Recursive estimation of possibly misspecified MA(1) models: Convergence of a general algorithm

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses Pseudolinear Regression (PLR--also referred to as AML and $RML_1$) and Recursive Maximum Likelihood ($RML_2$) without monitoring. Stimulated by the approach of Hannan (1980), our convergence results are obtained indirectly by showing that the recursive sequence can be approximated by a sequence satisfying a recursion of simpler (Robbins-Monro) form for which convergence results applicable to our situation have recently been obtained.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000932 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

As deadly as armed conflict? Gang violence and forced displacement in the Northern Triangle of Central America

The flurry of interest around the European refugee crisis, whilst plainly justified, should not have the effect of distracting international attention from equally pressing humanitarian and refugee crises in other parts of the world. As such, this article highlights the extreme nature and scale of gang violence in the Northern Triangle countries of Central America, which has resulted in substantial forced displacement of affected populations. The article argues that, despite certain commonalities with situations of internal armed conflict (such as Syria), the scenario in the Northern Triangle poses a distinct set of additional challenges for ensuring the protection of refugees and displaced persons from these countries. The urgent need to address these challenges in the Americas is no less than for those presented by the current refugee crisis in Europe

Extraterritorial non-refoulement: intersections between human rights and refugee law

How does international law require States acting outside their own territories to treat refugees and other persons fleeing harm in their countries?1 This question has assumed increasing contemporary relevance in light of heightened externalised border controls, such as attempts by States to interdict migrant boats on the high seas in the Mediterranean (see, for instance Moreno-Lax 2012). However, the issue also arises in other contemporary scenarios, such as where persons seek protection in diplomatic or consular premises, where one State militarily occupies the territory of another, and where a State sets up a system for the extraterritorial processing of asylum claims. This short analysis addresses the non-refoulement aspect of this extraterritoriality problem, i.e. protection against enforced removal to a territory where the person fears harm by a State acting outside its own territory. Inspired by the human rights focus of the volume overall, the chapter draws on current research by the author in order to examine this ever-topical concern against recent advances in the field of international human rights law. It not only confirms the view that the non-refoulement rule in human rights law applies extraterritorially, but also concludes that the resulting procedural implications should be taken seriously both for human rights law and for refugee la