Epidemic Thresholds with External Agents

We study the effect of external infection sources on phase transitions in epidemic processes. In particular, we consider an epidemic spreading on a network via the SIS/SIR dynamics, which in addition is aided by external agents - sources unconstrained by the graph, but possessing a limited infection rate or virulence. Such a model captures many existing models of externally aided epidemics, and finds use in many settings - epidemiology, marketing and advertising, network robustness, etc. We provide a detailed characterization of the impact of external agents on epidemic thresholds. In particular, for the SIS model, we show that any external infection strategy with constant virulence either fails to significantly affect the lifetime of an epidemic, or at best, sustains the epidemic for a lifetime which is polynomial in the number of nodes. On the other hand, a random external-infection strategy, with rate increasing linearly in the number of infected nodes, succeeds under some conditions to sustain an exponential epidemic lifetime. We obtain similar sharp thresholds for the SIR model, and discuss the relevance of our results in a variety of settings.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures (to appear in INFOCOM 2014

Generalized Opinion Dynamics from Local Optimization Rules

We study generalizations of the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model for opinion dynamics, incorporating features and parameters that are natural components of observed social systems. The first generalization is one where the strength of influence depends on the distance of the agents' opinions. Under this setup, we identify conditions under which the opinions converge in finite time, and provide a qualitative characterization of the equilibrium. We interpret the HK model opinion update rule as a quadratic cost-minimization rule. This enables a second generalization: a family of update rules which possess different equilibrium properties. Subsequently, we investigate models in which a external force can behave strategically to modulate/influence user updates. We consider cases where this external force can introduce additional agents and cases where they can modify the cost structures for other agents. We describe and analyze some strategies through which such modulation may be possible in an order-optimal manner. Our simulations demonstrate that generalized dynamics differ qualitatively and quantitatively from traditional HK dynamics.Comment: 20 pages, under revie

Finite Time Bounds for Stochastic Bounded Confidence Dynamics

In this era of fast and large-scale opinion formation, a mathematical understanding of opinion evolution, a.k.a. opinion dynamics, acquires importance. Linear graph-based dynamics and bounded confidence dynamics are the two popular models for opinion dynamics in social networks. Stochastic bounded confidence (SBC) opinion dynamics was proposed as a general framework that incorporates both these dynamics as special cases and also captures the inherent stochasticity and noise (errors) in real-life social exchanges. Although SBC dynamics is quite general and realistic, its analysis is more challenging. This is because SBC dynamics is nonlinear and stochastic, and belongs to the class of Markov processes that have asymptotically zero drift and unbounded jumps. The asymptotic behavior of SBC dynamics was characterized in prior works. However, they do not shed light on its finite-time behavior, which is often of interest in practice. We take a stride in this direction by analyzing the finite-time behavior of a two-agent system and a bistar graph, which are crucial to the understanding of general multi-agent dynamics. In particular, we show that the opinion difference between the two agents is well-concentrated around zero under the conditions that lead to asymptotic stability of the SBC dynamics.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper appeared in the proceedings of COMmunication Systems & NETworkS (COMSNETS) 2022. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2112.0437