Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence - commentary

Employment (Economic theory) ; Investments ; Productivity

Competition in Large Markets

This paper develops a simple and robust implication of free entry followed by competition without substantial strategic interactions: Increasing the number of consumers leaves the distributions of producers' prices and other choices unchanged. In many models featuring non-trivial strategic considerations, producers' prices fall as their numbers increase. Hence, examining the relationship between market size and producers' actions provides a nonparametric tool for empirically discriminating between these distinct approaches to competition. To illustrate its application, I examine observations of restaurants' seating capacities, exit decisions, and prices from 224 U.S. cities. Given factor prices and demographic variables, increasing a city's size increases restaurants' capacities, decreases their exit rate, and decreases their prices. These results suggest that strategic considerations lie at the heart of restaurant pricing and turnover.

How the U.S. economy resembles a (very) big business

This article presents basic tools for measuring different business lines’ contributions to the U.S. economy’s business cycles, and it applies these to measure the exposure of a large conglomerate to macroeconomic risks.Economics ; Income

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Dynamics of Retail Trade Industries on the U.S.-Canada Border

Consumers living near the U.S.-Canada border can shift their expenditures between the two countries, so real exchange rate fluctuations can act as demand shocks to border areas' retail trade industries. Using annual county-level data, we estimate the effects of real exchange rates on the number of establishments and their average payroll in border counties for four retail industries. In three of the four industries we consider, the number of operating establishments responds either contemporaneously or with a lag of one year to real exchange rate movements. For these industries, the response of retailers' average size is less pronounced. The rapid response of net entry is inconsistent with any model of persistent deviations from purchasing power parity that depends on retailers' costs of changing nominal prices.

Real exchange rates and retail trade on the U.S.-Canada border

Foreign exchange rates ; Retail trade

Real exchange rate fluctuations and the dynamics of retail trade industries on the U.S.-Canada border

Consumers living near the U.S.-Canada border can shift their expenditures between the two countries, so real exchange rate fluctuations can act as demand shocks to border areas' retailers. Using annual county-level data, we estimate the effects of real exchange rates on the number of establishments and their average employment in border counties for four retail industries. In three of the four industries we consider, the number of operating establishments responds either contemporaneously or with a lag of one year, so long-run changes in net entry in fact occur quickly enough to matter for short-run fluctuations.Foreign exchange rates ; Retail trade

The macroeconomic transition to high household debt

Aggressive deregulation of the household debt market in the early 1980s triggered innovations that greatly reduced the required home equity of U.S. households, allowing them to cash-out a large part of accumulated equity. In 1982, home equity equaled 71 percent of GDP; so this generated a borrowing shock of huge macroeconomic proportions. The combination of increasing household debt from 43 to 56 percent of GDP with high interest rates during the 1982-1990 period is consistent with such a shock to households’ demand for funds. This paper uses a quantitative general equilibrium model of lending from the wealthy to the middle class to evaluate the positive and normative aspects of the transition to a high debt economy. Using the model, we interpret evidence on the changing distribution of assets and debt as well as macro time series since 1982.Finance, Personal ; Households - Economic aspects

The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization

Market innovations following the financial reforms of the early 1980s relaxed collateral constraints on household borrowing. The present paper examines the contribution of this development to the macroeconomic stabilization that occurred shortly thereafter. The model combines collateral constraints on households with heterogeneity of thrift in a calibrated general equilibrium setup. We use this tool to characterize the business cycle implications of lowering required down payments and rates of amortization for durable goods purchases as in the early 1980s. The model predicts that this relaxation of collateral constraints can explain a large fraction of the actual volatility decline in hours worked, output, household debt, and household durable goods purchases.

Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt

Aggressive deregulation of the mortgage market in the early 1980s triggered innovations that greatly reduced the required home equity of U.S. households. This allowed households to cash-out a large part of accumulated equity, which equaled 71 percent of GDP in 1982. A borrowing surge followed: Household debt increased from 43 to 62 percent of GDP in the 1982- 2000 period. What are the welfare implications of such a reform for borrowers and savers? This paper uses a calibrated general equilibrium model of lending from the wealthy to the middle class to evaluate these effects quantitatively.Debt ; Mortgage loans ; Welfare