Martens in the matrix: the importance of nonforested habitats for forest carnivores in fragmented landscapes

The intervening landscape between patches of forest (i.e., matrix) has enormous potential to mitigate the negative effects of forest fragmentation. However, to release this potential requires understanding of how individual species perceive matrix. Here we investigated use of matrix by pine martens (Martes martes) in a region with low forest cover (Scotland). We radiotracked 11 martens to determine their habitat preferences, then combined our data with those published from 5 additional Scottish landscapes to examine how home-range size (i.e., population density) and diet of martens varied with forest edge density (i.e., fragmentation). Our tracking showed that although mature forest was the most preferred habitat, certain matrix habitats (scrub and tussock grassland) also were consistently selected. These 2 habitats provided martens with fundamental resources that are of limited availability within intensively managed plantation forests: den sites and primary prey (Microtus agrestis). Our synthesis of data across landscapes indicated martens benefit from supplemental resources in matrix habitats; consumption of small mammals increased with fragmentation and coincided with an initial increase in marten population densities. However, population densities of martens decreased once fragmentation passed a threshold level. Our results demonstrate that habitat complementation at the landscape-scale is essential for some forest-associated species. Resource supplementation from matrix habitats may be particularly important in regions with a long history of low-forest cover or where forest cover is now dominated by afforested plantations, which may lack essential resources

Simulating the density reduction and equity-impact of potential tobacco retail control policies.

Background: Reducing the provision of tobacco is important for decreasing inequalities in smoking and smoking-related harm. Various policies have been proposed to achieve this, but their impacts—particularly on equity—are often unknown. Here, using national-level data, we simulate the impacts of potential policies designed to reduce tobacco outlet density (TOD). Methods: Tobacco retailer locations (n=9030) were geocoded from Scotland’s national register, forming a baseline. Twelve policies were developed in three types: (1) regulating type of retailer selling tobacco, (2) regulating location of tobacco sales, and (3) area-based TOD caps. Density reduction was measured as mean percentage reduction in TOD across data zones and number of retailers nationally. Equity impact was measured using regression-based Relative Index of Inequality (RII) across income deprivation quintiles. Results: Policies restricting tobacco sales to a single outlet type (‘Supermarket’; ‘Liquor store’; ‘Pharmacy’) caused >80% TOD reduction and >90% reduction in the number of tobacco outlets nationally. However, RIIs indicated that two of these policies (‘Liquor store’, ‘Pharmacy’) increased socioeconomic inequalities in TOD. Equity-promoting policies included ‘Minimum spacing’ and exclusion zones around ‘Child spaces’. The only policy to remove statistically significant TOD inequalities was the one deliberately targeted to do so (‘Reduce clusters’). Conclusions: Using spatial simulations, we show that all selected policies reduced provision of tobacco retailing to varying degrees. However, the most ‘successful’ at doing so also increased inequalities. Consequently, policy-makers should consider how the methods by which tobacco retail density is reduced, and success measured, align with policy aims

Inequalities in children’s exposure to alcohol outlets in Scotland: a GPS study

Background: Alcohol use is a leading cause of harm in young people and increases the risk of alcohol dependence in adulthood. Alcohol use is also a key driver of rising health inequalities. Quantifying inequalities in exposure to alcohol outlets within the activity spaces of pre-adolescent children—a vulnerable, formative development stage—may help understand alcohol use in later life. Methods: GPS data were collected from a nationally representative sample of 10-and-11-year-old children (n = 688, 55% female). The proportion of children, and the proportion of each child’s GPS, exposed to alcohol outlets was compared across area-level income-deprivation quintiles, along with the relative proportion of exposure occurring within 500 m of each child’s home and school. Results: Off-sales alcohol outlets accounted for 47% of children’s exposure, which was higher than expected given their availability (31% of alcohol outlets). The proportion of children exposed to alcohol outlets did not differ by area deprivation. However, the proportion of time children were exposed showed stark inequalities. Children living in the most deprived areas were almost five times more likely to be exposed to off-sales alcohol outlets than children in the least deprived areas (OR 4.83, 3.04–7.66; P < 0.001), and almost three times more likely to be exposed to on-sales alcohol outlets (OR 2.86, 1.11–7.43; P = 0.03). Children in deprived areas experienced 31% of their exposure to off-sales outlets within 500 m of their homes compared to 7% for children from less deprived areas. Children from all areas received 22—32% of their exposure within 500 m of schools, but the proportion of this from off-sales outlets increased with area deprivation. Conclusions: Children have little control over what they are exposed to, so policies that reduce inequities in alcohol availability should be prioritised to ensure that all children have the opportunity to lead healthy lives

Responses of two marine top predators to an offshore wind farm

Quantifying the likely effects of offshore wind farms on wildlife is fundamental before permission for development can be granted by any Determining Authority. The effects on marine top predators from displacement from important habitat are key concerns during offshore wind farm construction and operation. In this respect, we present evidence for no significant displacement from a UK offshore wind farm for two broadly distributed species of conservation concern: common guillemot (Uria aalge) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). Data were collected during boat-based line transect surveys across a 360 km2 study area that included the Robin Rigg offshore wind farm. Surveys were conducted over 10 years across the preconstruction, construction, and operational phases of the development. Changes in guillemot and harbor porpoise abundance and distribution in response to offshore wind farm construction and operation were estimated using generalized mixed models to test for evidence of displacement. Both common guillemot and harbor porpoise were present across the Robin Rigg study area throughout all three development phases. There was a significant reduction in relative harbor porpoise abundance both within and surrounding the Robin Rigg offshore wind farm during construction, but no significant difference was detected between the preconstruction and operational phases. Relative common guillemot abundance remained similar within the Robin Rigg offshore wind farm across all development phases. Offshore wind farms have the potential to negatively affect wildlife, but further evidence regarding the magnitude of effect is needed. The empirical data presented here for two marine top predators provide a valuable addition to the evidence base, allowing future decision making to be improved by reducing the uncertainty of displacement effects and increasing the accuracy of impact assessments

Neighbourhood natural space and the narrowing of socioeconomic inequality in children’s social, emotional, and behavioural wellbeing

Introduction: The natural environment may benefit children's social, emotional and behavioural wellbeing, whilst offering a lever to narrow socioeconomic health inequalities. We investigated whether immediate neighbourhood natural space and private gardens were related to children's wellbeing outcomes and whether these relationships were moderated by household income. Methods: A nationally representative sample of 774 children (55% female, 10/11 years old) from the Studying Physical Activity in Children's Environments across Scotland study. Social, emotional and behavioural difficulty scores (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) represented wellbeing outcomes. Percentage of total natural space and private gardens within 100m of the child's residence was quantified using Ordnance Survey's MasterMap Topography Layer®. Linear regression, including interaction terms, explored the two main research questions. Results: A 10% increase in residential natural space was associated with a 0.08 reduction (-0.15, -0.01; 95%CI) in Emotional Problem scores and a 0.09 improvement (0.02, 0.16; 95%CI) in Prosocial Behaviour scores. Household income moderated the associations between % natural space and private gardens on Prosocial Behaviour scores: for natural space, there was a positive relationship for those in the lowest income quintile (0.25 (0.09, 0.41; 95%CI)) and a null relationship for those in the highest quintile (-0.07 (-0.16, 0.02; 95%CI)). For private garden space, there was a positive relationship for those in the highest quintile (0.15 (0.05, 0.26; 95%CI)) and negative relationship with those in the lowest quintile (-0.30 (-0.50, -0.07, 95%CI)). Conclusion: The natural environment could be a lever to benefit those from less advantaged backgrounds, particularly the development of prosocial behaviours

Exposure to unhealthy product advertising: Spatial proximity analysis to schools and socio-economic inequalities in daily exposure measured using Scottish Children's individual-level GPS data

This study aimed to understand socio-spatial inequalities in the placement of unhealthy commodity advertisements at transportation stops within the Central Belt of Scotland and to measure advertisement exposure using children's individual-level mobility data. We found that children who resided within more deprived areas had greater contact with the transport network and also greater exposure to unhealthy food and drink product advertising, compared to those living in less deprived areas. Individual-level mobility data provide evidence that city- or country-wide restrictions to advertising on the transport network might be required to reduce inequalities in children's exposure to unhealthy commodity advertising

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society

A novel method for targeting survey effort to identify new bat roosts using habitat suitability modelling

In the UK, four out of 18 bat species are listed on the EU Habitats Directive, including the lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros), and their population status is closely monitored by visiting known roosts. R. hipposideros predominantly form maternity roosts in buildings, but roosts are impermanent features in the landscape and their distribution changes as bats form new roosts and abandon others. Locating new roosts requires intensive surveys which are challenging and inefficient. In this study, we provide a novel model-based strategy to identify potential R. hipposideros maternity roost sites that can be used to monitor bat populations. First, we model potential maternity roost habitat using record centre data on roost locations across Wales, Great Britain. We then constrain the area identified from modelling using record centre data on locations of bats in areas with no known roosts. We used two variable selection methods and three pseudo-absence data sets (random background points, random points in buildings and target group selection of mammal records) to produce six habitat suitability models. The three pseudo-absence data sets produced different habitat suitability maps, demonstrating the influence of pseudo-absence selection on species distribution models. The six models were combined using weighted mean average to produce an ensemble model that performed better than individual models and that indicated high levels of congruence in areas predicted to have high habitat suitability for maternity roosts. Our model revealed an extensive area (6523 km 2 ; 31% of the area of Wales) containing 18,051 buildings in suitable habitat. Using record centre data on bat activity outside commuting range from known roosts reduced the potential survey area to 133 km 2 (0.6% of the area of Wales) and 207 buildings. Our modelling outputs can be used to direct volunteers and bat surveyors in more targeted and efficient searches