Assessing framing assumptions in quantitative health impact assessments: a housing intervention example.

Health impact assessment (HIA) is often used to determine ex ante the health impact of an environmental policy or an environmental intervention. Underpinning any HIA is the framing assumption, which defines the causal pathways mapping environmental exposures to health outcomes. The sensitivity of the HIA to the framing assumptions is often ignored. A novel method based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is developed to quantify the framing assumptions in the assessment stage of a HIA, and is then applied to a housing intervention (tightening insulation) as a case-study. Framing assumptions of the case-study were identified through a literature search of Ovid Medline (1948-2011). The FCM approach was used to identify the key variables that have the most influence in a HIA. Changes in air-tightness, ventilation, indoor air quality and mould/humidity have been identified as having the most influence on health. The FCM approach is widely applicable and can be used to inform the formulation of the framing assumptions in any quantitative HIA of environmental interventions. We argue that it is necessary to explore and quantify framing assumptions prior to conducting a detailed quantitative HIA during the assessment stage

The effect on the Nusselt number of the non-linear axial temperature distribution of gas flows through commercial microtubes

This paper was presented at the 3rd Micro and Nano Flows Conference (MNF2011), which was held at the Makedonia Palace Hotel, Thessaloniki in Greece. The conference was organised by Brunel University and supported by the Italian Union of Thermofluiddynamics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University of Thessaly, IPEM, the Process Intensification Network, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, the Heat Transfer Society, HEXAG - the Heat Exchange Action Group, and the Energy Institute.The characteristics of nitrogen convective heat transfer through commercial stainless steel microtubes with inner diameter of 172 μm and 750 μm are investigated both experimentally and numerically. In this work is highlighted that the axial local gas bulk temperature distribution can present a strong nonlinearity along the flow direction especially for microtubes having a small inner diameter and a thick solid wall. It is also demonstrated that the trend of the experimental Nusselt numbers as a function of the Reynolds number can be considered in good agreement with the conventional correlations if the average bulk temperature is calculated by taking into account the axial non-linearity of the gas bulk temperature. This fact explains the low values of the Nusselt numbers obtained in the previous experimental works appeared in literature where the convective heat transfer for gas flows through microtubes has been investigated assuming the gas bulk temperature distribution between the inlet and the outlet of the microtube as linear without verifying this hypothesis.European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (ITN - FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 215504

Health effects of home energy efficiency interventions in England: a modelling study

Objective: To assess potential public health impacts of changes to indoor air quality and temperature due to energy efficiency retrofits in English dwellings to meet 2030 carbon reduction targets. Design: Health impact modelling study. Setting: England. Participants: English household population. Intervention: Three retrofit scenarios were modelled: (1) fabric and ventilation retrofits installed assuming building regulations are met. (2) As with scenario (1) but with additional ventilation for homes at risk of poor ventilation. (3) As with scenario (1) but with no additional ventilation to illustrate the potential risk of weak regulations and non-compliance. Main Outcome: Primary outcomes were changes in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) over 50 years from cardiorespiratory diseases, lung cancer, asthma and common mental disorders due to changes in indoor air pollutants, including: second-hand tobacco smoke, PM2.5 from indoor and outdoor sources, radon, mould, and indoor winter temperatures. Results: The modelling study estimates showed that scenario (1) resulted in positive effects on net mortality and morbidity of 2,241 (95% credible intervals (CI) 2,085 to 2,397) QALYs per 10,000 persons over 50 years due to improved temperatures and reduced exposure to indoor pollutants, despite an increase in exposure to outdoor–generated PM2.5. Scenario (2) resulted in a negative impact of -728 (95% CI -864 to -592) QALYs per 10,000 persons over 50 years due to an overall increase in indoor pollutant exposures. Scenario (3) resulted in -539 (95% CI -678 to -399) QALYs per 10,000 persons over 50 years due to an increase in indoor exposures despite targeting. Conclusions: If properly implemented alongside ventilation, energy efficiency retrofits in housing can improve health by reducing exposure to cold and air pollutants. Maximising the health benefits requires careful understanding of the balance of changes in pollutant exposures, highlighting the importance of ventilation to mitigate the risk of poor indoor air quality

Design of nanophotonic circuits for autonomous subsystem quantum error correction

We reapply our approach to designing nanophotonic quantum memories to formulate an optical network that autonomously protects a single logical qubit against arbitrary single-qubit errors. Emulating the 9 qubit Bacon-Shor subsystem code, the network replaces the traditionally discrete syndrome measurement and correction steps by continuous, time-independent optical interactions and coherent feedback of unitarily processed optical fields.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Linking complexity economics and systems thinking, with illustrative discussions of urban sustainability

The expanding research of complexity economics has been signalling its preference for a formal quantitative investigation of diverse interactions between heterogeneous agents at the lower, micro-level resulting in emergent, realistic socioeconomic dynamics at the higher, macro-level. However, there is scarcity in research that explicitly links complexity perspectives in economics with the systems thinking literature, despite these being highly compatible, with strong connections and common historical traces. We aim to address this gap by exploring commonalities and differences between the two bodies of knowledge, seen particularly through an economics lens. We argue for a hybrid approach, in that agent-based complexity perspectives in economics could more closely connect to two main systems thinking attributes: a macroscopic approach to analytically capturing the complex dynamics of systems, and an inter-subjective interpretivist dimension, when investigating complex social-economic order. Illustrative discussions of city sustainability are provided, with an emphasis on decarbonisation and residential energy demand aspects

Home Energy Efficiency and Subjective Health in Greater London

The UK has introduced legislation that requires net-zero greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved by 2050. Improving the energy efficiency of homes is a key objective to help reach this target, and the UK government's Clean Growth Strategy aims to get many homes up to an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) Band of C by 2035. The relationship between home energy-efficiency and occupant health and wellbeing remains an area of ongoing research. This paper explores the nexus between home energy efficiency, energy consumption and self-reported health-an indicator of the general health and wellbeing of the population. We focus on Greater London through secondary data analysis. Energy-efficiency ratings and air infiltration rates of dwellings, derived from EPCs, were aggregated and matched to local area self-reported health and energy consumption data obtained from the Greater London Authority's (GLA) Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) Atlas database. Our regression model indicates that improving the energy efficiency (SAP) rating by 10 points for a typical home may reduce household gas consumption by around 7% (95% CIs: 2%, 14%). Beta regression finds a positive, but not statistically significant association between median SAP rating and the proportion of the population reporting 'good or very good' health when considering all Greater London LSOAs (z score = 0.60, p value = 0.55). A statistically significant positive association is observed however when repeating the analysis for the lowest income quartile LSOAs (z score = 2.03, p value = 0.04). This indicates that the least well-off may benefit most from home energy efficiency programs. A statistically significant positive association is also observed for the relationship between self-reported health and air infiltration rates (z score = 2.62, p value = 0.01). The findings support existing evidence for the predominantly naturally ventilated UK housing stock, suggesting that home energy efficiency measures provide a co-benefit for occupant health provided that adequate air exchange is maintained

Comparison of indoor temperatures of homes with recommended temperatures and effects of disability and age: an observational, cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: We examine if temperatures in winter in English homes meet the recommendation of being at least 18°C at all times. We analyse how many days meet this criterion and calculate the hours per day and night being at/above 18°C. These metrics are compared between households with occupants aged above 64 years or having a long-term disability (LTD) and those younger and without disability. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, observational. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: 635 households. OUTCOMES MEASURES: (1) Mean temperatures, (2) proportion of days of the measurement period meeting the criterion, (3) average hours at/above 18°C, (4) average hours at night at/above 18°C. RESULTS: Mean winter temperatures in the bedroom were MBR=18.15°C (SD=2.51), the living room MLR=18.90°C (SD=2.46) and the hallway MHall=18.25°C (SD=2.57).The median number of days meeting the criterion was 19-31%. For the living room, more days meet the criterion in the group with a LTD (Mdisability=342 vs Mno_disability=301, 95% CI 8 to 74), and with someone over 64 years present (Mabove64=341, Mbelow65=301 95%, CI 8 to 74).The median number of hours/day meeting the criterion was 13-17. In the living room, households with a disability had more hours at 18°C (Mdisability=364, Mno_disability=297, 95% CI 17 to 83) as did the older age group (Mabove64=347, Mbelow65=296, 95% CI 18 to 84). In the hallway, more hours met the criterion in households with a disability (Mdisability=338, Mno_disability=302, 95% CI 3 to 70).247 homes had at least nine hours of at least 18°C at night; no effect of age or disability. CONCLUSIONS: Many households are at risk of negative health outcomes because of temperatures below recommendations

Modelling uniformly porous façades to predict dwelling infiltration rates

It is important to limit dwelling infiltration to reduce energy demand and help meet national climate change commitments while concurrently providing sufficient ventilation to deliver adequate indoor air quality. DOMVENT3D is a model of infiltration and exfiltration that assumes a linear pressure distribution over any number of uniformly porous facades and integrates the airflow rate in the vertical plane to predict the theoretically correct airflow rate through them. DOMVENT3D is a new development of an existing two-dimensional model of infiltration that provides more opportunities for investigating a greater number of dwellings than was previously possible. Initial testing suggests that DOMVENT3D is mathematically robust and is suitable for modelling a wide variety of dwelling types and geometries to assist engineers and policy makers. Practical application: The modern building services engineer may be required to model airflow networks in a building to balance the conflicting needs of energy consumption reduction and occupant health. Limiting exfiltration is one method of reducing heat losses from a building and so there is a need to model it accurately. This article presents a new model of infiltration and exfiltration through a uniformly porous facade that can be incorporated within advanced complex airflow network tools or applied using a simple spreadsheet