixties. This was followed by the lowest growth rates of the early Seventies, and acceleration in the second half of the Seventies. The experience since 1979-80 has been mixed, but the growth rates have been rather low through the Eighties and the Nineties. The trends in income distribution and poverty varied directly in relation to the agricultural growth rates, especially when they were in excess of the threshold level of 4.5–5.0 percent per annum. In general, a growth rate of 5.0 percent or higher has induced positive changes in income distribution and poverty. In view of this positive association, the pursuit of a high growth policy in agriculture should guide Pakistan’s future development strategy. The efficiency of resource use, a greater dependence on modern technologies, and a minimisation of government intervention in the market mechanism are the essential pillars of the high growth strategy.

Some Non-price Explanatory Variables in Fertiliser Demand: The Case of Irrigated Pakistan

It follows from the experience of World economies that rising and balanced use of fertilisers is the key factor in agricultural productivity [FAO (1995); SFS and STI (1996); Habib-ur-Rehman (1982) and Pinstrup-Anderson (1976)]. In the case of Pakistan the stepped up fertiliser use has been argued to be incritable to realise existing untapped yield potential of major crops [Johnston and Kilby (1975)] and to induce yield increasing technological change in future [John Mellor Associates and Asianics Agro-Dev. International (1993)]. Although proper malnutrition involves the use of primary, secondary and micro-nutrients, Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus and Potassium (K) or NPK is generally considered to be sufficient to harvest normal crop yields [FAO and IFA (1999)]. Given this situation, this paper looks at various factors that determine fertiliser use in Pakistan. Although price of fertiliser is a critical factor in this respect [Schultz (1965) and Johnston and Cownie (1969)], only non-price factors are considered in this paper due to limitations of data. Apart from this introductory section, the paper comprises of three more sections. The following Section 2 explains the data and the empirical model. Section 3 presents the results. Section 4 summarises the main findings along with their policy implications.

Growth of Livestock Production in Pakistan: An Analysis

Agriculture is the backbone and single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy as its contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded 25.3 percent during 1997-98. Crops, livestock, fishing and forestry sub-sectors being its main components, only crop and livestock sub-sectors are of critical importance. They accounted for 59.6 and 36.2 percent of the sector’s output respectively. Because of the ongoing process of structural transformation, agriculture’s share in the national economy is shrinking. From 39 percent of GDP in 1969-70 it has fallen to its current levels [Pakistan (1999a)]. The livestock sub-sector however has not followed suit. It has risen from 27.3 percent in 1969-70 to 36.2 percent in 1997-98. This trend in fact would be more pronounced if the national accounts did not underestimate the sub-sector’s components such as farm yard manure, dung cakes for household fuels and animal draft power. Apart from its contributions to national income, the livestock sub-sector is an active employer of thousands of landless poor and subsistence and semi-subsistence small farming families. Being a household activity, women are a special beneficiary of employment in the sub-sector. It is a major source of nourishment like milk, butter oil, eggs and meat and adds immensely to the health, nutrition and well being of rural as well as urban people. While animal fat and butter oil supplies are helpful in containing vegetable oil imports, many products of livestock origin such as wool and wool products, leather and leather made-ups and animal casings are exported and contribute significantly to hard earned foreign exchange [Ahmad, Ahmad and Chaudhry (1996)]. It follows from the above that the livestock sub-sector is likely to maintain its position as the dominant sub-sector of Pakistan’s agricultural sector or even that of the national economy for quite sometime in the future. Despite the rising and critical importance of the sub-sector, there, however, is no corresponding emphasis on analysing its achievements, problems and future prospects and likely policies to brighten these up. In view of this limitation, the present paper makes a limited attempt to study the growth process of the livestock sub-sector.

Pakistan’s Agricultural Development since Independence: Intertemporal Trends and Explanations

The main objective of this paper has been to review Pakistan’s historical experience in agricultural development in terms of growth, income distribution, and rural poverty. While the long-term growth rates between 1949-50 and 1994-95 were satisfactory, the variations around the average have been rather too large over the various decades. Beginning with a stagnating sector of the 1950s, agriculture witnessed record growth rates during the Sixties. This was followed by the lowest growth rates of the early Seventies, and acceleration in the second half of the Seventies. The experience since 1979-80 has been mixed, but the growth rates have been rather low through the Eighties and the Nineties. The trends in income distribution and poverty varied directly in relation to the agricultural growth rates, especially when they were in excess of the threshold level of 4.5–5.0 percent per annum. In general, a growth rate of 5.0 percent or higher has induced positive changes in income distribution and poverty. In view of this positive association, the pursuit of a high growth policy in agriculture should guide Pakistan’s future development strategy. The efficiency of resource use, a greater dependence on modern technologies, and a minimisation of government intervention in the market mechanism are the essential pillars of the high growth strategy

Growth of Output and Productivity in Pakistan’s Agriculture: Trends, Sources, and Policy Implications

The paper aims to review the growth performance of Pakistan’s agriculture from 1950 to 1995. The long-term growth rate of agriculture, although respectable, has exhibited considerable yearly fluctuations even between decades. The period of the fifties and early seventies lacked any growth. Accelerating and high growth rates marked the decade of the sixties but the performance has not been satisfactory since 1979-80 and average growth rates have barely exceeded the population growth rate, with widespread implications for growth of national economy, food security, and social welfare of the masses. Area, modern inputs, and technology have been the major determinants of growth but prices were equally important because of their incentive and disincentive effects. The agriculture price policies adopted during the 1980s are known to have had a negative effect on the development and use of technology in agriculture. In order to boost agricultural productivity, a change in price policy is needed to ensure incentive prices. This could be done by setting agricultural commodity prices at par with corresponding import and export parity prices. A higher investment in research and development can hardly be overemphasised. There is an urgent need to remove the bottlenecks in agricultural input markets since these markets represent the typical monopoly position. To break up the monopoly of registered dealers and to promote competition, free sales in the open market by interested parties and individuals may be allowed.

Wheat Productivity, Efficiency, and Sustainability: A Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis

The agriculture sector plays a crucial role in the overall development of the country. The sector shares about 24 percent of the GDP and employs about 44 percent of the workforce in the country. Crops sub-sector is the major contributor towards agriculture, sharing more than 53 percent of the value-added. Wheat, being the staple food of Pakistanis, carries immense importance: it contributes about 12 percent of sector value-added, is sown on about 37 percent of the total cropped area, and shares 80 percent in consumption of food grains, while its share in food grain production is around 70 percent. As primary diet, wheat alone shares about 50 percent of the total calories’ and proteins intake in Pakistan, and contributes about 8 percent of the total fat consumed [FAO (Various Issues]. Consequently, overall dietary well being of our people especially the urban and rural poor is largely dependent on the performance of wheat economy. Despite serious efforts made by the wheat breeders in developing new highyielding varieties during the past three decades, wheat production in Pakistan remained short of demand and thus import has been the only alternative to fill the gap. The present wheat requirement of the country is more than 20 million tonnes. It has been estimated that by the year 2020 wheat import would rise up to 15 million tones costing 2 billion US dollars [PARC (1996)]. The situation could worsen further if Pakistan fails to achieve a higher level of growth rate in wheat production and sustain it.

Wheat Productivity, Efficiency, and Sustainability: A Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis

This paper uses the farm-level survey data to estimate the stochastic frontier production function incorporating inefficiency effects. Sufficient evidence of positive relationship between wheat productivity and higher and balanced use of fertiliser nutrients was present. The productivity showed an inverse relationship with the proportionate farm area allocated to rice production and illustrated no association with the proportion of farm area under cotton. The average technical efficiency at wheat farms was about 68 percent. An inverse relationship was observed between technical efficiency and farm size. The farmers with greater access to credit and located closer to the markets were found more efficient. The small farmers are not only producing at a lower level but are also operating relatively farther from the production frontier. The results also revealed that wheat growers in Punjab are comparatively more efficient than their counterparts in Sindh and NWFP.stochastic frontier production function; technical efficiency; small farmer; Pakistan; productivity

Some Non-price Explanatory Variables in Fertiliser Demand: The Case of Irrigated Pakistan

It follows from the experience of World economies that rising and balanced use of fertilisers is the key factor in agricultural productivity [FAO (1995); SFS and STI (1996); Habib-ur-Rehman (1982) and Pinstrup-Anderson (1976)]. In the case of Pakistan the stepped up fertiliser use has been argued to be incritable to realise existing untapped yield potential of major crops [Johnston and Kilby (1975)] and to induce yield increasing technological change in future [John Mellor Associates and Asianics Agro-Dev. International (1993)]. Although proper malnutrition involves the use of primary, secondary and micro-nutrients, Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus and Potassium (K) or NPK is generally considered to be sufficient to harvest normal crop yields [FAO and IFA (1999)]. Given this situation, this paper looks at various factors that determine fertiliser use in Pakistan. Although price of fertiliser is a critical factor in this respect [Schultz (1965) and Johnston and Cownie (1969)], only non-price factors are considered in this paper due to limitations of data. Apart from this introductory section, the paper comprises of three more sections. The following Section 2 explains the data and the empirical model. Section 3 presents the results. Section 4 summarises the main findings along with their policy implications