Modeling the near-UV band of GK stars, Paper II: NLTE models

We present a grid of atmospheric models and synthetic spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for late-type dwarfs and giants of solar and 1/3 solar metallicity with many opacity sources computed in self-consistent Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE), and compare them to the LTE grid of Short & Hauschildt (2010) (Paper I). We describe, for the first time, how the NLTE treatment affects the thermal equilibrium of the atmospheric structure (T(tau) relation) and the SED as a finely sampled function of Teff, log g, and [A/H] among solar metallicity and mildly metal poor red giants. We compare the computed SEDs to the library of observed spectrophotometry described in Paper I across the entire visible band, and in the blue and red regions of the spectrum separately. We find that for the giants of both metallicities, the NLTE models yield best fit Teff values that are ~30 to 90 K lower than those provided by LTE models, while providing greater consistency between \log g values, and, for Arcturus, Teff values, fitted separately to the blue and red spectral regions. There is marginal evidence that NLTE models give more consistent best fit Teff values between the red and blue bands for earlier spectral classes among the solar metallicity GK giants than they do for the later classes, but no model fits the blue band spectrum well for any class. For the two dwarf spectral classes that we are able to study, the effect of NLTE on derived parameters is less significant.Comment: Submitted to The Astrophysical Journal. Observed spectrophotometric library, and grids of NLTE and LTE) synthetic spectra for GK stars available at http://www.ap.smu.ca/~ishort/PHOENI

Character Displacement in the Midst of Substantial Background Evolution in Anolis Lizard Island Populations

Negative interactions between species can generate divergent selection that causes character displacement. However, other processes cause similar divergence. We use spatial and temporal replication across island populations of Anolis lizards to assess the importance of negative interactions in driving trait shifts. Previous work showed that the establishment of Anolis sagrei on islands drove resident Anolis carolinensis to perch higher and evolve larger toepads. To further test the interaction\u27s causality and predictability, we resurveyed a subset of islands nine years later. Anolis sagrei had established on one island between surveys. We found that A. carolinensis on this island now perch higher and have larger toepads. However, toepad morphology change on this island was not distinct from shifts on six other islands whose Anolis community composition had not changed. Thus, the presence of A. sagrei only partly explains A. carolinensis trait variation across space and time. We also found that A. carolinensis on islands with previously established A. sagrei now perch higher than a decade ago, and that current A. carolinensis perch height is correlated with A. sagrei density. Our results suggest that character displacement likely interacts with other evolutionary processes in this system, and that temporal data are key to detecting such interactions

Characteristics of service users and provider organisations associated with experience of out of hours general practitioner care in England: population based cross sectional postal questionnaire survey.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the experience of users of out of hours general practitioner services in England, UK. DESIGN: Population based cross sectional postal questionnaire survey. SETTING: General Practice Patient Survey 2012-13. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Potential associations between sociodemographic factors (including ethnicity and ability to take time away from work during working hours to attend a healthcare consultation) and provider organisation type (not for profit, NHS, or commercial) and service users' experience of out of hours care (timeliness, confidence and trust in the out of hours clinician, and overall experience of the service), rated on a scale of 0-100. Which sociodemographic/provider characteristics were associated with service users' experience, the extent to which any observed differences could be because of clustering of service users of a particular sociodemographic group within poorer scoring providers, and the extent to which observed differences in experience varied across types of provider. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 35%; 971,232/2,750,000 patients returned surveys. Data from 902,170 individual service users were mapped through their registered practice to one of 86 providers of out of hours GP care with known organisation type. Commercial providers of out of hours GP care were associated with poorer reports of overall experience of care, with a mean difference of -3.13 (95% confidence interval -4.96 to -1.30) compared with not for profit providers. Asian service users reported lower scores for all three experience outcomes than white service users (mean difference for overall experience of care -3.62, -4.36 to -2.89), as did service users who were unable to take time away from work compared with service users who did not work (mean difference for overall experience of care -4.73, -5.29 to -4.17). CONCLUSIONS: Commercial providers of out of hours GP care were associated with poorer experience of care. Targeted interventions aimed at improving experience for patients from ethnic minorities and patients who are unable to take time away from work might be warranted

Acute changes in mood induced by subthalamic deep brain stimulation in Parkinson disease are modulated by psychiatric diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN DBS) reduces Parkinson disease (PD) motor symptoms but has unexplained, variable effects on mood. OBJECTIVE: The study tested the hypothesis that pre-existing mood and/or anxiety disorders or increased symptom severity negatively affects mood response to STN DBS. METHODS: Thirty-eight PD participants with bilateral STN DBS and on PD medications were interviewed with Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders (SCID) and completed Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Spielberger State Anxiety Inventory (SSAI) self-reports. Subsequently, during OFF and optimal ON (clinical settings) STN DBS conditions and while off PD medications, motor function was assessed with the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS, part III), and participants rated their mood with Visual Analogue Scales (VAS), and again completed SSAI. VAS mood variables included anxiety, apathy, valence and emotional arousal. RESULTS: STN DBS improved UPDRS scores and mood. Unexpectedly, PD participants diagnosed with current anxiety or mood disorders experienced greater STN DBS-induced improvement in mood than those diagnosed with remitted disorders or who were deemed as having never met threshold criteria for diagnosis. BDI and SSAI scores did not modulate mood response to STN DBS, indicating that clinical categorical diagnosis better differentiates mood response to STN DBS than self-rated symptom severity. SCID diagnosis, BDI and SSAI scores did not modulate motor response to STN DBS. CONCLUSIONS: PD participants diagnosed with current mood or anxiety disorders are more sensitive to STN DBS-induced effects on mood, possibly indicating altered basal ganglia circuitry in this group

Photometric Supernova Cosmology with BEAMS and SDSS-II

Supernova cosmology without spectroscopic confirmation is an exciting new frontier which we address here with the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) algorithm and the full three years of data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey II Supernova Survey (SDSS-II SN). BEAMS is a Bayesian framework for using data from multiple species in statistical inference when one has the probability that each data point belongs to a given species, corresponding in this context to different types of supernovae with their probabilities derived from their multi-band lightcurves. We run the BEAMS algorithm on both Gaussian and more realistic SNANA simulations with of order 10^4 supernovae, testing the algorithm against various pitfalls one might expect in the new and somewhat uncharted territory of photometric supernova cosmology. We compare the performance of BEAMS to that of both mock spectroscopic surveys and photometric samples which have been cut using typical selection criteria. The latter typically are either biased due to contamination or have significantly larger contours in the cosmological parameters due to small data-sets. We then apply BEAMS to the 792 SDSS-II photometric supernovae with host spectroscopic redshifts. In this case, BEAMS reduces the area of the (\Omega_m,\Omega_\Lambda) contours by a factor of three relative to the case where only spectroscopically confirmed data are used (297 supernovae). In the case of flatness, the constraints obtained on the matter density applying BEAMS to the photometric SDSS-II data are \Omega_m(BEAMS)=0.194\pm0.07. This illustrates the potential power of BEAMS for future large photometric supernova surveys such as LSST.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, submitted to Ap

Current trends in the application of causal inference methods to pooled longitudinal observational infectious disease studies-A protocol for a methodological systematic review

INTRODUCTION: Pooling (or combining) and analysing observational, longitudinal data at the individual level facilitates inference through increased sample sizes, allowing for joint estimation of study- and individual-level exposure variables, and better enabling the assessment of rare exposures and diseases. Empirical studies leveraging such methods when randomization is unethical or impractical have grown in the health sciences in recent years. The adoption of so-called causal methods to account for both/either measured and/or unmeasured confounders is an important addition to the methodological toolkit for understanding the distribution, progression, and consequences of infectious diseases (IDs) and interventions on IDs. In the face of the Covid-19 pandemic and in the absence of systematic randomization of exposures or interventions, the value of these methods is even more apparent. Yet to our knowledge, no studies have assessed how causal methods involving pooling individual-level, observational, longitudinal data are being applied in ID-related research. In this systematic review, we assess how these methods are used and reported in ID-related research over the last 10 years. Findings will facilitate evaluation of trends of causal methods for ID research and lead to concrete recommendations for how to apply these methods where gaps in methodological rigor are identified. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will apply MeSH and text terms to identify relevant studies from EBSCO (Academic Search Complete, Business Source Premier, CINAHL, EconLit with Full Text, PsychINFO), EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science. Eligible studies are those that apply causal methods to account for confounding when assessing the effects of an intervention or exposure on an ID-related outcome using pooled, individual-level data from 2 or more longitudinal, observational studies. Titles, abstracts, and full-text articles, will be independently screened by two reviewers using Covidence software. Discrepancies will be resolved by a third reviewer. This systematic review protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020204104)

Results from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge

We report results from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge (SNPCC), a publicly released mix of simulated supernovae (SNe), with types (Ia, Ibc, and II) selected in proportion to their expected rate. The simulation was realized in the griz filters of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with realistic observing conditions (sky noise, point-spread function and atmospheric transparency) based on years of recorded conditions at the DES site. Simulations of non-Ia type SNe are based on spectroscopically confirmed light curves that include unpublished non-Ia samples donated from the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP), the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS), and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II). A spectroscopically confirmed subset was provided for training. We challenged scientists to run their classification algorithms and report a type and photo-z for each SN. Participants from 10 groups contributed 13 entries for the sample that included a host-galaxy photo-z for each SN, and 9 entries for the sample that had no redshift information. Several different classification strategies resulted in similar performance, and for all entries the performance was significantly better for the training subset than for the unconfirmed sample. For the spectroscopically unconfirmed subset, the entry with the highest average figure of merit for classifying SNe~Ia has an efficiency of 0.96 and an SN~Ia purity of 0.79. As a public resource for the future development of photometric SN classification and photo-z estimators, we have released updated simulations with improvements based on our experience from the SNPCC, added samples corresponding to the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and the SDSS, and provided the answer keys so that developers can evaluate their own analysis.Comment: accepted by PAS