A possibilistic interpretation of ensemble forecasts: experiments on the imperfect Lorenz 96 system

Abstract. Ensemble forecasting has gained popularity in the field of numerical medium-range weather prediction as a means of handling the limitations inherent to predicting the behaviour of high dimensional, nonlinear systems, that have high sensitivity to initial conditions. Through small strategical perturbations of the initial conditions, and in some cases, stochastic parameterization schemes of the atmosphere-ocean dynamical equations, ensemble forecasting allows one to sample possible future scenarii in a Monte-Carlo like approximation. Results are generally interpreted in a probabilistic way by building a predictive density function from the ensemble of weather forecasts. However, such a probabilistic interpretation is regularly criticized for not being reliable, because of the chaotic nature of the dynamics of the atmospheric system as well as the fact that the ensembles of forecasts are not, in reality, produced in a probabilistic manner. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach: a possibilistic interpretation of ensemble predictions, taking inspiration from fuzzy and possibility theories. Our approach is tested on an imperfect version of the Lorenz 96 model and results are compared against those given by a standard probabilistic ensemble dressing. The possibilistic framework reproduces (ROC curve, resolution) or improves (ignorance, sharpness, reliability) the performance metrics of a standard univariate probabilistic framework. This work provides a first step to answer the question whether probability distributions are the right tool to interpret ensembles predictions. </jats:p

Retrospective Analysis of Wood Anatomical Traits Reveals a Recent Extension in Tree Cambial Activity in Two High-Elevation Conifers

The study of xylogenesis or wood formation is a powerful, yet labor intensive monitoring approach to investigate intra-annual tree growth responses to environmental factors. However, it seldom covers more than a few growing seasons, so is in contrast to the much longer lifespan of woody plants and the time scale of many environmental processes. Here we applied a novel retrospective approach to test the long-term (1926–2012) consistency in the timing of onset and ending of cambial activity, and in the maximum cambial cell division rate in two conifer species, European larch and Norway spruce at high-elevation in the Alps. We correlated daily temperature with time series of cell number and lumen area partitioned into intra-annual sectors. For both species, we found a good correspondence (1–10 days offset) between the periods when anatomical traits had significant correlations with temperature in recent decades (1969–2012) and available xylogenesis data (1996–2005), previously collected at the same site. Yet, results for the 1926–1968 period indicate a later onset and earlier ending of the cambial activity by 6–30 days. Conversely, the peak in the correlation between annual cell number and temperature, which should correspond to the peak in secondary growth rate, was quite stable over time, with just a minor advance of 4–5 days in the recent decades. Our analyses on time series of wood anatomical traits proved useful to infer on past long-term changes in xylogenetic phases. Combined with intensive continuous monitoring, our approach will improve the understanding of tree responses to climate variability in both the short- and long-term context

Charm quenching in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC

D-meson suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC due to charm quark in-medium energy loss is estimated within a model that describes the available quenching measurements at RHIC. The result is compared to that previously published by the author. The expected sensitivity of the ALICE experiment for studying charm energy loss via fully-reconstructed D^0-meson decays is also presented.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. To appear in the proceedings of Hot Quarks 2004: Workshop for Young Scientists on the Physics of Ultrarelativistic Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions, Taos Valley, New Mexico, 18-24 July 2004. Submitted to J. Phys.

Kaon and Φ\Phi production vs Participants in Nuclear Collisions

Data on kaon and $\Phi$ production in nuclear collisions as a function of centrality are analysed both at AGS and SPS energy range. We compare the results of several experiments, looking for common trend in `participant scaling' of production yields. We find a smooth description of scaled kaon and $\Phi$ yields as a function of participant density. We also show a participant density dependence of kaons and $\Phi$ produced in the forward hemisphere for proton-nucleus collisions.Comment: Proceedings of the International Conference on Strangeness in Quark Matter, 20-25 July 2000, Berkeley, CA. To appear in Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physic

Dinamismi e struttura della rinnovazione in tre popolamenti d'alta quota nelle Dolomiti ampezzane

Abstract: Regeneration structures and spatial patterns of European larch (Larix decidua Miller), Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), were analyzed in three high elevation LTER area in the Dolomites (North-Eastern Alps). Larch and spruce regeneration is mainly affected by dense forest cover and grasses competition whereas stone pine is mostly sensitive to late snow melting, fungal diseases and wild ungulate damages. The current stand and regeneration structure suggests that larch has been highly fostered in the past due to silvo-pastoral management practices. All species show a clear tendency to spatial intraspecific aggregation especially at short-distances. The spatial patterns of larch regeneration are more complex than the other two species, more heavily affected by a main factor such as the nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes L.) seed dispersal for stone pine or presence of canopy gaps for spruce. However, spatial patterns of all species depend on the number of the available microsites, that often match at small distance driving the formation of small mixed and unevenaged patches. Combining the age structure and spatial pattern information we were able to better understand the small-scale patterns and processes and the role of the past disturbances on the regeneration dynamics in space and time

Growth form and leaf habit drive contrasting effects of Arctic amplification in long-lived woody species

Current global change is inducing heterogeneous warming trends worldwide, with faster rates at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, tundra vegetation is experiencing an increase in growth rate and uneven but expanding distribution. Yet, the drivers of this heterogeneity in woody species responses are still unclear. Here, applying a retrospective approach and focusing on long-term responses, we aim to get insight into growth trends and climate sensitivity of long-lived woody species belonging to different functional types with contrasting growth forms and leaf habits (shrub vs. tree and deciduous vs. evergreen). A total of 530 samples from 7 species (common juniper, dwarf birch, woolly willow, Norway spruce, lodgepole pine, rowan, and downy birch) were collected in 10 sites across Iceland. We modelled growth trends and contrasted yearly ring-width measurements, filtering in high- and low-frequency components, with precipitation, land- and sea-surface temperature records (1967-2018). Shrubs and trees showed divergent growth trends, with shrubs closely tracking the recent warming, whereas trees, especially broadleaved, showed strong fluctuations but no long-term growth trends. Secondary growth, particularly the high-frequency component, was positively correlated with summer temperatures for most of the species. On the contrary, growth responses to sea surface temperature, especially in the low frequency, were highly diverging between growth forms, with a strong positive association for shrubs and a negative for trees. Within comparable vegetation assemblage, long-lived woody species could show contrasting responses to similar climatic conditions. Given the predominant role of oceanic masses in shaping climate patterns in the Arctic and Low Arctic, further investigations are needed to deepen the knowledge on the complex interplay between coastal tundra ecosystems and land-sea surface temperature dynamics

Quantitative wood anatomy

Quantitative wood anatomy analyzes the variability of xylem anatomical features in trees, shrubs, and herbaceous species to address research questions related to plant functioning, growth, and environment. Among the more frequently considered anatomical features are lumen dimensions and wall thickness of conducting cells, fibers, and several ray properties. The structural properties of each xylem anatomical feature are mostly fixed once they are formed, and define to a large extent its functionality, including transport and storage of water, nutrients, sugars, and hormones, and providing mechanical support. The anatomical features can often be localized within an annual growth ring, which allows to establish intra-annual past and present structure-function relationships and its sensitivity to environmental variability. However, there are many methodological challenges to handle when aiming at producing (large) data sets of xylem anatomical data. Here we describe the different steps from wood sample collection to xylem anatomical data, provide guidance and identify pitfalls, and present different image-analysis tools for the quantification of anatomical features, in particular conducting cells. We show that each data production step from sample collection in the field, microslide preparation in the lab, image capturing through an optical microscope and image analysis with specific tools can readily introduce measurement errors between 5 and 30% and more, whereby the magnitude usually increases the smaller the anatomical features. Such measurement errors—if not avoided or corrected—may make it impossible to extract meaningful xylem anatomical data in light of the rather small range of variability in many anatomical features as observed, for example, within time series of individual plants. Following a rigid protocol and quality control as proposed in this paper is thus mandatory to use quantitative data of xylem anatomical features as a powerful source for many research topics

Can Polarity-Inverted Surfactants Self-Assemble in Nonpolar Solvents

We investigate the self-assembly process of a surfactant with inverted polarity in water and cyclohexane using both all-atom and coarse grained hybrid particle-field molecular dynamics simulations. Unlike conventional surfactants, the molecule under study, proposed in a recent experiment, is formed by a rigid and compact hydrophobic adamantane moiety, and a long and floppy triethylene glycol tail. In water, we report the formation of stable inverted micelles with the adamantane heads grouping together into a hydrophobic core, and the tails forming hydrogen bonds with water. By contrast, microsecond simulations do not provide evidence of stable micelle formation in cyclohexane. Validating the computational results by comparison with experimental diffusion constant and small-angle X-ray scattering intensity, we show that at laboratory thermodynamic conditions the mixture resides in the supercritical region of the phase diagram, where aggregated and free surfactant states co-exist in solution. Our simulations also provide indications about how to escape this region, to produce thermodynamically stable micellar aggregates.Comment: 14 pages, 10 Figures, accepted for publication (2020

Transient Effects of Snow Cover Duration on Primary Growth and Leaf Traits in a Tundra Shrub

With the recent climate warming, tundra ecotones are facing a progressive acceleration of spring snowpack melting and extension of the growing season, with evident consequences to vegetation. Along with summer temperature, winter precipitation has been recently recognised as a crucial factor for tundra shrub growth and physiology. However, gaps of knowledge still exist on long-living plant responses to different snowpack duration, especially on how intra-specific and year-to-year variability together with multiple functional trait adjustments could influence the long-term responses. To fill this gap, we conducted a 3 years snow manipulation experiment above the Alpine treeline on the typical tundra species Juniperus communis, the conifer with the widest distributional range in the north emisphere. We tested shoot elongation, leaf area, stomatal density, leaf dry weight and leaf non-structural carbohydrate content of plants subjected to anticipated, natural and postponed snowpack duration. Anticipated snowpack melting enhanced new shoot elongation and increased stomatal density. However, plants under prolonged snow cover seemed to compensate for the shorter growing period, likely increasing carbon allocation to growth. In fact, these latter showed larger needles and low starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Variability between treatments slightly decreased over time, suggesting a progressive acclimation of juniper to new conditions. In the context of future warming scenarios, our results support the hypothesis of shrub biomass increase within the tundra biome. Yet, the picture is still far from being complete and further research should focus on transient and fading effects of changing conditions in the long term