Fact-based Agent modeling for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In multi-agent systems, agents need to interact and collaborate with other agents in environments. Agent modeling is crucial to facilitate agent interactions and make adaptive cooperation strategies. However, it is challenging for agents to model the beliefs, behaviors, and intentions of other agents in non-stationary environment where all agent policies are learned simultaneously. In addition, the existing methods realize agent modeling through behavior cloning which assume that the local information of other agents can be accessed during execution or training. However, this assumption is infeasible in unknown scenarios characterized by unknown agents, such as competition teams, unreliable communication and federated learning due to privacy concerns. To eliminate this assumption and achieve agent modeling in unknown scenarios, Fact-based Agent modeling (FAM) method is proposed in which fact-based belief inference (FBI) network models other agents in partially observable environment only based on its local information. The reward and observation obtained by agents after taking actions are called facts, and FAM uses facts as reconstruction target to learn the policy representation of other agents through a variational autoencoder. We evaluate FAM on various Multiagent Particle Environment (MPE) and compare the results with several state-of-the-art MARL algorithms. Experimental results show that compared with baseline methods, FAM can effectively improve the efficiency of agent policy learning by making adaptive cooperation strategies in multi-agent reinforcement learning tasks, while achieving higher returns in complex competitive-cooperative mixed scenarios

Momentum Contrastive Autoencoder: Using Contrastive Learning for Latent Space Distribution Matching in WAE

Wasserstein autoencoder (WAE) shows that matching two distributions is equivalent to minimizing a simple autoencoder (AE) loss under the constraint that the latent space of this AE matches a pre-specified prior distribution. This latent space distribution matching is a core component of WAE, and a challenging task. In this paper, we propose to use the contrastive learning framework that has been shown to be effective for self-supervised representation learning, as a means to resolve this problem. We do so by exploiting the fact that contrastive learning objectives optimize the latent space distribution to be uniform over the unit hyper-sphere, which can be easily sampled from. We show that using the contrastive learning framework to optimize the WAE loss achieves faster convergence and more stable optimization compared with existing popular algorithms for WAE. This is also reflected in the FID scores on CelebA and CIFAR-10 datasets, and the realistic generated image quality on the CelebA-HQ dataset

Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift