Evaluating Job Search Programs for Old and Young Individuals: Heterogeneous Impact on Unemployment Duration

This paper exploits an area-based pilot experiment to identify average treatment effects on unemployment duration of treated individuals of two active labor market programs implemented in Portugal. We focus on the short-term heterogeneous impact on two subpopulations of unemployed individuals: young (targeted by the Inserjovem program) and old (targeted by the Reage program). We show that the latter program has a small and positive impact (reduction) on unemployment duration of workers finding a job upon participation, whereas the impact of Inserjovem is generally negative (extended durations). These results are robust to a wide variety of constructions of quasi-experimental settings and estimators. The identification of heterogeneous effects showed that the program results were less satisfactory for young workers, for those over 40 and for the less educated. Women also benefited less from the programs. The results seem to improve slightly for young workers in the 2nd semester of implementation, but they deteriorate in the medium term. The lack of wage subsidies in the Portuguese programs may explain the minor impacts obtained, when compared to similar programs

When Supply Meets Demand: Wage Inequality in Portugal

Wage inequality in Portugal increased over the last quarter of century. The period from 1982 to 1995 witnessed strong increases in both upper- and lower-tail inequality. A shortage of skills combined with skill-biased technological changes are at the core of this evolution. Since 1995, lower-tail inequality decreased, while upper-tail inequality increased at a slower rate. The supply of high-skilled workers more than doubled during this period, contributing significantly to the slowdown. Polarization of employment demand is the more credible explanation for the more recent evolution. As in other developed economies, for instance Germany and the United States, we show that institutions played a minor role in shaping changes in inequality.inequality, polarization, supply, demand, institutions

Excess Worker Turnover and Fixed-Term Contracts: Causal Evidence in a Two-Tier System

Portuguese firms engage in intense reallocation, most employers simultaneously hire and separate from workers, resulting in high excess worker turnover flows. These flows are constrained by the employment protection gap between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. We explore a reform that increased the employment protection of open-ended contracts and generated a quasi-experiment. The causal evidence points to an increase in the share and in the excess turnover of fixed-term contracts in treated firms. The excess turnover of open-ended contracts remained unchanged. This result is consistent with a high degree of substitution between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. At the firm level, we also show that excess turnover is quite heterogeneous and quantify its association with firm, match, and worker characteristics.excess worker turnover, two-tier systems, quasi-experiment, fixed-term contracts

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance Generosity on Match Quality Distribution

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity on the distribution of match tenure. We show that more generous UI increases expected tenure, reducing the mass of the lower tail of match duration and increasing the duration of matches available. This impact is differentiated across education levels, with the larger benefits accruing to the less educated.

Identifying Unemployment Insurance Income Effects with a Quasi-Natural Experiment

This paper acknowledges that UI has a non-distortionary income effect generated by easing the liquidity constraints of the unemployed. Using an exogenous increase in the entitlement period as a quasi-experimental setting, we find evidence of an important income effect. The extension of the entitlement period prolongs unemployment spells, but its effect is decreasing with the degree of liquidity constraints (indexed by wages quintiles). An exception to this pattern is the behavior of individuals in the first wages quintile. The fact that the most constrained individuals extend the least their unemployment spells conforms to the nonstationarity of the job search process. This result points to the possibility that the UI system may become regressive, benefiting significantly less those at the bottom of the wage distribution, who find it harder to benefit from extended UI entitlements.

Neoliberalism and patterns of economic performance: 1980 to 2000

Neoliberal discourse often produces the impression that the world has undergone a wholesale shift toward laissez-faire and that this shift has produced economic prosperity. This article examines national economic data to discern the degree to which (1) governments have in fact retreated from the market and (2) countries have enjoyed increasing economic prosperity over a period in which they have supposedly been liberalizing. The evidence is mixed on both counts. Although international capital mobility and trade liberalism appears to have grown over the past two decades, there is little evidence of a broad scaling back of governments. Over the same period, countries have not experienced any appreciable improvement in growth, cross-national equality, employment, or national debt loads, although there is some evidence of improved price stability near the end of the 1990s.trade; neoliberalism; structural adjustment; Latin America; economy; transfers; budget; spending