Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Role-over

We propose a model of rating agencies that is an application of global game theory in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. The model allows us to explore the impact of the introduction of a rating agency on financial markets. Our model suggests that the addition of the rating agency affects the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals in a non–trivial way, and that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have the unique equilibrium.Credit rating, Rating agency, Sovereign debt, Global game

Creating a Linked Data-Friendly Metadata Application Profile for Archival Description

We provide an overview of efforts to apply and extend Schema.org for archives and archival description. The authors see the application of Schema.org and extensions as a low barrier means to publish easily consumable linked data about archival resources, institutions that hold them, and contextual entities such as people and organizations responsible for their creation.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures; full poster available from http://dcevents.dublincore.org/IntConf/dc-2017/paper/view/50

Will the valuation ratios revert to their historical means? Some evidence from breakpoint tests

If valuation ratios return to their historical means any time soon, then equity prices must fall substantially, or earnings and dividends must accelerate sharply, or some combination of these events must occur. Historical patterns over the past century suggest that stock prices will fall to align valuation ratios with their means. Of course, the means of the valuation ratios could have changed. To assess the likelihood of such changes, the authors employ breakpoint tests, which allow for multiple breakpoints at unknown break dates. The authors also review alternative explanations for changes in the ratios. They conclude that although no single explanation may be convincing by itself, taken in toto with empirical evidence of structural change, the preponderance of evidence suggests that the mean of the dividend-price ratio is now somewhere between 1% and 2%, probably nearer to 1%. They also conclude that the mean price-to-earnings ratio is now somewhere between 20 and 25, perhaps even higher.Stock - Prices

Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll-over

We propose a model of rating agencies that is an application of global game theory in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. The model allows us to explore the impact of the introduction of a rating agency on financial markets. Our model suggests that the addition of the rating agency affects the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals in a non–trivial way, and that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have the unique equilibrium

Black hole evolution by spectral methods

Current methods of evolving a spacetime containing one or more black holes are plagued by instabilities that prohibit long-term evolution. Some of these instabilities may be due to the numerical method used, traditionally finite differencing. In this paper, we explore the use of a pseudospectral collocation (PSC) method for the evolution of a spherically symmetric black hole spacetime in one dimension using a hyperbolic formulation of Einstein's equations. We demonstrate that our PSC method is able to evolve a spherically symmetric black hole spacetime forever without enforcing constraints, even if we add dynamics via a Klein-Gordon scalar field. We find that, in contrast to finite-differencing methods, black hole excision is a trivial operation using PSC applied to a hyperbolic formulation of Einstein's equations. We discuss the extension of this method to three spatial dimensions.Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures, submitted to PR

Recovery of Pure Economic Loss in Product Liability Actions: An Economic Comparison of Three Legal Rules

This Comment argues that in the allocation of pure economic loss caused by product failure, the negligence rule is generally more efficient than a strict liability rule and that a contract rule is almost always more efficient than a negligence rule. Part II presents a general discussion of the attributes of an economically efficient remedy. In Part III, three legal rules used to allocate pure economic loss are scrutinized under the standards set forth in Part II

Recovery of Pure Economic Loss in Product Liability Actions: An Economic Comparison of Three Legal Rules

This Comment argues that in the allocation of pure economic loss caused by product failure, the negligence rule is generally more efficient than a strict liability rule and that a contract rule is almost always more efficient than a negligence rule. Part II presents a general discussion of the attributes of an economically efficient remedy. In Part III, three legal rules used to allocate pure economic loss are scrutinized under the standards set forth in Part II

Post-mining neutralization of acidic surface mine lakes

Twenty core samples and 54 surface sediment samples were taken from surface mine lakes in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana to determine the rates of neutralization of acid mine lakes. Sediment samples were analyzed for diatom microfossils, selected chemical elements, and the radionuclide, lead-210. The surface samples showed that there were strong differences in diatom microfossils between acidic and neutral lakes but there was no strong difference in sediment chemical composition between acidic and neutral lakes. Of 20 lakes from which cores were examined, 9 showed diatom evidence of neutralization and one of acidification over time. Cores from 5 of these were dated using lead-210 analysis. Diatom microfossils showed that neutralization took from less than 3 years to 30 years to occur. Comparisons between lake sediment and water column chemistry indicated that neither sulfide deposition nor H2S outgasing is likely to play a major role in the neutralization process. Chemical analyses of lake sediment showed that the sediment is a sink for heavy metals. These metals are held as sulfides. There is also a considerable fraction of metal ions strongly bound to clays. This research demonstrates that acid lake neutralization is common, that it occurs over moderate time spans and that the rate is controlled by rates of acid supply from the watershed.U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyOpe

Elevated pCO2 enhances bacterioplankton removal of organic carbon.

Factors that affect the removal of organic carbon by heterotrophic bacterioplankton can impact the rate and magnitude of organic carbon loss in the ocean through the conversion of a portion of consumed organic carbon to CO2. Through enhanced rates of consumption, surface bacterioplankton communities can also reduce the amount of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) available for export from the surface ocean. The present study investigated the direct effects of elevated pCO2 on bacterioplankton removal of several forms of DOC ranging from glucose to complex phytoplankton exudate and lysate, and naturally occurring DOC. Elevated pCO2 (1000-1500 ppm) enhanced both the rate and magnitude of organic carbon removal by bacterioplankton communities compared to low (pre-industrial and ambient) pCO2 (250 -~400 ppm). The increased removal was largely due to enhanced respiration, rather than enhanced production of bacterioplankton biomass. The results suggest that elevated pCO2 can increase DOC consumption and decrease bacterioplankton growth efficiency, ultimately decreasing the amount of DOC available for vertical export and increasing the production of CO2 in the surface ocean

Porcine Models of Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths in both men and women. The 5-year survival rate for metastatic pancreatic cancer is only 8%. There remains a need for improved early diagnosis and therapy for pancreatic cancer. Murine models are the current standard for preclinical study of pancreatic cancer. However, mice may not accurately reflect human biology because of a variety of differences between the two species. Remarkably, only 5–8% of anti-cancer drugs that have emerged from preclinical studies and entered clinical studies have ultimately been approved for clinical use. The cause of this poor approval rate is multi-factorial, but may in part be due to use of murine models that have limited accuracy with respect to human disease. Murine models also have limited utility in the development of diagnostic or interventional technology that require a human-sized model. So, at present, there remains a need for improved animal models of pancreatic cancer. The rationale for a porcine model of pancreatic cancer is (i) to enable development of diagnostic/therapeutic devices for which murine models have limited utility; and (ii) to have a highly predictive preclinical model in which anti-cancer therapies can be tested and optimized prior to a clinical trial. Recently, pancreatic tumors were induced in transgenic Oncopigs and porcine pancreatic ductal cells were transformed that contain oncogenic KRAS and p53-null mutations. Both techniques to induce pancreatic tumors in pigs are undergoing further refinement and expansion. The Oncopig currently is commercially available, and it is conceivable that other porcine models of pancreatic cancer may be available for general use in the near future