Participation in Cervical Screening by Older Asian and Middle Eastern Migrants in New South Wales, Australia

Background: There is little information on the detailed patterns of cervical screening uptake in older migrant women in Australia. This linkage study was performed to assess cervical screen-ing participation in older migrants.Methods: We linked year 2000-2001 records for 14,228 Middle Eastern/Asian-born women 40-64 years of age, and an age and area matched random sample of 13,939 Australian-born wom-en in the New South Wales (NSW) Admitted Patients Data Collection (APDC), which records country of birth, to screening register records. Screening behaviour after 1st July 2001 was as-sessed in women without a recorded prior cervical abnormalityResults: Compared to Australian-born women, women born in South Central Asia had a low-er screening participation rate (odds ratio for being screened at least once within a 3 year period 0.78, 95% CI 0.70-0.88). However, participation appeared relatively higher (17%-25%) in women born in the Middle East or other parts of Asia. Screening increased with increasing socioeconom-ic status (SES) in Australian-born women, but this trend was not observed in the migrant wom-en. When we broadly corrected for hysterectomy, the apparent excess of screening in women from the Middle East and other parts of Asia was substantially eliminated and in contrast, the apparent deficiency in screening in women from South Central Asia increased.Conclusions: Older women from the Middle East, and North East and South East Asian countries appeared to have similar overall screening participation to that of Australian-born women. Women from South Central Asia appeared less likely than Australian-born women to participate in cervical screening at the recommended interval

A survey of population-based utility scores for cervical cancer prevention

BACKGROUND: With human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination introduced in a number of countries, there is considerable interest in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV testing as the primary cervical screening test in these settings. However, the availability of utility scores for these newer interventions is limited. Our aim in this paper is to present utility scores for HPV vaccination, HPV testing and cytology based screening states among women targeted for cervical screening. METHODS: We invited a random sample of women targeted for cervical screening (aged 20-69 years) living in Sydney, Australia, to participate in a face-to-face interview. Participants were asked to indicate preferences (rank and utility scores) for 10 hypothetical health states relating to HPV vaccination, cytology and primary HPV screening, cervical precursor disease and early stage cervical cancer. Preferences for hypothetical health states were measured through ranking then a two-stage standard gamble. Each participant’s own health state was measured as a utility score using the EQ5D. Potential differences by age were assessed using the Wilcox Rank Sum test. RESULTS: A maximum of 276 women were contacted, of which 43 (mean age 49 years) agreed to be interviewed (15.6%). The overall health state of women as measured by the EQ5D was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.89). Of the 10 health states, the highest ranked were ‘normal cytology’ and ‘HPV vaccination’ (equal 1(st)). States involving an HPV positive result with a subsequent normal cytology or colposcopy were ranked below those for low grade cytological abnormalities with or without a subsequent colposcopic normal result (ranks 3-4 vs. 4-5). However, mean utility scores were broadly similar for all health states, except cervical cancer. No significant differences in scores were identified between age groups. CONCLUSION: Our survey suggests health states relating to HPV testing are ranked below ‘low grade cytology’ disease abnormalities. However, this difference was minimal on the utility scale, as most values for health states were largely clustered. These results provide a preliminary set of non-clinic population-based utilities that may be used with other values to explore the economic implications of introducing HPV testing as a primary screening tool in the context of HPV vaccination. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1756-0500-7-899) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Type-specific oncogenic human papillomavirus infection in high grade cervical disease in New Zealand

BACKGROUND: The national Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Immunisation Programme in New Zealand was introduced in 2008, and involves routine vaccination of girls 12–13 years with a catch-up for females aged up to 19 years. The aims of this study were to measure the pre-vaccination prevalence of oncogenic HPV infection in women aged 20–69 years who were participating in the New Zealand National Cervical Screening Programme (NZ-NCSP) and who were: (1) referred with high grade cytology with a subsequent histologically-confirmed high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3) or adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS); or (2) were in the wider group of women who had a cytological prediction of high grade squamous disease or glandular abnormality (ASC-H/ HSIL+/AGC/AIS). METHODS: Women aged 20–69 years appearing on the NZ-NCSP register between August 2009-February 2011 with a cytology record of ASC-H/HSIL+/AGC/AIS were invited to participate in the study. Liquid-based cytology specimens were tested for 37 HPV types using Linear Array genotyping. The prevalence of type-specific HPV infection was reported within women with histologically-confirmed CIN 2/3 and within the wider group with ASC-H/HSIL+/AGC/AIS cytology. Age-specific trends for the relative proportion of HPV 16/18 vs. other oncogenic types in CIN2/3 were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 594 women with ASC-H/HSIL+/AGC/AIS cytology and a valid HPV test were recruited; of these 356 (60%) had confirmed CIN2/3 and 6 (1%) had confirmed AIS or glandular dysplasia. Positivity rates for any oncogenic HPV infection and for HPV16 and/or 18 within confirmed CIN2/3-AIS were 95% (95%CI: 92-97%) and 60% (54-65%) respectively; in all women with ASC-H/HSIL+/AGC/AIS cytology it was 87% (84-89%) and 53% (49-57%), respectively. The most common reported HPV types in women with CIN 2/3 were 16 (51%), 52 (19%), 31 (17%), 33 (13%) and 18 (12%). A trend for higher rates of HPV 16/18 infection compared to other oncogenic types was observed in younger women (p=0.0006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HPV 16/18 in confirmed high grade disease in New Zealand is comparable to that observed in Australia and European countries. Test positivity rates for type 52 appear higher than in comparable studies in other developed countries. A greater proportion of high grade lesions in younger women appear to be associated with HPV 16/18 infection

Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan : a modelling study

Funding National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. Acknowledgments This study was part-funded via the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control (C4; 1135172) and a grant-in-aid from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (16K15367).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of primary human papillomavirus cervical screening in England: extended follow-up of the ARTISTIC randomised trial cohort through three screening rounds.

BACKGROUND: The ARTISTIC (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology) trial originally reported after two rounds of primary cervical screening with human papillomavirus (HPV). Extended follow-up of the randomised trial cohort through a third round could provide valuable insight into the duration of protection of a negative HPV test, which could allow extended screening intervals. If HPV primary screening is to be considered in the national programme, then determining its cost-effectiveness is key, and a detailed economic analysis using ARTISTIC data is needed. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine the round 3 and cumulative rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse (2+) and CIN grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) between the revealed and concealed arms of ARTISTIC after three screening rounds over 6 years. (2) To compare the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ over three screening rounds following negative screening cytology with that following negative baseline HPV. (3) To determine whether or not HPV screening could safely extend the screening interval from 3 to 6 years. (4) To study the potential clinical utility of an increased cut-off of 2 relative light unit/mean control (RLU/Co) for Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and HPV genotyping in primary cervical screening. (5) To determine the potential impact of HPV vaccination with Cervarix™ in terms of preventing abnormal cytology and CIN2+. (6) To determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening compared with current practice using cervical cytology in England. DESIGN: The ARTISTIC study cohort was recalled for a third round of screening 3 years after round 2 and 6 years following their enrolment to the study. Both arms of the original trial used a single protocol during round 3. SETTING: ARTISTIC study cohort undergoing cervical screening in primary care in Greater Manchester, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Between July 2007 and September 2009, 8873 women participated in round 3; 6337 had been screened in round 2 and 2536 had not been screened since round 1. INTERVENTIONS: All women underwent liquid-based cytology and HPV testing and genotyping. Colposcopy was offered to women with moderate dyskaryosis or worse and with HPV-positive mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes. Women with negative cytology or HPV-negative mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes were returned to routine recall. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Principal outcomes were cumulative rates of CIN2+ over three screening rounds by cytology and HPV status at entry; HPV type specific rates of CIN2+; effect of age on outcomes correlated with cytology and HPV status; comparison of HC2 cut-off RLU/Co of both 1 and 2; and cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months in round 3. Over the three screening rounds, there was no significant difference in CIN2+ [odds ratio (OR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89 to 1.26, p = 0.5)] or CIN3+ (OR: 0.90, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.14, p = 0.4) rates between the trial arms (revealed vs. concealed). Overall, 16% of women were HC2 positive at entry, decreasing from 40% in women aged 20-24 years to around 7% in women aged over 50 years. Abnormal cytology rates at entry were 13% for borderline+ and 2% for moderate+ cytology. Following positive cytology at entry, the cumulative rate of CIN2+ was 20.5%, and was 20.1% following a HPV-positive result at baseline. The cumulative CIN2+ rate for women who were HPV negative at baseline was only 0.87% (95% CI 0.70% to 1.06%) after three rounds of screening, significantly lower than that for women with negative cytology, which was 1.41% (95% CI 1.19% to 1.65%). Women who were HPV negative at baseline had similar protection from CIN2+ after 6 years as women who were cytology negative at baseline after 3 years. Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate at 6 years of 7.7%, significantly higher than that for women who were cytology positive/HPV negative (3.2%). Women who were HPV type 16 positive at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate over three rounds of 43.6% compared with 20.1% for any HPV-positive test. Using a HC2 cut-off of RLU/Co ≥ 2 would maintain acceptable sensitivity and result in 16% fewer HPV-positive results. Typing data suggested that around 55-60% of high-grade cytology and CIN2+, but less than 25% of low-grade cytology, would be prevented by HPV vaccine given current rates of coverage in the UK national programme. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, most of the primary HPV strategies examined where HPV was used as the sole primary test were cost saving in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts under baseline cost assumptions, with a 7-18% reduction in annual screening-associated costs in unvaccinated cohorts and a 9-22% reduction for vaccinated cohorts. Utilising partial genotyping at the primary screening stage to identify women with HPV 16/18 and referring them to colposcopy was the most effective strategy (barring co-testing, which is significantly more costly than any other strategies considered), resulting in 83 additional life-years per 100,000 women for unvaccinated women when compared with current practice, and similar life-years saved compared with current practice for vaccinated women. In unvaccinated cohorts, however, this genotyping strategy is predicted to result in a 20% increase in the number of colposcopies performed in England, although in vaccinated cohorts the number of colposcopy referrals was predicted to be lower than in current practice. For all strategies in which HPV is used as the sole primary screening test, decreasing the follow-up interval for intermediate-risk women from 24 to 12 months increased the overall effectiveness of primary HPV screening. In exploratory analysis, strategies for which cytology screening was retained until either age 30 or 35 years, and for which HPV testing was used at older ages, were predicted to be of higher costs and intermediate effectiveness than those associated with full implementation of primary HPV screening from age 25 years. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution as it depends on assumptions made about screening behaviour and compliance with recommendations at the 'switch over' point. CONCLUSIONS: HPV testing as an initial screen was significantly more protective over three rounds (6 years) than the current practice of cytology and the use of primary HPV screening could allow a safe lengthening of the screening interval. A substantial decrease in high-grade cytology and CIN2+ can be expected as a consequence of the HPV vaccination programme. A HC2 cut-off of 2RLU/Co instead of the manufacturer's recommended cut-off of 1 would be clinically beneficial in terms of an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity. Modelled analysis predicts that primary HPV screening would be both more effective and cost saving compared with current practice with cervical cytology for a number of potential strategies in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. Compliance with surveillance and optimal management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women after primary HPV screening is of key importance. Limitations of the economic investigation included the need to make assumptions around compliance with screening attendance and follow-up for longer screening intervals in the future, assumptions regarding maintenance of current uptake vaccination in the future, and assumptions regarding the stability of cost of HPV and cytology tests in the future. Detailed sensitivity analysis across a range of possible assumptions was conducted to address these issues. This study and the economic evaluation lend support to convert from cytology to HPV-based screening. Future work should include researching (i) the attitudes of women who test HPV positive/cytology negative, (ii) the value of complementary biomarkers and (iii) activities relevant to primary HPV screening in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations from the point of view of QALY assessment. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25417821

Expenditure and resource utilisation for cervical screening in Australia

BACKGROUND The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that women aged 18-69 years are screened with conventional cytology every 2 years. Publicly funded HPV vaccination was introduced in 2007, and partly as a consequence, a renewal of the screening program that includes a review of screening recommendations has recently been announced. This study aimed to provide a baseline for such a review by quantifying screening program resource utilisation and costs in 2010. METHODS A detailed model of current cervical screening practice in Australia was constructed and we used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry to model age-specific compliance with screening and follow-up. We applied model-derived rate estimates to the 2010 Australian female population to calculate costs and numbers of colposcopies, biopsies, treatments for precancer and cervical cancers in that year, assuming that the numbers of these procedures were not yet substantially impacted by vaccination. RESULTS The total cost of the screening program in 2010 (excluding administrative program overheads) was estimated to be A$194.8M. We estimated that a total of 1.7 million primary screening smears costing$96.7M were conducted, a further 188,900 smears costing $10.9M were conducted to follow-up low grade abnormalities, 70,900 colposcopy and 34,100 histological evaluations together costing$21.2M were conducted, and about 18,900 treatments for precancerous lesions were performed (including retreatments), associated with a cost of $45.5M for treatment and post-treatment follow-up. We also estimated that$20.5M was spent on work-up and treatment for approximately 761 women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. Overall, an estimated $23 was spent in 2010 for each adult woman in Australia on cervical screening program-related activities. CONCLUSIONS Approximately half of the total cost of the screening program is spent on delivery of primary screening tests; but the introduction of HPV vaccination, new technologies, increasing the interval and changing the age range of screening is expected to have a substantial impact on this expenditure, as well as having some impact on follow-up and management costs. These estimates provide a benchmark for future assessment of the impact of changes to screening program recommendations to the costs of cervical screening in Australia

Multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates and projections, Australia, 1982–2043:a statistical modelling study

Objectives: To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982–2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019–2043. Study design: Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data. Setting: Australia, 1982–2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043. Main outcome measures: Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982–2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age–period–cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method). Results: The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982–2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006–2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7–2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990–2018 (APC, –0.4%; 95% CI, –0.5% to –0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018–2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4–10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6–3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years. Conclusion: Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.</p

Association of ten gastrointestinal and other medical conditions with positivity to faecal occult blood testing in routine screening:a large prospective study of women in England

Background: In 2006, the Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) in England began offering biennial faecal occult blood testing (FOBt) at ages 60-69 years. Although FOBt is aimed at detecting colorectal neoplasms, other conditions can affect the result. In a large UK prospective study, we examined associations, both before and after screening, between FOBt-positivity and 10 conditions that are often associated with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: By electronically linking BCSP and Million Women Study records, we identified 604,495 women without prior colorectal cancer who participated in their first routine FOBt screening between 2006 and 2012. Regression models, using linked national hospital admission records, yielded adjusted relative risks (RRs) in FOBt-positive versus FOBt-negative women for colorectal cancer, adenoma, diverticular disease, inflammatory bowel disease, haemorrhoids, upper gastrointestinal cancer, oesophagitis, peptic ulcer, anaemia and other haematological disorders. Findings: RRs in FOBt-positive versus FOBt-negative women were 201.3 for colorectal cancer and 197.9 for adenoma within 12 months after screening and 3.5 and 4.9, respectively, 12-24 months after screening; pand#60;0.001 for all RRs. Within 12 months after screening, the RR for inflammatory bowel disease was 26.3, and ranged from 2 to 5 for upper gastrointestinal or haematological disorders. The RRs of being diagnosed with any of the 8 conditions other than colorectal neoplasms before screening and in the 12-24 months after screening, were 1.81 and 1.92, respectively. Conclusions: While fOBt-positivity is associated with a substantially increased risk of colorectal neoplasms after screening, eight other gastrointestinal and haematological conditions are associated with FOBt-positivity, both before and after screening

Identifying incident colorectal and lung cancer cases in health service utilisation databases in Australia: a validation study

Data from centralised, population-based statutory cancer registries are generally considered the 'gold standard' for confirming incident cases of cancer. When these are not available, or more current information is needed, hospital or other routinely collected population-level data may be feasible alternative sources. We aimed to determine the validity of various methods using routinely collected administrative health data for ascertaining incident cases of colorectal or lung cancer in participants from the 45 and Up Study in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: For 266,844 participants in the 45 and Up Study (recruited 2006-2009) ascertainment of incident colorectal or lung cancers was assessed using diagnosis and treatment records in linked administrative health datasets (hospital, emergency department, Medicare and pharmaceutical claims, death records). This was compared with ascertainment via the NSW Cancer Registry (NSWCR, the 'gold standard') for a period for which both data sources were available for participants. RESULTS: A total of 2253 colorectal and 1019 lung cancers were recorded for study participants in the NSWCR over the period 2006-2010. A diagnosis of primary cancer recorded in the statewide Admitted Patient Data Collection identified the majority of NSWCR colorectal and lung cancers, with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 95% and 91% for colorectal cancer and 81% and 85% for lung cancer, respectively. Using additional information on lung cancer deaths from death records increased sensitivity to 84% (PPV 83%) for lung cancer, but did not improve ascertainment of colorectal cancers. Hospital procedure codes for colorectal cancer surgery identified cases with sensitivity 81% and PPV 54%. No other individual indicator had sensitivity >50% or PPV >65% for either cancer type and no combination of indicators increased both the sensitivity and PPV above that achieved using the hospital cancer diagnosis data. All specificities were close to 100%; 95% confidence intervals for sensitivity and PPV were generally +/-2%. CONCLUSIONS: In NSW, identifying new cases of colorectal and lung cancer from administrative health datasets, such as hospital records, is a feasible alternative when cancer registry data are not available. However, the strengths and limitations of the different data sources should be borne in mind

Recent declines in breast cancer incidence: mounting evidence that reduced use of menopausal hormones is largely responsible

Substantial reductions in breast cancer incidence in women 50 years old or older have been observed recently in many developed countries, and falling use of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) remains the most plausible explanation. In keeping with recent observations from the Women's Health Initiative, a report from the California Teachers Study cohort in this issue of Breast Cancer Research adds to this growing evidence. The investigators found a 26% reduction in invasive breast cancer in the cohort from 2000-2002 to 2003-2005, which accompanied an estimated 64% drop in HT use between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006. By collating individual data on the use of HT and breast cancer incidence, they also demonstrated that the decline in incidence was concentrated in women who had ceased HT use. The decline reflected a decrease predominantly in oestrogen receptor-positive tumours in the context of stable screening patterns over the study period. Millions of women continue to use HT, and these findings support carefully targeted short duration use as an important ongoing strategy to minimise breast cancer risk