Trend Analysis of Hydro-Meteorological Variables in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin, Algeria

In recent decades, a plethora of natural disasters, including floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, and various other weather-related events, have brought destruction worldwide. In particular, Algeria is facing several natural hydrometeorological and geological hazards. In this study, meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine) and runoff data were analyzed for the Wadi Ouahrane basin (northern Algeria), into which drains much of the surrounding agricultural land and is susceptible to floods. In particular, a trend analysis was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, the Sen’s slope estimator, and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method to detect possible trends in the time series over the period 1972/73–2017/2018. The results revealed significant trends in several hydro-meteorological variables. In particular, neither annual nor monthly precipitation showed a clear tendency, thus failing to indicate potential changes in the rainfall patterns. Temperature evidenced a warming trend, indicating a potential shift in the local climate, while streamflow revealed a decreasing trend, reflecting the complex interaction between precipitation and other hydrological factors

Epidemiology of Clostridium Difficile Infection in a Large Hospital in Northern Italy: Questioning the Ward-Based Transmission

Background: Clostridium Difficile infection (CDI) is considered a ward-based nosocomial infection, due to contagion among patients. Molecular studies recently questioned ward-based contact for disease spread. Objective: To investigate whether it is plausible that CDI spread in San Martino Hospital of Genoa was due to a ward-based contact and patientto- patient diffusion. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CDI cases from April 2010 to March 2015. We referred to Hospital data set and Admission Service. Multilevel modelling approach and ecological analysis were used to assess C. difficile infection risk according to wards and time of occurrence. Six representative CD strains were ribotyped to assess a possible equivalence. Results: The assessment of 514 CDI cases showed that the risk of disease and rate of incidence in wards were independent, while frequency of cases and number of wards involved exhibited a positive relationship, excluding the typical epidemic pattern of contagious diffusion, i.e., many cases in few wards. The extra-binomial variability due to ward clustering was not significant, indicating homogeneity in the probability of CDI occurrence across all wards. Three hundred sixty-eight patients changed ward, without showing connection between the frequency of cases in new wards and incidence among new subjects. Trigonometric components described a significant contribution of seasonality, with excess of CDI cases during the winter months. Molecular analysis showed different ribotypes of CD strains from the same ward. Conclusion: From our results it seems unlikely that in our institution CDI occurrence is due to ward-based contact and inter-human contagion of the organism

Contribution of Geomatics Engineering and VGI Within the Landslide Risk Assessment Procedures

This paper presents a literature review on the methodology called Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and its use for Landslide Risk Assessment (LRA). General risk assessment procedures are discussed and the potential contributions of VGI are identified, in particular when quantitative characterization of factors such as Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure is required. The review shows that the standard LRA procedures may benefit from input given by surveyors when performing hazard assessments, while crowdsourced data would be a valuable support in vulnerability/damage assessment studies. The review also highlights several limitations related to the role of VGI and crowdsourcing in LRA

Real-time drought forecasting system for irrigation management

In recent years frequent periods of water scarcity have enhanced the need to use water more carefully, even in European areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water, such as the Po Valley in northern Italy. In dry periods, water shortage problems can be enhanced by conflicting uses of water, such as irrigation, industry and power production (hydroelectric and thermoelectric). Furthermore, in the last decade the social perspective in relation to this issue has been increasing due to the possible impact of climate change and global warming scenarios which emerge from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013). Hence, the increased frequency of drought periods has stimulated the improvement of irrigation and water management. In this study we show the development and implementation of the PREGI real-time drought forecasting system; PREGI is an Italian acronym that means "hydro-meteorological forecast for irrigation management". The system, planned as a tool for irrigation optimization, is based on meteorological ensemble forecasts (20 members) at medium range (30 days) coupled with hydrological simulations of water balance to forecast the soil water content on a maize field in the Muzza Bassa Lodigiana (MBL) consortium in northern Italy. The hydrological model was validated against measurements of latent heat flux acquired by an eddy-covariance station, and soil moisture measured by TDR (time domain reflectivity) probes; the reliability of this forecasting system and its benefits were assessed in the 2012 growing season. The results obtained show how the proposed drought forecasting system is able to have a high reliability of forecast at least for 7–10 days ahead of time

From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts: The ‘shift-target’ approach in the milan urban area (Northern Italy)

The number of natural catastrophes that affect people worldwide is increasing; among these, the hydro-meteorological events represent the worst scenario due to the thousands of deaths and huge damages to private and state ownership they can cause. To prevent this, besides various structural measures, many non-structural solutions, such as the implementation of flood warning systems, have been proposed in recent years. In this study, we suggest a low computational cost method to produce a probabilistic flood prediction system using a single forecast precipitation scenario perturbed via a spatial shift. In fact, it is well-known that accurate forecasts of heavy precipitation, especially associated with deep moist convection, are challenging due to uncertainties arising from the numerical weather prediction (NWP), and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the initial atmospheric state. Inaccuracies in precipitation forecasts are partially due to spatial misplacing. To produce hydro-meteorological simulations and forecasts, we use a flood forecasting system which comprises the physically-based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB developed by the Politecnico di Milano, and the MOLOCH meteorological model provided by the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC). The areas of study are the hydrological basins of the rivers Seveso, Olona, and Lambro located in the northern part of Milan city (northern Italy) where this system works every day in real-time. In this paper, we show the performance of reforecasts carried out between the years 2012 and 2015: in particular, we explore the ‘Shift-Target’ (ST) approach in order to obtain 40 ensemble members, which we assume equally likely, derived from the available deterministic precipitation forecast. Performances are shown through statistical indexes based on exceeding the threshold for different gauge stations over the three hydrological basins. Results highlight how the Shift-Target approach complements the deterministic MOLOCH-based flood forecast for warning purposes

Impact of infiltration process modeling on soil water content simulations for irrigation management

The uncertainty in a hydrological model, due to its structure or implemented input parameters, affects the accuracy of simulations that are usually used for important applications such as drought predictions, flood risk assessment, irrigation scheduling, ground water recharge and contamination. Several models describing soil infiltration processes have been developed. Some are analytical, while others implement numerical solutions of the Richards' equation. The objective of this work was to assess the impact of infiltration process modeling on soil water content simulations. For this study, different infiltration models were included within FEST-WB (Flash Flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall-runoffTransformations-Water Balance) distributed hydrological model (SCS-CN, Green and Ampt, Philip and Ross solution). Performances of implemented infiltration models in simulating soil water content were evaluated against observations acquired in the experimental site located in a maize field in northern Italy. Soil water content was monitored together with continuous measurements of meteorological data. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the most important parameters governing infiltration process in the different models tested. A comparison of soil water content simulations show that Ross solution allowed the description of soil moisture variation along the vertical, but simpler lumped models provide sufficient accuracy when properly calibrated

Candidate biomarkers from the integration of methylation and gene expression in discordant autistic sibling pairs

While the genetics of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) has been intensively studied, resulting in the identification of over 100 putative risk genes, the epigenetics of ASD has received less attention, and results have been inconsistent across studies. We aimed to investigate the contribution of DNA methylation (DNAm) to the risk of ASD and identify candidate biomarkers arising from the interaction of epigenetic mechanisms with genotype, gene expression, and cellular proportions. We performed DNAm differential analysis using whole blood samples from 75 discordant sibling pairs of the Italian Autism Network collection and estimated their cellular composition. We studied the correlation between DNAm and gene expression accounting for the potential effects of different genotypes on DNAm. We showed that the proportion of NK cells was significantly reduced in ASD siblings suggesting an imbalance in their immune system. We identified differentially methylated regions (DMRs) involved in neurogenesis and synaptic organization. Among candidate loci for ASD, we detected a DMR mapping to CLEC11A (neighboring SHANK1) where DNAm and gene expression were significantly and negatively correlated, independently from genotype effects. As reported in previous studies, we confirmed the involvement of immune functions in the pathophysiology of ASD. Notwithstanding the complexity of the disorder, suitable biomarkers such as CLEC11A and its neighbor SHANK1 can be discovered using integrative analyses even with peripheral tissues

SOL40: Forty Years of Simulations under Climate and Land Use Change

Nowadays, a major issue is land-use change by urban development that alters the catchment response to meteorological events. Urban basins have less storage capacity and more rapid runoff, so urban rivers rise more quickly during storms and have higher peak discharge rates than rural catchments. An exemplary case of this situation is the city of Milan (northern Italy) and its whole territory that extends towards the north collecting meteoric precipitation through the Seveso, Olona and Lambro (SOL) rivers. To assess the impact of anthropogenic development on urban catchment scale hydrology, a reanalysis of 40 years of simulations was carried out with the Curve Number (CN) map based on current land use and compared to simulations using the CN maps based on past land use. A coupled hydro-meteorological system was built that combined a physically based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB, developed by the Politecnico di Milano, with the ERA5-Land hourly dataset for the period 1981 to 2020, that was provided by the ECMWF under the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Programme. The study (named SOL40) analyses 40 year trends in the main meteorological (air temperature, precipitation) and hydrological variables (runoff) over the SOL area and tried to quantify and separate the impact of land use change from that of climate change