India Transformed? Insights from the Firm Level 1988-2005

Using firm-level data this paper analyzes, the transformation of India's economic structure following the implementation of economic reforms. The focus of the study is on publicly-listed and unlisted firms from across a wide spectrum of manufacturing and services industries and ownership structures such as state-owned firms, business groups, private and foreign firms. Detailed balance sheet and ownership information permit an investigation of a range of variables such as sales, profitability, and assets. Here we analyze firm characteristics shown by industry before and after liberalization and investigate how industrial concentration, the number, and size of firms of the ownership type evolved between 1988 and 2005. We find great dynamism displayed by foreign and private firms as reflected in the growth in their numbers, assets, sales and profits. Yet, closer scrutiny reveals no dramatic transformation in the wake of liberalization. The story rather is one of an economy still dominated by the incumbents (state-owned firms) and to a lesser extent, traditional private firms (firms incorporated before 1985). Sectors dominated by state-owned and traditional private firms before 1988-1990, with assets, sales and profits representing shares higher than 50%, generally remained so in 2005. The exception to this broad pattern is the growing importance of new and large private firms in the services sector. Rates of return also have remained stable over time and show low dispersion across sectors and across ownership groups within sectors.

Capital Account Liberalization, Risk Sharing and Asset Prices

In the month that the capital account is liberalized, all publicly traded firms experience a 7 percent stock price revaluation. Firms whose shares become eligible for purchase by foreigners experience and additional revaluation that is directly proportional to their firm specific reduction in aggregate risk -- the covariance of the typical firm's stock return with the local market is on average 30 times larger than its covariance with the world market. The statistical significance of this proportionality persists after controlling for the firm-specific effects of liberalization on expected future profits in this sample of of 411 firms from 11 countries. These findings suggest that capital account liberalization facilitates risk sharing.

Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

When countries liberalize their stock markets, firms that become eligible for purchase by foreigners (investible), experience an average stock price revaluation of 10.4 percent. Since the covariance of the median investible firm's stock return with the local market is 30 times larger than its covariance with the world market, liberalization reduces the systematic risk associated with holding investible securities. Consistent with this fact: 1) the average effect of the reduction in systematic risk is 3.4 percentage points, or roughly one third of the total effect; and 2) variation in the firm-specific response is directly proportional to the firm-specific change in systematic risk. The statistical significance of this proportionality persists after controlling for changes in expected future profits and index inclusion criteria such as size and liquidity.

Firm-Specific Information and the Efficiency of Investment

We use a new firm-level dataset to examine the efficiency of investment in emerging economies. In the three-year period following stock market liberalizations, the growth rate of the typical firm's capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by an average of 5.4 percentage points. Cross-sectional changes in investment are significantly correlated with the signals about fundamentals embedded in the stock price changes that occur upon liberalization. Panel data estimations show that a 1-percentage point increase in a firm's expected future sales growth predicts a 4.1-percentage point increase in its investment; country-specific changes in the cost of capital predict a 2.3-percentage point increase in investment; firm-specific changes in risk premia do not affect investment.

Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?

In the year that capital-poor countries open their stock markets to foreign investors, the growth rate of their typical firm's capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by 4.1 percentage points. In each of the next three years the average growth rate of the capital stock for the 369 firms in the sample exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by 6.1 percentage points. However, there is no evidence that differences in the liberalization-induced changes in the cost of capital or investment opportunities drive the cross-sectional variation in the post-liberalization investment increases.

Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

When countries liberalize their stock markets, firms that become eligible for foreign purchase (investible), experience an average stock price revaluation of 15.1 percent. Since the historical covariance of the average investible firm’s stock return with the local market is roughly 200 times larger than its historical covariance with the world market, liberalization reduces the systematic risk associated with holding investible securities. Consistent with this fact: (1) the average effect of the reduction in systematic risk is 6.8 percentage points, or roughly two fifths of the total revaluation; and (2) the firm-specific revaluations are directly proportional to the firm-specific changes in systematic risk

Does Liberalization Promote Competition?

Using firm-level data from India, this paper investigates the distributional effects of deregulation on firm size and profitability. The data suggest that average firm size declines significantly in industries that deregulated entry. Firm entry leads occurs from the left hand tail of the size distribution with more small firms entering the market while the largest incumbent firms get significantly bigger following deregulation. Quantile regressions show that the shift in the distribution of firm size is non-linear with average firm size increasing till around the 15th percentile, and then getting significantly smaller till the 90th percentile while the largest percentile (95%) gets significantly bigger over the sample period. The marginal entry of small firms is consistent with an increase in competition following entry deregulation. Consistent with a decline in monopoly power, the Herfindahl index of firm sales also shows a significant decline. While summary statistics suggest a decline in average firm profits, quantile regressions show significant non-linearity and a heterogeneous impact of deregulation on profitability

Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

When countries liberalize their stock markets, firms that become eligible for foreign purchase (investible), experience an average stock price revaluation of 15.1 percent. Since the historical covariance of the average investible firm’s stock return with the local market is roughly 200 times larger than its historical covariance with the world market, liberalization reduces the systematic risk associated with holding investible securities. Consistent with this fact: (1) the average effect of the reduction in systematic risk is 6.8 percentage points, or roughly two fifths of the total revaluation; and (2) the firm-specific revaluations are directly proportional to the firm-specific changes in systematic risk

Firm-Specific Information and the Efficiency of Investment

We use a new firm-level dataset to examine the efficiency of investment in emerging economies. In the three-year period following stock market liberalizations, the growth rate of the typical firm’s capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by an average of 5.4 percentage points. Cross-sectional changes in investment are significantly correlated with the signals about fundamentals embedded in the stock price changes that occur upon liberalization. Panel data estimations show that a 1-percentage point increase in a firm’s expected future sales growth predicts a 4.1-percentage point increase in its investment; country-specific changes in the cost of capital predict a 2.3-percentage point increase in investment; firm-specific changes in risk premia do not affect investment

Foreign Ownership and Firm Performance: Emerging-Market Acquisitions in the United States

This paper examines the recent upsurge in foreign acquisitions of U.S. firms, specifically focusing on acquisitions made by firms located in emerging markets. Neoclassical theory predicts that, on net, capital should flow from countries that are capital-abundant to countries that are capital-scarce. Yet increasingly emerging market firms are acquiring assets in developed countries. Using transaction-specific acquisition data and firm-level accounting data we evaluate the post-acquisition performance of publicly traded U.S. firms that have been acquired by firms from emerging markets over the period 1980-2007. Our empirical methodology uses a difference-in-differences approach combined with propensity score matching to create an appropriate control group of non-acquired firms. The results suggest that emerging country acquirers tend to choose U.S. targets that are larger in size (measured as sales, total assets and employment), relative to matched non-acquired U.S. firms before the acquisition year. In the years following the acquisition, sales and employment decline while profitability rises, suggesting significant restructuring of the target firms.fdi, foreign direct investment,