Online and official price indexes: Measuring Argentina's inflation

Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official statistics have been heavily criticized in recent years. The data were collected between October 2007 and March 2011 from the largest supermarket in each country. In Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela, online price indexes approximate both the level and main dynamics of official inflation. By contrast, Argentina's online inflation rate is nearly three times higher than the official estimate

Prices and Supply Disruptions during Natural Disasters

We study the daily behavior of supermarket prices and product availability following two recent natural disasters: the 2010 earthquake in Chile and the 2011 earthquake in Japan. In both cases there was an immediate and persistent effect on product availability. The number of goods available for sale fell 32 percent in Chile and 17 percent in Japan from the day of the disaster to its lowest point, which occurred 61 and 18 days after the earthquakes, respectively. Product availability recovered slowly, and a significant share of goods remained out of stock after six months. By contrast, prices were relatively stable and did not increase for months after the earthquakes, even for goods that were experiencing severe stockouts. These trends are present at all levels of aggregation, but appear strongly in non-perishable goods and emergency products. Our findings shed light into the determinants of sticky prices in conditions where traditional adjustment costs are less important. In particular, we look at the frequency and magnitudes of price changes in both countries and find that the results in Chile are consistent with pricing models where retailers have fear of “customer anger”. In Japan, by contrast, the evidence suggests a bigger role for supply disruptions that restricted the ability of retailers to re-stock goods after the earthquake

Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913

Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.

The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia

Does membership in a currency union matter for a country’s international relative prices? The answer to this question is critical for thinking about the implications of joining (or exiting) a common currency area. This paper is the first to use high-frequency good-level data to provide evidence that the answer is yes, at least for an important subset of consumption goods. It considers the case of Latvia, which recently dropped its pegged exchange rate and joined the euro zone. The paper analyzes the prices of thousands of differentiated goods sold by Zara, the world’s largest clothing retailer. Price dispersion between Latvia and euro zone countries collapsed swiftly following entry to the euro. The percentage of goods with nearly identical prices in Latvia and Germany increased from 6 to 89 percent. The median size of price differentials declined from 7 percent to zero. If a large number of firms also behave this way, these results suggest that membership in a currency union has significant implications for a country’s real exchange rate

Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate

We use a novel data set of online prices of identical goods sold by four large global retailers in dozens of countries to study good-level real exchange rates and their aggregated behavior. First, in contrast to the prior literature, we demonstrate that the law of one price holds very well within currency unions for tens of thousands of goods sold by each of the retailers, implying good-level real exchange rates often equal to 1. Prices of these same goods exhibit large deviations from the law of one price outside of currency unions, even when the nominal exchange rate is pegged. This clarifies that the common currency per se, and not simply the lack of nominal volatility, is important in reducing cross-country price dispersion. Second, we derive a new decomposition that shows that good-level real exchange rates in our data predominantly reflect differences in prices at the time products are first introduced, as opposed to the component emerging from heterogeneous passthrough or from nominal rigidities during the life of the good. Further, these international relative prices measured at the time of introduction move together with the nominal exchange rate. This stands in sharp contrast to pricing behavior in models where all price rigidity for any given good is due simply to costly price adjustment for that good.University of Chicago. Booth School of Business (Neubauer Family Foundation

Distance and Political Boundaries: Estimating Border Effects under Inequality Constraints

The ‘border effects’ literature finds that political boundaries have a large impact on relative prices across locations. In this paper, we show that the standard empirical specification suffers from selection bias and propose a new methodology based on binned-quantile regressions. We use a novel micro-price dataset from Uruguay and focus on city borders. We find that, when the standard methodology is used, two supermarkets separated by 10 km across two different cities have the same price dispersion as two supermarkets separated by 30 km within the same city, implying that crossing a city border is equivalent to tripling the distance. By contrast, when upper quantiles are used the city border effect disappears. These findings imply that transport cost have been systematically underestimated by the previous literature. Our methodology can be applied to measure any kind of border effect. We illustrate this in the context of online–offline price dispersion to measure an ‘online-border’ effect in the city of Montevideo.Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación (Uruguay) (Grant # ‘FMV_2_2011_1_6318

Radiation background with the CMS RPCs at the LHC

The Resistive Plate Chambers (RPCs) are employed in the CMS Experiment at the LHC as dedicated trigger system both in the barrel and in the endcap. This article presents results of the radiation background measurements performed with the 2011 and 2012 proton-proton collision data collected by CMS. Emphasis is given to the measurements of the background distribution inside the RPCs. The expected background rates during the future running of the LHC are estimated both from extrapolated measurements and from simulation

Web-based monitoring tools for Resistive Plate Chambers in the CMS experiment at CERN

The Resistive Plate Chambers (RPC) are used in the CMS experiment at the trigger level and also in the standard offline muon reconstruction. In order to guarantee the quality of the data collected and to monitor online the detector performance, a set of tools has been developed in CMS which is heavily used in the RPC system. The Web-based monitoring (WBM) is a set of java servlets that allows users to check the performance of the hardware during data taking, providing distributions and history plots of all the parameters. The functionalities of the RPC WBM monitoring tools are presented along with studies of the detector performance as a function of growing luminosity and environmental conditions that are tracked over time

Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth? The Role of Political Institutions

This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of institutions in determining the outcome of crises on long-term growth. Once unobserved country-specific effects and other sources of endogeneity are accounted for, political institutions affect growth through their interaction with crises. The results suggest that only countries with strong democracies, high levels of political competition and external constraints on government can potentially benefit from crises and use them as opportunities to enhance long-term output per capita and productivity growth