Assessing the survival time of women with breast cancer in Northwestern Ethiopia: using the Bayesian approach

Abstract Background Despite the significant weight of difficulty, Ethiopia's survival rate and mortality predictors have not yet been identified. Finding out what influences outpatient breast cancer patients' survival time was the major goal of this study. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on outpatients with breast cancer. In order to accomplish the goal, 382 outpatients with breast cancer were included in the study using information obtained from the medical records of patients registered at the University of Gondar referral hospital in Gondar, Ethiopia, between May 15, 2016, and May 15, 2020. In order to compare survival functions, Kaplan-Meier plots and the log-rank test were used. The Cox-PH model and Bayesian parametric survival models were then used to examine the survival time of breast cancer outpatients. The use of integrated layered Laplace approximation techniques has been made. Results The study included 382 outpatients with breast cancer in total, and 148 (38.7%) patients died. 42 months was the estimated median patient survival time. The Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model was determined to be suitable using model selection criteria. Stage, grade 2, 3, and 4, co-morbid, histological type, FIGO stage, chemotherapy, metastatic number 1, 2, and >=3, and tumour size all have a sizable impact on the survival time of outpatients with breast cancer, according to the results of this model. The breast cancer outpatient survival time was correctly predicted by the Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model. Conclusions Compared to high- and middle-income countries, the overall survival rate was lower. Notable variables influencing the length of survival following a breast cancer diagnosis were weight loss, invasive medullar histology, comorbid disease, a large tumour size, an increase in metastases, an increase in the International Federation of Gynaecologists and Obstetricians stage, an increase in grade, lymphatic vascular space invasion, positive regional nodes, and late stages of cancer. The authors advise that it is preferable to increase the number of early screening programmes and treatment centres for breast cancer and to work with the public media to raise knowledge of the disease's prevention, screening, and treatment choices

The trend of change in cervical tumor size and time to death of hospitalized patients in northwestern Ethiopia during 2018–2022: Retrospective study design

Abstract Background and Aims Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer‐related death in the world. The objective of this study was to determine factors that affect the longitudinal change of tumor size and the time to death of outpat Methods A retrospective follow‐up study was carried out among 322 randomly selected patients with cervical cancer at the University of Gondar Referral Hospital from May 15, 2018 to May 15, 2022. Data were extracted from the patient's chart from all patients' data records. Kaplan–Meier estimator, log‐rank test, the Cox proportional‐hazard model, and the joint model for the two response variables simultaneously were used. Results Among 322 outpatients with cervical cancer, 148 (46%) of them were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and 107 (33.3%) of them died. The results of joint and separate models show that there is an association between survival and the longitudinal data in the analysis; it indicates that there is a dependency between longitudinal terms of cervical tumor size and time‐to‐death events. A unit centimeter square rise in tumor size, corresponding to an exp(0.8502) = 2.34 times, significantly raised the mortality risk. Conclusion The study showed that HIV, stage of cancer, treatment, weight, history of abortion, oral contraceptive use, smoking status, and visit time were statistically significant factors for the two outcomes jointly. Implications As a result, adequate health services and adequate resource allocations are critical for cervical cancer control and prevention programs. Therefore, the government should provide adequate funding and well‐trained health professionals to hospitals to sustain screening programs with appropriate coverage of cervical cancer patient treatments