Forest transition and urban growth: exploring latent dynamics (1936–2006) in Rome, Italy, using a geographically weighted regression and implications for coastal forest conservation

Peri-urban Mediterranean landscapes preserve high-quality environments with biodiversity strictly dependent on relict forests and mixed agroforest systems. The assessment of long-term land-use changes at the urban-wildland interface is particularly interesting for policies coping with natural land conservation and management. The dynamics of Mediterranean fringe forests were rather mixed over the last century alternating decline due to deforestation and clear-cutting up to World War II and a recovery afterwards. Forest transition theory (FTT) has been used to describe a turnaround in land-use trends for a given territory from a period of net forest area loss to a period of net forest area gain. The present paper analyses forest expansion in Rome’s province in the light of the FTT using diachronic maps, which cover two time intervals (1936–1974 and 1974–2006) corresponding to distinct socioeconomic contexts at the local scale. Our results indicate a slight increase in forest areas along the whole study period owing to natural reforestation following the abandonment of agricultural land and the higher level of forest protection. Geographically weighted regression indicates the growing importance of the urban gradient in forest dynamics. This may reflect settlement dispersion and higher disturbance to forests due to soil sealing, wildland fires, habitat fragmentation, cropland abandonment, and invasive species increase. The tendency towards a more mixed and heterogeneous woodland structure at the urban-wildland interface, especially in coastal areas, should be contrasted through sustainable land management practices integrating urban planning and environmental policies into a unique strategy for the protection of relict agroforest systems

Scattered or polycentric? Untangling urban growth in three southern European metropolitan regions through exploratory spatial data analysis

The present study illustrates an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) aimed at investigating changes in the distribution of built-up areas in three southern European metropolitan regions (Barcelona, Rome and Athens). An approach based on global Moran's indexes of spatial autocorrelations was proposed to assess similarities in the spatial organization of the three regions, based on land-use data for 1960 and 2010. Compact monocentric, scattered low-density and mixed polycentric structures were compared in the three regions using local Moran's indexes computed at two different scales, "urban" (5 km radius) and "regional" (20 km radius). The proposed approach identifies emerging trends in scattered monocentric or polycentric development. Our results outline the trend toward scattered urban expansion for the three cities, with signs of a modest shift toward polycentrism in Barcelona. ESDA provides basic information needed for policies promoting spatially balanced, sustainable development in originally compact and economically segmented regions

Revisiting a hegemonic honcept: long-term ‘Mediterranean urbanization’ in between city re-polarization and metropolitan decline

Urban development in southern Europe differs from urbanization patterns observed in other affluent countries. Urbanization processes in the Mediterranean region reflect heterogeneous spatial forms and more similar socioeconomic dynamics. Rejecting a unique ‘Mediterranean city’ model, this study proposes a thorough analysis of post-war urban development in four southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) focusing on homogeneous patterns and possible sources of heterogeneity in spatio-temporal trends of individual city expansion. Urbanization without industrialization - boosted by the informal economy and the development of traditional services - has driven the growth of large cities through agglomeration economies enhanced by internal immigration. This trend has deflated shortly after the end of the baby boom, favoring slow dynamics towards spatially-balanced settlements and determining a recovery of medium-sized cities, which have been further consolidated with the economic crisis