Performance of machine learning classifiers in classifying stunting among under-five children in Zambia

Stunting is a global public health issue. We sought to train and evaluate machine learning (ML) classification algorithms on the Zambia Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS) dataset to predict stunting among children under the age of five in Zambia. We applied Logistic regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), SV classification (SVC), XG Boost (XgB) and Naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms to predict the probability of stunting among children under five years of age, on the 2018 ZDHS dataset. We calibrated predicted probabilities and plotted the calibration curves to compare model performance. We computed accuracy, recall, precision and F1 for each machine learning algorithm. About 2327 (34.2%) children were stunted. Thirteen of fifty-eight features were selected for inclusion in the model using random forest. Calibrating the predicted probabilities improved the performance of machine learning algorithms when evaluated using calibration curves. RF was the most accurate algorithm, with an accuracy score of 79% in the testing and 61.6% in the training data while Naïve Bayesian was the worst performing algorithm for predicting stunting among children under five in Zambia using the 2018 ZDHS dataset. ML models aids quick diagnosis of stunting and the timely development of interventions aimed at preventing stunting

Seroconversion and Kinetics of Vibriocidal Antibodies during the First 90 Days of Re-Vaccination with Oral Cholera Vaccine in an Endemic Population

Despite the successful introduction of oral cholera vaccines, Zambia continues to experience multiple, sporadic, and protracted cholera outbreaks in various parts of the country. While vaccines have been useful in staying the cholera outbreaks, the ideal window for re-vaccinating individuals resident in cholera hotspot areas remains unclear. Using a prospective cohort study design, 225 individuals were enrolled and re-vaccinated with two doses of Shanchol™, regardless of previous vaccination, and followed-up for 90 days. Bloods were collected at baseline before re-vaccination, at day 14 prior to second dosing, and subsequently on days 28, 60, and 90. Vibriocidal assay was performed on samples collected at all five time points. Our results showed that anti-LPS and vibriocidal antibody titers increased at day 14 after re-vaccination and decreased gradually at 28, 60, and 90 days across all the groups. Seroconversion rates were generally comparable in all treatment arms. We therefore conclude that vibriocidal antibody titers generated in response to re-vaccination still wane quickly, irrespective of previous vaccination status. However, despite the observed decline, the levels of vibriocidal antibodies remained elevated over baseline values across all groups, an important aspect for Zambia where there is no empirical evidence as to the ideal time for re-vaccination

Effect of innate antiviral glycoproteins in breast milk on seroconversion to rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix) in children in Lusaka, Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced into national immunization programmes to mitigate morbidity and mortality associated rotavirus diarrhoea. Lower vaccine effectiveness has however been noted in low-middle income countries, but little is known about the role of maternal components found in breast milk. This study assessed the effect of lactoferrin, lactadherin, and tenascin-c on rotavirus vaccine seroconversion. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 128 infants who had been fully immunized with Rotarix™. Serum samples were collected from the infant at baseline and one month after second rotavirus vaccine dose. Breast milk samples were collected from mothers at baseline. Standard ELISA was used to determine titres of rotavirus-specific immunologlobulin G and A in breast milk and serum as well as concentrations of lactoferrin, lactadherin, and tenascin-c. Poisson regression model with robust standard error was used to estimate the effect of breast milk components on seroconversion. The components were modelled on log base 2 so that the effect would be interpreted as a doubling of the concentration. RESULTS: In a multivariable analysis adjusting for maternal age, maternal HIV status, seropositivity at baseline, sex, age of child at vaccination as well as breast milk IgA and IgG, we found evidence of independent effect of LA (Adjusted IRR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.91-0.99; P = 0.019) on seroconversion while there was no evidence for TNC (Adjusted IRR = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.85-1.17; P = 0.967) and LF (Adjusted RR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.96-1.05); P = 0.802). We explored the joint effects of the three components but we found no evidence (Adjusted RR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.81; P = 0.535). CONCLUSION: High breast milk concentrations of lactadherin might play a role in infant's failure to seroconvert to rotavirus vaccines. Further research to understand this observed association is an important consideration

Comparable exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in young children and healthcare workers in Zambia

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an ongoing global health crisis that has caused large scale morbidity and mortality. We aimed to determine the exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among young children and healthcare workers by measurement of anti-S1 antigen (spike protein) specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) using an in-house optimized indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method. Methods: Plasma samples were collected from cohorts of healthcare workers (n = 287) and young children aged from 6 weeks to 2 years old (n = 150) pre-COVID-19 pandemic between September 2018 and November 2019 and post-COVID-19 pandemic between August and December 2020 were simultaneously tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 S1 specific IgG. The arithmetic mean of natural logarithm-transformed ELISA relative absorbance reading + (3 x standard deviation) of pre-pandemic plasma was used as the cut-off to determine SARS-CoV-2 IgG seropositivity of post-pandemic plasma, Results: There was no reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 S1 antigen detected in pre-pandemic plasma but in post pandemic plasma an 8.0% (23/287) IgG seropositivity in healthcare workers’ and 6.0% (9/150) seropositivity in children aged 2 years old was detected. Conclusions: Comparable levels of SARS-CoV-2 IgG seropositivity in healthcare workers and children suggest widespread exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in Zambia during the first wave of the pandemic. This finding has implications for continued acquisition and transmission of infection in the healthcare setting, household, and wider community

Improving validity of informed consent for biomedical research in Zambia using a laboratory exposure intervention.

BACKGROUND: Complex biomedical research can lead to disquiet in communities with limited exposure to scientific discussions, leading to rumours or to high drop-out rates. We set out to test an intervention designed to address apprehensions commonly encountered in a community where literacy is uncommon, and where complex biomedical research has been conducted for over a decade. We aimed to determine if it could improve the validity of consent. METHODS: Data were collected using focus group discussions, key informant interviews and observations. We designed an intervention that exposed participants to a detailed demonstration of laboratory processes. Each group was interviewed twice in a day, before and after exposure to the intervention in order to assess changes in their views. RESULTS: Factors that motivated people to participate in invasive biomedical research included a desire to stay healthy because of the screening during the recruitment process, regular advice from doctors, free medical services, and trust in the researchers. Inhibiting factors were limited knowledge about samples taken from their bodies during endoscopic procedures, the impact of endoscopy on the function of internal organs, and concerns about the use of biomedical samples. The belief that blood can be used for Satanic practices also created insecurities about drawing of blood samples. Further inhibiting factors included a fear of being labelled as HIV positive if known to consult heath workers repeatedly, and gender inequality. Concerns about the use and storage of blood and tissue samples were overcome by a laboratory exposure intervention. CONCLUSION: Selecting a group of members from target community and engaging them in a laboratory exposure intervention could be a useful tool for enhancing specific aspects of consent for biomedical research. Further work is needed to determine the extent to which improved understanding permeates beyond the immediate group participating in the intervention

Experiences of capacity strengthening in sanitation and hygiene research in Africa and Asia: the SHARE Research Consortium.

The Sanitation and Hygiene Applied Research for Equity (SHARE) Research Programme consortium is a programme funded by the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) that aims to contribute to achieving universal access to effective, sustainable, and equitable sanitation and hygiene worldwide. The capacity development component is an important pillar for this programme and different strategies were designed and implemented during the various phases of SHARE. This paper describes and reflects on the capacity-building strategies of this large multi-country research consortium, identifying lessons learnt and proposing recommendations for future global health research programmes. In the first phase, the strategy focused on increasing the capacity of individuals and institutions from low- and middle-income countries in conducting their own research. SHARE supported six PhD students and 25 MSc students, and organised a wide range of training events for different stakeholders. SHARE peer-reviewed all proposals that researchers submitted through several rounds of funding and offered external peer-review for all the reports produced under the partner's research platforms. In the second phase, the aim was to support capacity development of a smaller number of African research institutions to move towards their independent sustainability, with a stronger focus on early and mid-career scientists within these institutions. In each institution, a Research Fellow was supported and a specific capacity development plan was jointly developed.Strategies that yielded success were learning by doing (supporting institutions and postgraduate students on sanitation and hygiene research), providing fellowships to appoint mid-career scientists to support personal and institutional development, and supporting tailored capacity-building plans. The key lessons learnt were that research capacity-building programmes need to be driven by local initiatives tailored with support from partners. We recommend that future programmes seeking to strengthen research capacity should consider targeted strategies for individuals at early, middle and later career stages and should be sensitive to other institutional operations to support both the research and management capacities

Three transmission events of Vibrio cholerae O1 into Lusaka, Zambia

Cholera has been present and recurring in Zambia since 1977. However, there is a paucity of data on genetic relatedness and diversity of the Vibrio cholerae isolates responsible for these outbreaks. Understanding whether the outbreaks are seeded from existing local isolates or if the outbreaks represent separate transmission events can inform public health decisions. Seventy-two V. cholerae isolates from outbreaks in 2009/2010, 2016, and 2017/2018 in Zambia were characterized using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and whole genome sequencing (WGS). The isolates had eight distinct MLVA genotypes that clustered into three MLVA clonal complexes (CCs). Each CC contained isolates from only one outbreak. The results from WGS revealed both clustered and dispersed single nucleotide variants. The genetic relatedness of isolates based on WGS was consistent with the MLVA, each CC was a distinct genetic lineage and had nearest neighbors from other East African countries. In Lusaka, isolates from the same outbreak were more closely related to themselves and isolates from other countries than to isolates from other outbreaks in other years. Our observations are consistent with i) the presence of random mutation and alternative mechanisms of nucleotide variation, and ii) three separate transmission events of V. cholerae into Lusaka, Zambia. We suggest that locally, case-area targeted invention strategies and regionally, well-coordinated plans be in place to effectively control future cholera outbreaks.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06259-

Mosquito-Borne Viral Pathogens Detected in Zambia: A Systematic Review

Emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne viral diseases are a threat to global health. This systematic review aimed to investigate the available evidence of mosquito-borne viral pathogens reported in Zambia. A search of literature was conducted in PubMed and Google Scholar for articles published from 1 January 1930 to 30 June 2020 using a combination of keywords. Eight mosquito-borne viruses belonging to three families, Togaviridae, Flaviviridae and Phenuiviridae were reported. Three viruses (Chikungunya virus, Mayaro virus, Mwinilunga virus) were reported among the togaviruses whilst four (dengue virus, West Nile virus, yellow fever virus, Zika virus) were among the flavivirus and only one virus, Rift Valley fever virus, was reported in the Phenuiviridae family. The majority of these mosquito-borne viruses were reported in Western and North-Western provinces. Aedes and Culex species were the main mosquito-borne viral vectors reported. Farming, fishing, movement of people and rain patterns were among factors associated with mosquito-borne viral infection in Zambia. Better diagnostic methods, such as the use of molecular tools, to detect the viruses in potential vectors, humans, and animals, including the recognition of arboviral risk zones and how the viruses circulate, are important for improved surveillance and design of effective prevention and control measures

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p<0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p<0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research