Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios

Long-run regression models using the trailing earnings over price ratio to predict future returns suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988, 2001) work quite well. However, in this note we show that this variable might result in a downward biased proxy for expected future returns. Instead we suggest using a moving average of the log of 1 plus the earnings price ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to existing ones.Earnings yield, Stock Return, Forecasting

Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both long-run dependent and independent variables, we demonstrate a version of Engle's (1974) conjecture that asymptotically correct standard errors can be computed by multiplying the ordinary least squares standard errors by the square root of 2/3 times the length of the forecast horizon. We generalize Stambaugh's (1999) bias formula to the long-run regression model proposed in this paper. In addition, we find, that for persistent predictive variables, the OLS estimator in our regression model is more efficient than the estimator in the predictive regressions suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Hodrick (1992). Application of our method shows thatthe long-run earnings yield significantly predicts up to 69% of the variation in the 10-year S&P 500 real return, and up to 49% of long-run bond returns.Forecasting, stock returns, spectral analysis, Hansen-Hodrick standard errors

The Nordic maintenance care program: what are the indications for maintenance care in patients with low back pain? A survey of the members of the Danish Chiropractors' Association

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maintenance care (MC) is relatively commonly used among chiropractors. However, factual information is needed on its indications for use.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>This study had two objectives: 1) to describe which role patients' past history and treatment outcome play in chiropractors' decision to use MC in patients with low back pain, 2) to investigate if the chiropractors' clinical/educational background has an effect on the frequency of using MC and their indications for use of MC.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>An anonymous questionnaire was sent to all 413 chiropractors practising in Denmark. Its main part consisted of 3 sets of 4 questions relating to one basic case of low back pain. For each case, the chiropractors were asked if they would use MC as they self-defined the term (no/perhaps/yes). There were questions also on gender, age, educational and clinical background, and on the number of MC patients seen by these chiropractors. Their decision to recommend MC was reported. Associations between the demographic variables and 1) the frequency of MC-use and 2) their indications for use of MC were tested through multivariate analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The response rate was 72%. Non-indications for MC were: 1) a good outcome combined with no previous events, or 2) a past history of LBP and gradual worsening with treatment. Indications for MC were a good outcome combined with a previous history of low back pain between once a month and once a year. The mean proportion of MC patients per week were 22% (SD 19), ranging from 0% to 100%. The use of MC was highest among experienced chiropractors, those who were educated in North America, and clinic owners. However, in Denmark most chiropractors graduated before 1999, are educated abroad, whereas most chiropractors thereafter are educated in Denmark. Therefore, we cannot conclude whether this difference relates to education or years of experience. There were no associations detected between demographic variables and the indications for MC.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is relatively high consensus on when MC should and should not be used. A history of prior low back pain combined with a positive response to treatment encourages the use of MC, whereas no previous history of back pain or a worsening of symptoms discourages the use of MC. There seems to be a difference in the proportional use of MC between chiropractors with more experience educated in North America and those with less experience educated in Denmark.</p

A comprehensive evaluation of colonic mucosal isolates of Sutterella wadsworthensis from inflammatory bowel disease

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Insulin degludec improves long-term glycaemic control similarly to insulin glargine but with fewer hypoglycaemic episodes in patients with advanced type 2 diabetes on basal-bolus insulin therapy.

The aim of the present study was to compare the long-term safety and efficacy of insulin degludec with those of insulin glargine in patients with advanced type 2 diabetes (T2D) over 78 weeks (the 52-week main trial and a 26-week extension). Patients were randomized to once-daily insulin degludec or insulin glargine, with mealtime insulin aspart ± metformin ± pioglitazone, and titrated to pre-breakfast plasma glucose values of 3.9-4.9 mmol/l (70-88 mg/dl). After 78 weeks, the overall rate of hypoglycaemia was 24% lower (p = 0.011) and the rate of nocturnal hypoglycaemia was 31% lower (p = 0.016) with insulin degludec in the extension trial set, while both groups of patients achieved similar glycaemic control. Rates of adverse events and total insulin doses were similar for both groups in the safety analysis set. During 18 months of treatment, insulin degludec + mealtime insulin aspart ± oral antidiabetic drugs in patients with T2D improves glycaemic control similarly, but confers lower risks of overall and nocturnal hypoglycaemia than with insulin glargine treatment

Experimental Airborne Transmission of Porcine Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome

The objective of these studies was to investigate if porcine postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) could be induced in healthy pigs following contact with air from pigs with clinical signs of PMWS. The pigs were housed in different units. Either 31 (study I) or 25 (study II) pigs with clinical symptoms of PMWS from a PMWS-affected herd and 25 healthy pigs from a PMWS-free, but PCV2-positive, herd were housed in unit A. Fifty pigs from a PMWS-free herd were housed in unit B, which were connected by pipes to unit A. In unit C, 30 pigs from a PMWS-free herd were housed as controls. In study II, the pigs in units A and B from the PMWS-free herd developed clinical signs of PMWS 2-3 weeks after arrival. PMWS was confirmed at necropsy and the diseased pigs had increased PCV2 load and increased antibody titers against PCV2 in serum that coincided with the development of clinical signs typical of PMWS. Sequence analysis revealed that the PCV2 isolate belonged to genotype 2b. In conclusion, the present study showed that PMWS can be induced in pigs from a PMWS-free herd by airborne contact with pigs from a PMWS-affected herd