Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. <br><br> Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation

Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research

BACKGROUND: An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. METHODS: Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. RESULTS: There was good support for a refinement of the framework comprising 14 domains of theoretical constructs (average silhouette value 0.29): 'Knowledge', 'Skills', 'Social/Professional Role and Identity', 'Beliefs about Capabilities', 'Optimism', 'Beliefs about Consequences', 'Reinforcement', 'Intentions', 'Goals', 'Memory, Attention and Decision Processes', 'Environmental Context and Resources', 'Social Influences', 'Emotions', and 'Behavioural Regulation'. CONCLUSIONS: The refined Theoretical Domains Framework has a strengthened empirical base and provides a method for theoretically assessing implementation problems, as well as professional and other health-related behaviours as a basis for intervention development

Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?

Abstract. The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation

Genetic relatedness of infecting and reinfecting respiratory syncytial virus strains identified in a birth cohort from rural Kenya

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) reinfects individuals repeatedly. The extent to which this is a consequence of RSV antigenic diversity is unclear. Methods: Six-hundred thirty-five children from rural Kenya were closely monitored for RSV infection from birth through 3 consecutive RSV epidemics. RSV infections were identified by immunofluorescence testing of nasal washing samples collected during acute respiratory illnesses, typed into group A and B, and sequenced in the attachment (G) protein. A positive sample separated from a previous positive by ≥14 days was defined as a reinfection a priori. Results: Phylogenetic analysis was undertaken for 325 (80%) of 409 identified infections, including 53 (64%) of 83 reinfections. Heterologous group reinfections were observed in 28 episodes, and homologous group reinfections were observed in 25 episodes; 10 involved homologous genotypes, 5 showed no amino acid changes, and 3 were separated by 21–24 days and were potentially persistent infections. The temporal distribution of genotypes among reinfections did not differ from that of single infections. Conclusions: The vast majority of infection and reinfection pairs differed by group, genotype, or G amino acid sequence (ie, comprised distinct viruses). The extent to which this is a consequence of immune memory of infection history or prevalent diversity remains unclear

Identification of group B respiratory syncytial viruses that lack the 60-nucleotide duplication after six consecutive epidemics of total BA dominance at coastal Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus BA genotype has reportedly replaced other group B genotypes worldwide. We report the observation of three group B viruses, all identical in G sequence but lacking the BA duplication, at a coastal district hospital in Kenya in early 2012. This follows a period of six consecutive respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics with 100% BA dominance among group B isolates. The new strains appear only distantly related to BA variants and to previously circulating SAB1 viruses last seen in the district in 2005, suggesting that they were circulating elsewhere undetected. These results are of relevance to an understanding of RSV persistence

Kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response to respiratory syncytial virus infections in a birth cohort

The kinetics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) neutralizing antibodies following birth, primary and secondary infections are poorly defined. The aims of the study were to measure and compare neutralizing antibody responses at different time points in a birth cohort followed-up over three RSV epidemics. Rural Kenyan children, recruited at birth between 2002 and 2003, were monitored for RSV infection over three epidemic seasons. Cord and 3-monthly sera, and acute and convalescent sera following RSV infection, were assayed in 28 children by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). Relative to the neutralizing antibody titers of pre-exposure control sera (1.8 log10 PRNT), antibody titers following primary infection were (i) no different in sera collected between 0 and 0.4 months post-infection (1.9 log10 PRNT, P = 0.146), (ii) higher in sera collected between 0.5 and 0.9 (2.8 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001), 1.0–1.9 (2.5 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001), and 2.0–2.9 (2.3 log10 PRNT, P < 0.001) months post-infection, and (iii) no different in sera collected at between 3.0 and 3.9 months post-infection (2.0 log10 PRNT, P = 0.052). The early serum neutralizing response to secondary infection (3.02 log10 PRNT) was significantly greater than the early primary response (1.9 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001). Variation in population-level virus transmission corresponded with changes in the mean cohort-level neutralizing titers. It is concluded that following primary RSV infection the neutralizing antibody response declines to pre-infection levels rapidly (∼3 months) which may facilitate repeat infection. The kinetics of the aggregate levels of acquired antibody reflect seasonal RSV occurrence, age, and infection history

The level and duration of RSV-specific maternal IgG in infants in Kilifi Kenya

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major cause of lower respiratory tract infection in infants. The rate of decay of RSV-specific maternal antibodies (RSV-matAb), the factors affecting cord blood levels, and the relationship between these levels and protection from infection are poorly defined. Methods A birth cohort (n = 635) in rural Kenya, was studied intensively to monitor infections and describe age-related serological characteristics. RSV specific IgG antibody (Ab) in serum was measured by the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in cord blood, consecutive samples taken 3 monthly, and in paired acute and convalescent samples. A linear regression model was used to calculate the rate of RSV-matAb decline. The effect of risk factors on cord blood titres was investigated. Results The half-life of matAb in the Kenyan cohort was calculated to be 79 days (95% confidence limits (CL): 76–81 days). Ninety seven percent of infants were born with RSV-matAb. Infants who subsequently experienced an infection in early life had significantly lower cord titres of anti-RSV Ab in comparison to infants who did not have any incident infection in the first 6 months (P = 0.011). RSV infections were shown to have no effect on the rate of decay of RSV-matAb. Conclusion Maternal-specific RSV Ab decline rapidly following birth. However, we provide evidence of protection against severe disease by RSV-matAb during the first 6–7 months. This suggests that boosting maternal-specific Ab by RSV vaccination may be a useful strategy to consider

Coevolved Multidrug-Resistant HIV-1 Protease and Reverse Transcriptase Influences Integrase Drug Susceptibility and Replication Fitness

Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (InSTIs) are recommended agents in first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We examined the evolution of drug resistance mutations throughout HIV-1 pol and the effects on InSTI susceptibility and viral fitness. We performed single-genome sequencing of full-length HIV-1 pol in a highly treatment-experienced patient, and determined drug susceptibility of patient-derived HIV-1 genomes using a phenotypic assay encompassing full-length pol gene. We show the genetic linkage of multiple InSTI-resistant haplotypes containing major resistance mutations at Y143, Q148 and N155 to protease inhibitor (PI) and reverse transcriptase inhibitor (RTI) resistance mutations. Phenotypic analysis of viruses expressing patient-derived IN genes with eight different InSTI-resistant haplotypes alone or in combination with coevolved protease (PR) and RT genes exhibited similar levels of InSTI susceptibility, except for three haplotypes that showed up to 3-fold increases in InSTI susceptibility (p ≤ 0.032). The replicative fitness of most viruses expressing patient-derived IN only significantly decreased, ranging from 8% to 56% (p ≤ 0.01). Interestingly, the addition of coevolved PR + RT significantly increased the replicative fitness of some haplotypes by up to 73% (p ≤ 0.024). Coevolved PR + RT contributes to the susceptibility and viral fitness of patient-derived IN viruses. Maintaining patients on failing cART promotes the selection of fitter resistant strains, and thereby limits future therapy options

Forbush decreases and turbulence levels at CME fronts

We seek to estimate the average level of MHD turbulence near coronal mass ejection (CME) fronts as they propagate from the Sun to the Earth. We examine the cosmic ray data from the GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope at Ooty, together with the data from other sources for three well observed Forbush decrease events. Each of these events are associated with frontside halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and near-Earth magnetic clouds. In each case, we estimate the magnitude of the Forbush decrease using a simple model for the diffusion of high energy protons through the largely closed field lines enclosing the CME as it expands and propagates from the Sun to the Earth. We use estimates of the cross-field diffusion coefficient $D_{\perp}$ derived from published results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic rays propagating through turbulent magnetic fields. Our method helps constrain the ratio of energy density in the turbulent magnetic fields to that in the mean magnetic fields near the CME fronts. This ratio is found to be $\sim$ 2% for the 11 April 2001 Forbush decrease event, $\sim$ 6% for the 20 November 2003 Forbush decrease event and $\sim$ 249% for the much more energetic event of 29 October 2003.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics. (Abstract abridged) Typos correcte