New Approach to Estimating the Standard Deviations of Lognormal Cost Variables in the Monte Carlo Analysis of Construction Risks

If soundly conducted, risk assessment could yield considerable savings for project investors. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been widely embraced by risk management guides as an instrumental tool for this purpose. This research aims to develop a new method to improve the rigor of MCS by establishing the link between parameter estimation and assessment of individual risk sources. The method is validated by virtue of its predictive power for the likelihood of a project being successful in securing investors. Eight Taiwanese sewerage Build-Operate-Transfer projects are investigated. Compared to the discounted cash flow approach, this new method can provide a more accurate prediction using the expert’s assessment as input of financial impact and occurrence likelihood of individual risks. This finding furnishes solid empirical evidence for the value MCS might add to project appraisal

Linkless octree using multi-level perfect hashing

The standard C/C++ implementation of a spatial partitioning data structure, such as octree and quadtree, is often inefficient in terms of storage requirements particularly when the memory overhead for maintaining parent-to-child pointers is significant with respect to the amount of actual data in each tree node. In this work, we present a novel data structure that implements uniform spatial partitioning without storing explicit parent-to-child pointer links. Our linkless tree encodes the storage locations of subdivided nodes using perfect hashing while retaining important properties of uniform spatial partitioning trees, such as coarse-to-fine hierarchical representation, efficient storage usage, and efficient random accessibility. We demonstrate the performance of our linkless trees using image compression and path planning examples.postprin

Continuous collision detection for ellipsoids

We present an accurate and efficient algorithm for continuous collision detection between two moving ellipsoids. We start with a highly optimized implementation of interference testing between two stationary ellipsoids based on an algebraic condition described in terms of the signs of roots of the characteristic equation of two ellipsoids. Then we derive a time-dependent characteristic equation for two moving ellipsoids, which enables us to develop a real-time algorithm for computing the time intervals in which two moving ellipsoids collide. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated with several practical examples. © 2006 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Functional lesional neurosurgery for tremor - a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction: The recent introduction of incision-less lesional neurosurgery using Gamma Knife and MRI-guided focused ultrasound has revived interest in lesional treatment options for tremor disorders. Preliminary literature researches reveal that the consistency of treatment effects after lesional neurosurgery for tremor has not formally been assessed yet. Similarly, the efficacy of different targets for lesional treatment and incidence of persistent side effects of lesional neurosurgical interventions has not been comprehensively assessed. This work therefore aims to describe a suitable process how to review the existing literature on efficacy and persistent side effects of lesional neurosurgical treatment for tremor due to Parkinson’s disease, essential tremor, multiple sclerosis and midbrain/rubral tremor. Methods and analysis: We will search electronic databases (Medline, Cochrane) and reference lists of included articles for studies reporting lesional interventions for tremor in cohorts homogeneous for tremor aetiology and intervention (technique and target). We will include cohorts with a minimum number of five subjects and follow-up of 2 months. One investigator will perform the initial literature search and two investigators then independently decide which references to include for final efficacy and safety analysis. After settling of disagreement, data will be extracted from articles using a standardised template. We will perform a random-effect meta-analysis calculating standardised mean differences (Hedge’s g) for comparison in Forest plots and subgroup analysis after assessment of heterogeneity using I2 statistics. Ethics and dissemination: This study will summarise the available evidence on the efficacy of lesional interventions for the most frequent tremor disorders, as well as for the incidence rate of persisting side effects after unilateral lesional treatment. This data will be useful to guide future work on incision-less lesional interventions for tremor. Systematic review registration: This study has been registered with the PROSPERO database (no. CRD42016048049)

Hierarchical dynamic causal modeling of resting-state fMRI reveals longitudinal changes in effective connectivity in the motor system after thalamotomy for essential tremor

Thalamotomy at the ventralis intermedius nucleus for essential tremor is known to cause changes in motor circuitry, but how a focal lesion leads to progressive changes in connectivity is not clear. To understand the mechanisms by which thalamotomy exerts enduring effects on motor circuitry, a quantitative analysis of directed or effective connectivity among motor-related areas is required. We characterized changes in effective connectivity of the motor system following thalamotomy using (spectral) dynamic causal modeling (spDCM) for resting-state fMRI. To differentiate long-lasting treatment effects from transient effects, and to identify symptom-related changes in effective connectivity, we subject longitudinal resting-state fMRI data to spDCM, acquired 1 day prior to, and 1 day, 7 days, and 3 months after thalamotomy using a non-cranium-opening MRI-guided focused ultrasound ablation technique. For the group-level (between subject) analysis of longitudinal (between-session) effects, we introduce a multilevel parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) analysis for spDCM. We found remarkably selective and consistent changes in effective connectivity from the ventrolateral nuclei and the supplementary motor area to the contralateral dentate nucleus after thalamotomy, which may be mediated via a polysynaptic thalamic-cortical-cerebellar motor loop. Crucially, changes in effective connectivity predicted changes in clinical motor-symptom scores after thalamotomy. This study speaks to the efficacy of thalamotomy in regulating the dentate nucleus in the context of treating essential tremor. Furthermore, it illustrates the utility of PEB for group-level analysis of dynamic causal modeling in quantifying longitudinal changes in effective connectivity; i.e., measuring long-term plasticity in human subjects non-invasively

Parent proxy-report of their children's health-related quality of life: an analysis of 13,878 parents' reliability and validity across age subgroups using the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement has emerged as an important health outcome in clinical trials, clinical practice improvement strategies, and healthcare services research and evaluation. While pediatric patient self-report should be considered the standard for measuring perceived HRQOL, there are circumstances when children are too young, too cognitively impaired, too ill or fatigued to complete a HRQOL instrument, and reliable and valid parent proxy-report instruments are needed in such cases. Further, it is typically parents' perceptions of their children's HRQOL that influences healthcare utilization. Data from the PedsQL™ Database(SM )were utilized to test the reliability and validity of parent proxy-report at the individual age subgroup level for ages 2–16 years as recommended by recent FDA guidelines. METHODS: The sample analyzed represents parent proxy-report age data on 13,878 children ages 2 to 16 years from the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales Database(SM). Parents were recruited from general pediatric clinics, subspecialty clinics, and hospitals in which their children were being seen for well-child checks, mild acute illness, or chronic illness care (n = 3,718, 26.8%), and from a State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) in California (n = 10,160, 73.2%). RESULTS: The percentage of missing item responses for the parent proxy-report sample as a whole was 2.1%, supporting feasibility. The majority of the parent proxy-report scales across the age subgroups exceeded the minimum internal consistency reliability standard of 0.70 required for group comparisons, while the Total Scale Scores across the age subgroups approached or exceeded the reliability criterion of 0.90 recommended for analyzing individual patient scale scores. Construct validity was demonstrated utilizing the known groups approach. For each PedsQL™ scale and summary score, across age subgroups, healthy children demonstrated a statistically significant difference in HRQOL (better HRQOL) than children with a known chronic health condition, with most effect sizes in the medium to large effect size range. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate the feasibility, reliability, and validity of parent proxy-report at the individual age subgroup for ages 2–16 years. These analyses are consistent with recent FDA guidelines which require instrument development and validation testing for children and adolescents within fairly narrow age groupings and which determine the lower age limit at which reliable and valid responses across age categories are achievable. Even as pediatric patient self-report is advocated, there remains a fundamental role for parent proxy-report in pediatric clinical trials and health services research

Surface Structures Determined by Kinetic Processes: Adsorption and Diffusion of Oxygen on Pd(100)

Atomic oxygen forms a metastable c(2×2) phase on Pd(100) under conditions of rapid adsorption (high pressure) and slow diffusion (low sample temperature). One possible explanation is that oxygen molecules require an 8-fold ensemble of empty sites for dissociative chemisorption, and that subsequent adatom motion is limited and creates no neighboring pairs of filled sites. We describe the properties of the adlayer predicted by such a model

Functional lesional neurosurgery for tremor: back to the future?

For nearly a century, functional neurosurgery has been applied in the treatment of tremor. While deep brain stimulation has been in the focus of academic interest in recent years, the establishment of incisionless technology, such as MRI-guided high-intensity focused ultrasound, has again stirred interest in lesional approaches.In this article, we will discuss the historical development of surgical technique and targets, as well as the technological state-of-the-art of conventional and incisionless interventions for tremor due to Parkinson's disease, essential and dystonic tremor and tremor related to multiple sclerosis (MS) and midbrain lesions. We will also summarise technique-inherent advantages of each technology and compare their lesion characteristics. From this, we identify gaps in the current literature and derive future directions for functional lesional neurosurgery, in particularly potential trial designs, alternative targets and the unsolved problem of bilateral lesional treatment. The results of a systematic review and meta-analysis of the consistency, efficacy and side effect rate of lesional treatments for tremor are presented separately alongside this article