Assessing the performance of Internal Wall Insulation considering transient conditions

Recent research suggests that every insulation material undergoes failure in varying degrees of severity. Based on data derived from specified mould risk failure criteria, this study developed a novel equation to quantify the performance of insulation materials/systems following such transient conditions. Transient conditions performance (TCP) was quantified using the period after exceeding the risk criteria, the duration of exceedance and recovery time. The current formulation does not readily distinguish between materials based on their ability to cope with transient conditions. Further research was initiated to incorporate more diverse variables with which to expand the specificity of the TCP quantification

Linking complexity economics and systems thinking, with illustrative discussions of urban sustainability

The expanding research of complexity economics has been signalling its preference for a formal quantitative investigation of diverse interactions between heterogeneous agents at the lower, micro-level resulting in emergent, realistic socioeconomic dynamics at the higher, macro-level. However, there is scarcity in research that explicitly links complexity perspectives in economics with the systems thinking literature, despite these being highly compatible, with strong connections and common historical traces. We aim to address this gap by exploring commonalities and differences between the two bodies of knowledge, seen particularly through an economics lens. We argue for a hybrid approach, in that agent-based complexity perspectives in economics could more closely connect to two main systems thinking attributes: a macroscopic approach to analytically capturing the complex dynamics of systems, and an inter-subjective interpretivist dimension, when investigating complex social-economic order. Illustrative discussions of city sustainability are provided, with an emphasis on decarbonisation and residential energy demand aspects

Assessing fungal risk criteria via simulated scenarios to address disparity between method and outcomes

Internal wall insulation is one of the most promising methods of improving the energy efficiency of buildings while maintaining their original facades and construction. However, porous materials or poor construction quality can allow moisture ingress, creating favourable conditions for mould development within building fabric. Currently, there is no established guidance on moisture criteria in the construction industry for the assessment of interstitial mould growth. Some studies have considered relative humidity (RH) criteria that account for the duration of exposure but potentially overestimate risk at interfaces. This study implemented more specific RH criteria, based not only on the duration of exposure but also on temperature and substrate material. Results demonstrated a dramatic decrease in predicted mould risk, with minimal risk to health or structural integrity, in comparison to the present more stringent standards

Home Energy Efficiency and Subjective Health in Greater London

The UK has introduced legislation that requires net-zero greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved by 2050. Improving the energy efficiency of homes is a key objective to help reach this target, and the UK government's Clean Growth Strategy aims to get many homes up to an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) Band of C by 2035. The relationship between home energy-efficiency and occupant health and wellbeing remains an area of ongoing research. This paper explores the nexus between home energy efficiency, energy consumption and self-reported health-an indicator of the general health and wellbeing of the population. We focus on Greater London through secondary data analysis. Energy-efficiency ratings and air infiltration rates of dwellings, derived from EPCs, were aggregated and matched to local area self-reported health and energy consumption data obtained from the Greater London Authority's (GLA) Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) Atlas database. Our regression model indicates that improving the energy efficiency (SAP) rating by 10 points for a typical home may reduce household gas consumption by around 7% (95% CIs: 2%, 14%). Beta regression finds a positive, but not statistically significant association between median SAP rating and the proportion of the population reporting 'good or very good' health when considering all Greater London LSOAs (z score = 0.60, p value = 0.55). A statistically significant positive association is observed however when repeating the analysis for the lowest income quartile LSOAs (z score = 2.03, p value = 0.04). This indicates that the least well-off may benefit most from home energy efficiency programs. A statistically significant positive association is also observed for the relationship between self-reported health and air infiltration rates (z score = 2.62, p value = 0.01). The findings support existing evidence for the predominantly naturally ventilated UK housing stock, suggesting that home energy efficiency measures provide a co-benefit for occupant health provided that adequate air exchange is maintained

Evaluation of the cold weather plan for England:modelling of cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England is likely to prove cost-effective in order to inform the development of the CWP in the short term before direct data on costs and benefits can be collected. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study undertaken in the absence of direct epidemiological evidence on the effect of the CWP in reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity, and limited data or on its costs. METHODS: The model comprised a simulated temperature time series based on historical data; epidemiologically-derived relationships between temperature, and mortality and morbidity; and information on baseline unit costs of contacts with health care and community care services. Cost-effectiveness was assessed assuming varying levels of protection against cold-related burdens, coverage of the vulnerable population and willingness-to-pay criteria. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the CWP is likely to be cost effective under some scenarios at the high end of the willingness to pay threshold used by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England, but these results are sensitive to assumptions about the extent of implementation of the CWP at local level, and its assumed effectiveness when implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied from £29,754 to £75,875 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. Conventional cost-effectiveness (15%) in avoiding deaths and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the modelling relied on a large number of assumptions, this type of modelling is useful for understanding whether, and in what circumstances, untested plans are likely to be cost-effective before they are implemented and in the early period of implementation before direct data on cost-effectiveness have accrued. Steps can then be taken to optimize the relevant parameters as far as practicable during the early implementation period

Public health vulnerability to wintertime weather:time-series regression and episode analyses of national mortality and morbidity databases to inform the Cold Weather Plan for England

OBJECTIVES: To inform development of Public Health England's Cold Weather Plan (CWP) by characterizing pre-existing relationships between wintertime weather and mortality and morbidity outcomes, and identification of groups most at risk. STUDY DESIGN: Time-series regression analysis and episode analysis of daily mortality, emergency hospital admissions, and accident and emergency visits for each region of England. METHODS: Seasonally-adjusted Poisson regression models estimating the percent change in daily health events per 1 °C fall in temperature or during individual episodes of extreme weather. RESULTS: Adverse cold effects were observed in all regions, with the North East, North West and London having the greatest risk of cold-related mortality. Nationally, there was a 3.44% (95% CI: 3.01, 3.87) increase in all-cause deaths and 0.78% (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) increase in all-cause emergency admissions for every 1 °C drop in temperature below identified thresholds. The very elderly and people with COPD were most at risk from low temperatures. A&E visits for fractures were elevated during heavy snowfall periods, with adults (16-64 years) being the most sensitive age-group. Since even moderately cold days are associated with adverse health effects, by far the greatest health burdens of cold weather fell outside of the alert periods currently used in the CWP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that levels 0 ('year round planning') and 1 ('winter preparedness and action') are crucial components of the CWP in comparison to the alerts. Those most vulnerable during winter may vary depending on the type of weather conditions being experienced. Recommendations are made for the CWP

Assessment of the effects of the control of grazing system in grazed arid steppic rangelands in Algeria

Face à la dégradation dont souffre la steppe en Algérie, la mise en repos, introduite récemment, représente un moyen efficace de contrôle et de gestion des écosystèmes pâturés des parcours steppiques arides de cette région. Trois sites ont été étudiés en vue d’évaluer dans chacun d’eux les effets de l’exclusion du pâturage suivie d’une gestion en pâturage contrôlé par rapport à un usage libre. La composition et la diversité floristique de la végétation, l’état de surface du sol et la qualité fourragère des espaces contrôlés, montrent une amélioration par rapport aux terrains pâturés librement. La nécessité d’un tel aménagement dans les parcours steppiques arides ainsi que la méthode d’échantillonnage dans ce genre d’évaluation sont discutéesFacing the degradation that the steppe in Algeria suffered, the grazing system using deferred grazing, introduced recently, is an effective means to control and manage the grazed ecosystems of steppic rangelands. Three sites have been studied to assess in each of them, the effects of the managed grazing on ecosystem in comparison to the free grazed ones. The composition and plant species diversity, surface soil conditions and forage quality in controlled areas, showed improvement compared with the freely grazed land. In the present work and usually regarding similar assessment tasks, conditions and sampling design are dictated by a request made much later after the grazing management set-up. The need of such a management in the arid rangelands and the sampling method are discusse

Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan.

Background: The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP. Methods: Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013. Results: Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms. Conclusions: The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience