Nonlinearities and Parameter Instability in the Finance-Growth Nexus

This paper offers a re-assessment of the finance-growth nexus in a framework that allows to distinguish between short-run versus long-run effects. Our dataset contains information on 45 developed and developing countries over the period 1995-2011. We make use of the integration and cointegration properties of the data, establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita GDP with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial development. We employ these results to specify an error correction model and assess whether the years of crisis have changed the relationship between finance and growth. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

After Two Decades of Integration: How Interdependent are Eastern European Economies and the Euro Area?

This article investigates the interrelations between the initial members of the Euro area and five important Central and Eastern European economies. We set up a theoretical open economy model to derive the Purchasing Power Parity, the Interest Rate Parity, the Fisher Inflation Parity, and an output gap relation. After taking convergence into account, they are used as restrictions on the cointegration space of a structural vector error correction model. We then employ generalized impulse response analysis to assess the dynamic effects of shocks in output and interest rates on the respective other area as well as the implications of shocks in the exchange rate and in relative prices on both areas. The results show a high degree of interconnectedness between the two economies. There are strong positive spillovers in output to the respective other region with the magnitude of the impact being similarly strong in both areas. Furthermore, we find a multiplier effect being present in Eastern Europe and some evidence for the European Central Banks' desire towards price stability. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie

On the (nonmonotonic) relation between economic growth and finance

We analyze the simplest possible model of endogenous growth to account for the role of financial development. In our setting, financial development affects productivity and determines the amount of resources subtracted to capital investment. We show that under very general assumptions, the relation between economic growth and financial depth is nonmonotonic, and eventually bell-shaped. We empirically assess our results in a framework that allows to distinguish between long-run and short-run effects. We establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial depth-relying on linear as well as nonlinear models for the finance-growth nexus. We employ the results of the first step estimation to specify an error-correction model and find that there is strong evidence for a nonlinear relationship between financial depth and per capita GDP, consistently with what was predicted by our theoretical model