The U.S. financial sector's value added: trends now and then

The U.S. financial growth between 1995 and 2006 certainly translated into record-high shareholder returns. Labor compensation returns were also dramatically high at the onset of the current crisis.Financial markets

Has the recent real estate bubble biased the output gap?

We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.Real estate investment

Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED (ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data) real-time database. We consider averages over a variety of bivariate vector autoregressive models. These models are distinguished from one another based on at least one of the following factors: (i) the choice of variables used as predictors, (ii) the number of lags, (iii) use of all available data or only data after the Great Moderation, (iv) the observation window used to estimate the model parameters and construct averaging weights, and (v) for the forecast horizons greater than one, the use of either iterated multistep or direct multistep methods. A variety of averaging methods are considered. The results indicate that the benefits of model averaging relative to Bayesian information criterion-based model selection are highly dependent on the class of models averaged The authors provide a novel decomposition of the forecast improvements that allows determination of the most (and least) helpful types of averaging methods and models averaged across.Economic forecasting ; Real-time data

Toxic exposure in America: estimating fetal and infant health outcomes

We examine the effect of toxic exposure on U.S. infant and fetal mortality rates between 1989 and 2002 from toxic pollution released by facilities reporting to the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Unlike previous studies, we control for toxic pollution from mobile sources and from non-TRI reporting facilities. We find significant adverse effects of TRI exposure on infant mortality. There is evidence that health effects vary across media: air and water having a larger impact than land pollution. And, within air, we find that releases of carcinogens are particularly problematic for infant health outcomes. We estimate that the average county-level decreases in TRI concentrations between 1988 and 2002 saved in excess of 13,800 infant lives.Newborn infants - Mortality ; Public welfare

The Impact of the Droit de Suite in the UK: An Empirical Analysis

The Droit de Suite, known in the UK as Artists’ Resale Rights, provides an artist with the inalienable right to receive a royalty based on the resale price of an original work of art. This paper provides an empirical analysis of actual changes in the UK auction market for art that is subject to the Droit de Suite (DDS), relative to changes for art not subject to the DDS, and also relative to changes in the auction markets for art in countries where there has been no change in law. We do a difference-in-difference analysis, differencing price growth and sales growth across market segments and across countries over the period 1996 to 2007. Our results suggest that the introduction of the DDS has not had a negative impact on the UK art auction market.art; artists resale rights; auction; droit de suite

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Real-Time Forecast Averaging with ALFRE

The impact of the Droit de Suite in the UK: an empirical analysis

Droit de suite, Art, Art auctions, Price, Tax,