Subjective Versus Objective Economic Measures, A fuzzy logic exercise

It is rather evident that there is much more (statistical) information about objective aggregates, such as inflation, output or unemployment than that concerning subjective aggregates, such as well-being, satisfaction, confidence or even expectations. Due to its characteristics, fuzzy logic can and should indeed be used to understand how some of those subjective measures can be approximated by objective ones. This task is accomplished in the paper by the use of Portuguese data on consumer confidence - the subjective economic measure - and on the unemployment rate - the objective economic measure -. The results clearly indicate that to be a worthwhile exercise as the clear importance of unemployment on confidence is only revealed by the fuzzy logic approximation

Understanding the Election Results in Portugal, A spatial econometrics point of view

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric echniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of electoral cycles whether in their political versions or in their partisan versions. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. This being said, the main objective of the paper is to analyse the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the partisan viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters’ ideology and the election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal

Universities and economically depressed regions: how ‘attractive’ is the University of Évora?

As it is well known, universities constitute sources of important multiplier effects on the economic activity of the regions where they are located. Plainly, in the case of economically depressed regions, the importance of universities becomes higher. This is certainly the case with the University of Évora as being located in the Alentejo, one of the poorest regions at the European Union level, it have been contributing to the attraction of economic activity. Besides the direct effect on the economic activity of the Alentejo, the University of Évora also have been exerting demographic effects, on the one hand, by allowing people to become residents on the region and, on the other hand, by attracting students which normally become residents during the period of time required to conclude their academic degrees. The paper explores this last effect by the analysis of how and why the University of Évora is chosen by students coming from all over the country (and from abroad). This analysis, which is done through the use of econometric techniques, also indicates which are the decisive factors for the attraction exerted by the University of Évora, in general, and by its degree courses, in particular, on the candidate students. KEYWORDS: Decision Analysis, Discrete Choice Models, Portugal, Universities JEL CLASSIFICATION: C21, R12, R23

Um Exercício de Simulação de Ocupação dos Espaços Rurais e Urbanos

As alterações na paisagem que se podem detectar, mais facilmente sobretudo quando se comparam duas realidades suficientemente distantes no tempo, resultam de um processo contínuo de interacção entre elementos, nomeadamente estados da natureza e pessoas, os quais formam um sistema, regra geral, complexo. Esta complexidade torna-se, do nosso ponto de vista, particularmente interessante quando envolve ou resulta das decisões tomadas pelas pessoas (em função dos seus interesses e/ou características) quanto à sua localização num determinado espaço (com determinadas características). Neste âmbito, uma melhor (ou mais fácil) resposta à questão: Como responder à desertificação e degradação dos espaços rurais e ao congestionamento e alastramento dos espaços urbanos? passa pela (melhor) compreensão prévia dos factores causais do processo dinâmico conducente àquela alteração nas paisagens rural e urbana. Uma das formas de (melhor) compreender este processo dinâmico, regra geral, complexo, consiste no recurso a exercícios de simulação do tipo ‘agent-based’, tal como os modelos de modelização urbana desenvolvidos por Felsen, Watson e Wilenski (veja-se a ‘Urban Modeling Suite’ em http://ccl.northwestern.edu/cities/#urban-suite). O objectivo deste trabalho é assim o de, em termos pedagógicos, ilustrar o uso deste género de modelos de simulação de ocupação dos espaços rurais e urbanos e, em termos científicos, estender/modificar estes modelos de forma a, do nosso ponto de vista, melhor compreender porque se assiste à desertificação dos espaços rurais por contrapartida do congestionamento dos espaços urbanos

Economic Policies and Elections, A principal-agent point of view

One of the most crucial lessons to be taken from the literature on electoral business cycles is that the short-run electorally-induced fluctuations prejudice the long-run welfare. Since the very first studies on the matter, some authors offered suggestions as to what should be done against this electorally-induced instability. The problem assumes an interesting form, given that we can presume that if electoral business cycles do exist it is because voters, being ignorant, allow them to exist or, indeed, because the government, in the case of implementing policies that are optimal in the long-run for society, may be electorally punished by voters. As the government’s optimal policies depend crucially on the behaviour of voters, the paper analyses the circumstances under which a non-representative behaviour of voters may induce the government to behave as representative of the society’s interests (without punishing it). As is well-known, governments may have the temptation to exploit the Phillips curve. This discretionary way of making economic policy generates an inflation bias. The literature has then evolved to analyse possible punishment strategies in order to avoid that discretionary behaviour. Traditionally it is considered that the punishment takes the form of people considering announced policies as non-credible. This introduces the problem of arranging the right mechanism or moment in time to implement these punishment strategies. It turns out that elections are indeed the appropriate mechanism to punish or to reward the past behaviour of the incumbent. In fact, elections can be used to turn voters, i.e. the public into the principal who has all the incentives to motivate the government, as the agent, to use the appropriate policies. The paper analyses the circumstances under which an optimal contract can be established between the electorate and the government in order to guarantee that the government behaves in accordance with the true interests of the society

Crescimento Económico e Ciclos Partidários: Uma Clarificação da Relação Existente

As relações que existem entre alguns aspectos económicos, nomeadamente o crescimento, e alguns aspectos políticos, nomeadamente o nível de democracia, foram alvo de algum interesse teórico e também empírico (Alesina e Perotti, 1994; Alesina e Rodrik, 1994; Alesina et al., 1996; Barro, 1996). Neste campo, um aspecto em particular, essencialmente ligado à democracia, como sendo o das relações existentes entre os ciclos partidários e o crescimento económico foi alvo de alguma controvérsia (Alesina, 1992; Alesina e Roubini, 1992; Alesina et al., 1993; Alesina et al., 1997; Gärtner, 1994a; Gärtner, 1999a; Gärtner, 1999b). O principal objectivo da comunicação é, assim, o de clarificar aquela controvérsia, para tal recorrendo a uma fundamentação original da curva de oferta agregada, enquanto paradigma de base aos modelos mais recentes de ciclos partidários. Tal conduzir-nos-á à questão da persistência no produto, a qual se revela de crucial importância para a gestão da política económica com fins, simultaneamente, eleitorais e ideológicos (Gärtner, 1996; Gärtner, 1997b; Gärtner, 1999a; Gärtner, 2000).Como objectivo subsidiário da comunicação, é considerado o caso Português enquanto teste de verificação empírica das eventuais relações entre os níveis de crescimento económico (em valor absoluto ou relativo) que têm vindo a caracterizar Portugal desde 1980 e a ideologia dos partidos que suportaram os diversos governos desde aquela data

Understanding the transition to work for first degree university graduates in Portugal

A traditional way of looking at the importance of universities assumes that these are sources of positive effects from the viewpoint of the inputs. In accordance to this perspective, the importance of a university can be measured by its regional/national multiplier effects. This perspective can be complemented with the analysis of the issues associated with the transition to work by their graduates. The paper thus analyses the factors that may be important to explain the time to obtain the first job by first degree students, using a sample of students from one university in Portugal. In doing so, we estimate several specifications of discrete-time duration models. The results show that there are significant differences among the students from the several courses and highlight the importance of the final mark in the course. Nevertheless, in particular, we conclude that there are no significant differences between the area of Economics and Management and the area of Engineering and that these study areas are the most successful ones. We also did not find any significant differences between male and female students. Finally, we also conclude that there are significant differences on the probability of leaving unemployment among the several years considered in the sample, which reflects the business cycle.

On the Economic Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Consumer Confidence

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed economic aspects is the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Expanding previous work on this matter, this chapter considers a fuzzy logic methodology in order to uncover the relationship that exists between the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence level for a large group of European Union countries, in the period 1995-2015. It is concluded that this relationship is stronger than apparently it looks, especially in certain countries. This result should therefore be used as an extra argument in making economic decisions leading to the diminishment of unemployment, which will boost economic confidence

Crescimento Económico e Desemprego em Portugal, Uma Explicação Adicional para a sua Relação

O baixo nível de crescimento económico apresenta-se como um problema cuja necessidade de resolução se mostra particularmente evidente em Portugal. À luz da renovada Agenda de Lisboa, este problema exige soluções que resultem de alterações estruturais, inclusive ao nível das instituições, em que, naturalmente, o lado da oferta da economia desempenha um papel crucial. Deste ponto de vista, ao nível da União Europeia, o Comité da Política Económica tem vindo a apontar como reforma estrutural prioritária uma forte promoção de estratégias económicas de crescimento através de estímulos à produtividade e às taxas de emprego num ambiente de políticas fiscais sustentáveis. Não obstante este facto, é também certo que as políticas estruturais de oferta não podem ignorar a influência positiva/negativa que o lado da procura exerce sobre aquela, sobretudo por via das expectativas que algumas das suas variáveis componentes encerram. Este é evidentemente o caso dos indicadores de confiança (por exemplo, dos consumidores ou dos investidores), os quais, sendo por natureza prospectivos, são considerados, por alguns, indicadores avançados do ciclo económico, até porque se revelam parcialmente explicativos de despesas correntes (por exemplo, de consumo ou de investimento), com efeitos multiplicadores subsequentes. Admitindo este facto, neste trabalho estende-se o tipo de relação entre o desemprego e o nível de confiança, já detectada em trabalhos anteriores, ao crescimento económico, fornecendo, assim, uma explicação adicional para a relação existente entre os níveis de crescimento e de desemprego em Portugal

Notas de Política Económica

Texto de Apoio à unidade curricular de Política Económica (Licenciatura em Economia, Universidade de Évora, Ano Lectivo: 2013|14)