Examining the influence of cell size and bandwidth size on kernel density estimation crime hotspot maps for predicting spatial patterns of crime

Hotspot mapping is a popular technique used for helping target police patrols and other crime reduction initiatives. There are a number of spatial analysis techniques that can be used for identifying hotspots, but the most popular in recent years is kernel density estimation (KDE). KDE is popular because of the visually appealing way it represents the spatial distribution of crime, and because it is considered to be the most accurate of the commonly used hotspot mapping techniques. To produce KDE outputs, the researcher is required to enter values for two main parameters: the cell size and bandwidth size. To date little research has been conducted on the influence these parameters have on KDE hotspot mapping output, and none has been conducted on the influence these parameter settings have on a hotspot map’s central purpose – to identify where crime may occur in the future. We fill this gap with this research by conducting a number of experiments using different cell size and bandwidth values with crime data on residential burglary and violent assaults. We show that cell size has little influence on KDE crime hotspot maps for predicting spatial patterns of crime, but bandwidth size does have an influence. We conclude by discussing how the findings from this research can help inform police practitioners and researchers make better use of KDE for targeting policing and crime prevention initiatives

A Comparison of Burglary Near Repeat Victimization Between Rural and Urban Areas Using a Target-Based Assessment of Criminal Opportunity

Numerous studies have shown that near repeat victimization of burglaries can account for a substantial minority of burglaries in urban settings. Using a method based on the distribution of potential targets to determine the size of spatial bandwidths, the presence of burglary near repeats in rural areas was examined and compared to the level of near repeats in urban areas. A significant burglary near repeat pattern was observed in rural areas, but was restricted to the spatial and temporal bands that were closest to and most recently after a previous burglary. The proportion of all burglaries that were near repeats in this nearest spatial and temporal bands was greater than that observed in urban areas. The findings lead to extending how the boost account and offender foraging principles may apply in rural settings, and the identification of crime prevention opportunities that counter near repeats in rural areas

More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting

Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings

A structured methodical process for populating a crime script of organized crime activity using OSINT

Crime script analysis is becoming an increasingly used approach for examining organized crime. Crime scripts can use data from multiple sources, including open sources of intelligence (OSINT). Limited guidance exists, however, on how to populate the content of a crime script with data, and validate these data. This results in crime scripts being generated intuitively, restricts them from being scrutinised for their quality, and limits the opportunity to combine or compare crime scripts. We introduce a practical process for populating the content of a crime script that involves simple coding procedures and uses document analysis to quality assure data that are extracted from open sources. We illustrate the process with the example of theft of oil from pipelines in Mexico committed by organized crime groups. The structured methodical process we introduce produces a crime script of high quality, helps to improve the systematic analysis of decision-making performed by members of organized crime groups, and can improve the identification of opportunities for crime control

The impact of a hot spot policing program in Montevideo, Uruguay: an evaluation using a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference negative binomial approach

Hot spot policing has proven to be effective in reducing crime in cities in North America, Europe and Australasia, but to date, its application and evaluation in Latin American settings has been limited. PADO (Programa de Alta Dedicación Operativa) is a large-scale hot spot policing program implemented by the Uruguay Police in April 2016 in the city of Montevideo. Using an evaluation technique that compares the differential effect between areas where PADO was deployed and control areas, a 23 percent reduction in the rate at which robberies occurred was experienced in the PADO areas, with no significant displacement to neighboring areas, or other areas of the city during the study period. The study indicates that hot spot policing programs can be effective in reducing crime in Latin American urban environments and illustrates how targeted police interventions can be robustly evaluated when control areas are not established at the outset of an intervention

Examining the extent of repeat and near repeat victimisation of domestic burglaries in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Substantial research suggests that a burglary event is a useful predictor of burglaries to the same or nearby properties in the near future. To date, the research that has suggested this predictive quality has been based on studies that have focused on crime patterns in western industrialised countries, such as the UK, USA and Australia. These studies have in turn informed the design of effective burglary reduction programmes that have a specific focus towards countering the risk of repeats and near repeats. This current study adds to the existing research knowledge by examining whether patterns of burglary repeats and near repeats are evident in Belo Horizonte, a large Brazilian city. Domestic dwellings in Brazilian cities, as typified by those in Belo Horizonte, are quite different to dwellings in western countries—many city-dwelling Brazilians live in apartments in high rise buildings, most houses and apartment blocks are surrounded by high perimeter fencing, and a reasonable proportion of dwellings are irregular self-constructed houses. As a consequence, a different infrastructure of domestic living may result in differences in patterns of domestic burglary when compared to patterns in western countries. The research identifies that the extent of repeat and near repeat patterns in the city of Belo Horizonte are lower than those in comparable western urban contexts. We discuss the implications of these findings and how they impact on the translating of practice on crime prevention and crime prediction to the urban Latin American context

Improving the Creation of Hot Spot Policing Patrol Routes: Comparing Cognitive Heuristic Performance to an Automated Spatial Computation Approach

Hot spot policing involves the deployment of police patrols to places where high levels of crime have previously concentrated. The creation of patrol routes in these hot spots is mainly a manual process that involves using the results from an analysis of spatial patterns of crime to identify the areas and draw the routes that police officers are required to patrol. In this article we introduce a computational approach for automating the creation of hot spot policing patrol routes. The computational techniques we introduce created patrol routes that covered areas of higher levels of crime than an equivalent manual approach for creating hot spot policing patrol routes, and were more efficient in how they covered crime hot spots. Although the evidence on hot spot policing interventions shows they are effective in decreasing crime, the findings from the current research suggest that the impact of these interventions can potentially be greater when using the computational approaches that we introduce for creating hot spot policing patrol routes

Crime concentration at micro-places in Latin America

Research on crime concentration at micro-places has had a very western-industrialised focus. In this paper we provide results on crime concentration for 42 cities in Latin America. The results suggest that crime is concentrated at higher levels in Latin American cities than in western-industrialised contexts. Reasons for this do not appear to be related to population size, average street length, numbers of crimes or crime rates. The results offer an indication of the crime reduction opportunities that could come from the implementation of programs that are precisely targeted to the micro-places where crime has been observed to highly concentrate, such as hot spot policing

Trouble in paradise: The crime and health outcomes of the Surfers Paradise licensed venue lockout

Introduction and Aims: The lockout intervention has become embedded in Australian alcohol policy with little scientific evidence of its effectiveness in reducing violence and disorder. This paper reports an evaluation of the Queensland lockout pilot in Surfers Paradise. Patrons could not enter or re-enter licensed venues after 3 am, while patrons inside at this time could stay until close. Design and Methods: Using police and ambulance data, time series analyses examined the impact of tourism seasons and the lockout on rates of crime, violence, injury and intoxication. Additional analyses were also conducted to show spatial and temporal changes in crime over time. Results: Both police and ambulance data showed that the lockout introduction had no statistically significant impact on rates of crime, violence, head and neck injuries, and intoxication over the 2 years following lockout. Hot spot maps indicated limited spatial shift of crime within Surfers Paradise following the lockout introduction, with evidence of a temporary intensification of crime in already established hot spots. We found a moderate statistically significant change in the 24 h distribution of crime after the lockout implementation, suggesting temporal displacement of crime. Discussion: Results support the small existing body of evidence on lockouts that indicates they are largely ineffective in reducing crime and injuries in entertainment districts. Conclusion: As multi-pronged strategies that include a lockout gain in popularity, further investigation should focus on identifying the key drivers of successful interventions such as the Newcastle strategy, to better refine these interventions for replication and evaluation elsewhere. [De Andrade D, Homel R, Townsley M. Trouble in paradise: The crime and health outcomes of the Surfers Paradise licensed venue lockout. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:564–572]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drug