Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide reliable estimates of the policy model coe¢cients associated with small central bank losses, in particular during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty.Monetary policy, Taylor rule, Real-time data, Great Moderation, Forecasting.

Ship building and repairing in Italy, 1861-1913: national and regional time series

This paper presents the first comprehensive national and regional time-series estimates for ship building and repairing in post-Unification Italy. The path of the national aggregate differs markedly from the extant series, which cover merchant new-construction alone. The regional estimates point to considerable concentration: Liguria accounted for more than half the product, and Campania for almost another quarter. In Liguria, too, this sector represented up to a quarter of total industrial production; elsewhere, and nationally, it was barely significant.Italy, ship building industry, national and regional value added, 1861-1913

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty. Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policy maker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the US, which are on average essentially small.Monetary policy, Model uncertainty, Bayesian model averaging, Unemployment gap, Taylor rule

Inflation Forecasts, monetary policy and unemployment dynamics: evidence from the US and the euro area

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size and the timing of these effects, as well as to quantify the uncertainty relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue and strengthen the case for a policy strategy that takes into account several sources of information. We find that combining inflation forecasts from many models not only yields more accurate forecasts than those of any specific model, but also reduces the uncertainty associated with the real effects of policy decisions. These results are in line with the model-combination approach that central banks already follow when conceiving their strategy. JEL Classification: C53, E24, E37E24, E37, Inflation forecasts, JEL Classification: C53, Model uncertainty, Unemployment

Through the Magnifying Glass: Provincial Aspects of Industrial Growth in Post-Unification Italy

In post-Unification Italy industrialization was ever sharply sub-regional. Initially industry was largely artisanal, and located in the former political capitals; factory industry was instead attracted by the waterfalls of the subalpine Northwest. From the 1880s, as modernization accelerated, industry concentrated: in the Lombard and Piedmontese subalpine provinces with the late-nineteenth-century boom in (protected) textiles, then particularly in Turin and Milan with the engineering boom, and novel energy-transmission, of the belle époque; and in Liguria's Genoa, which captured (subsidized) civil and naval shipbuilding. The only significant diffusion came as (newly protected) beet-sugar-extraction spread throughout Emilia.Italy, pre-1913, regional industrialization

Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data

This paper explores the role of model and vintage combination in forecasting, with a novel approach that exploits the information contained in the revision history of a given variable. We analyse the forecast performance of eleven widely used models to predict inflation and GDP growth, in the three dimensions of accuracy, uncertainty and stability by using the real-time data set for macroeconomists developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Instead of following the common practice of investigating only therelationship between first available and fully revised data, we analyse the entire revision history for each variable and extract a signal from the entire distribution of vintages of a given variable to improve forecast accuracy and precision. The novelty of our study relies on the interpretation of the vintages of a real time data base as related realizations or units of a panel data set. The results suggest that imposing appropriate weights on competing models of inflation forecasts and output growth — reflecting the relative ability each model has over different sub-sample periods — substantially increases the forecast performance. More interestingly, our results indicate that augmenting the information set with a signal extracted from all available vintages of time-series consistently leads to a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy, precision and stability. JEL Classification: C32, C33, C53data and model uncertainty, forecast combination, real-time data

The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policy maker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the US, which are on average essentially small. JEL Classification: C11, E24, E52, E58Bayesian model averaging, Model uncertainty, monetary policy, Taylor rule, Unemployment gap

Construction in Italy's regions, 1861-1913

This paper presents time-series estimates of construction activity in the regions of post-Unification Italy. Total construction followed very different time paths, reflecting the sharply local cycles in railway construction. Other public works were less idiosyncratic; the boom of the Giolitti years was widely diffused, but that of the 1880s was much more concentrated in Latium and Liguria. In the construction of buildings, the Giolittian boom was marked in the North and Center, but spotty in the South and major islands; earlier swings were comparatively minor, save of course for the 1880s bubble in Latium. Over the long term, railway construction was, per-capita, relatively evenly spread. Other social-overhead construction displays a similar pattern, but with exceptionally high levels in Latium and Liguria. Building construction seems instead to have declined somewhat from North to South; Liguria was again the overall leader, with Latium second.

METALMAKING IN ITALY, 1861-1913: NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TIME SERIES

This paper presents national and regional time-series estimates of metalmaking production in post-Unification Italy. The former broadly confirm their immediate predecessors; the latter are altogether new. The regional series evidence the industry's geographic concentration: the significant producers were Piedmont, Liguria, Lombardy, Tuscany, Umbria, and Campania, but production per capita significantly exceeded the national average only in Liguria and, in the later years, in Umbria and Tuscany.

Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset.

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide reliable estimates of the policy model coefficients associated with small central bank losses, in particular during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty.monetary policy, Taylor rule, real-time data, great moderation, forecasting